Oxbridge Aspirants: Sep 2021

[funkysatsuma]

Not sure if it's too early to start this thread in Nov 2019 :)

DS would like Cambridge Economics as the first choice. Would like to know where can we get some help to prepare for the ECAA test - appreciate any pointers/links. Thanks in advance

Thankyou for the constructive advice Sammy. Yes it is tough but he’s had a lot of rejection in his life and it is what it is. We’re going to Exeter tomorrow and staying overnight. Making a mini-break! Never been to Exeter before, but I’m going to be super-positive. The good thing is, there are some courses he’s applying to which a 4-year international programmes where he’d have a year overseas. This is something Cambridge doesn’t offer. It will all work out fine and what will be will be! He’s finished his EPQ anyway, so thank god for that. But in Sept they have a two week exam timetable for the predicted grades, so are basically studying all summer.

Taking one's life in one's hands, but...

On the point about,every year, people apply with grades in hand- yes, of course they do. However, normally when they do this, they will go through the whole application process and be in competition with the normal chronological year's cohort. Their grades judged against the predicted grades of that cohort, their PS ditto, their interview performance. If they get that far. and there's the difference - in a normal year, even those applying with super grades on hand may not do well enough in that year's competition to get a place. No one says,well, if they'd been competing with their chronological cohort, they'd have been in, so even if this year's chronological cohort is stronger overall, we'll give them a place regardless?

This year, of course, that group will be those applying with suitable CAGs in hand. Plus new 'year 14' applicants taking the October exams (who presumably will have what amounts to an unconditional if they get an offer in January, if they have already met their offer grades by then).

However, this time, there will be a number of applicants who will essentially get 2021 places on 2020's performance. The only part of the process they will have to go through is getting the grades for their existing offer. Which in a normal year would have ceased to be an offer at all on results day, when they didn't meet it. This may turn out to be only a handful overall, but worst case scenario, could be most of the 'over offer' contingent. After all, they were predicted to get the right grades back in September 2019, just as those whose CAGs subsequently met them. (Note, Cambridge puts no conditions on whyone's CAGs 'failed' - thei Admissions page info doesn't say that it has to be due to the nasty, unfair algorithm, it could be that one's originally A* predicting teachers saw subsequent falling off of effort / performance sufficiecint to make their assessment only an A and the algorithm merely agreed).

It's this 'unknown' that is the issue.

Thankyou Marching. Yes, not having to re-apply could make a big difference potentially - that’s all I’m saying. Very different to the situation that happens every year when students re-apply with grades in hand and have to go through the whole process again.

I’ve just attached this which is the admissions stats for humanities (yes I’m sure certain people have seen it all before, but this is new to me so apologies). Not only can you see the massive variations in success rates for different courses (almost 50% for Classics compared to only 11% for Architecture for instance), but you can see the gap between offers and acceptances - eg 36 offers for Anglo Saxon of which only 19 accepted / were able to accept. Yes, some of these may have decided to study Anglo Saxon elsewhere possibly, but this is quite a niche course and one for which I doubt international students are queuing up for, so I’m not sure where else they would have deemed preferable to Cambridge for this kind of course? So, although this info is not made explicit, it’s fairly safe to assume that 17 of the 36 students narrowly missed the grades that August.

I doubt they missed the grades by much in most cases, given they were in a position to apply in the first place. So you can see how, even if only half of them were able to nudge the grades upwards in a “second crack of the whip” as a pp put it, this could have repercussions for students applying in the following year for that course, given there’s only 36 places across the university. That probably amounts to one or two places max per college and it may be that the following year’s students are unwittingly applying to colleges where the “one place” has already been taken.

My DS is not applying for Anglo- Saxon by the way! But I don’t think it’s whining to wonder about this - it’s a reasonable question when you look at the stats alone. Oxford is very different because they don’t over-offer by nearly as much.

It would be a first crack at the whip though wouldnt it? Maybe Cambridge are recognising that while the algorithm isnt nasty or unfair , it is an unknown and they want to be fair to those students who they have already decided they might want to teach based on the information they have . They have already told IB offer holders who have missed their grade that they will be making decisions once the A level results are in so I assume this means they have some reservations/concerns.

Thank you to people now understanding my earlier point, which is that the "over offer" people who don't make the grade will not have to reapply if they improve their grade(s). I think this was a knee-jerk sop made by Cambridge too early without thinking about the ramifications. And, as 4Catsonabed observes, will have a particular effect on some of the niche courses, which perhaps won't have any places for the 2021 new applicants.

There might also be the knock-on effect of more people piling into an Oxford application if it becomes apparent that Cambridge is full up or at least has a good percentage fewer places up for grabs.

Possibly yes. As Marching said, it’s the unknown. But still, it’s a second chance that is not happening at Oxford or any other uni, as far as I’m aware?

It may amount to only a negligible difference - or not. Nobody knows. I’m not making a value judgement on anyone or anything. It’s simply that when you see the stats and what happens in a normal year, you can also see how POTENTIALLY, there could be quite significant implications for 2021 admissions.

Sorry, that reply was to hobbema.

I completely understand the concern about the unknown, but there are unknowns each year tbf. I only flicked in a comment when Cambridge was told to 'prepare for a bulge year', which I found quite funny. The Y12s can always re-apply.

In terms of numbers and 'competition', for the overwhelming majority of subjects (NatSci and Engineering excepted, possibly one or two others), more students apply per place to Oxford than Cambridge anyway, so given the tiny numbers likely with this offer from Cambridge, it's not a huge deal. I'm amazed at some of the Cambridge stats eg four applicants to a particular college for Theology etc. To the extent that I'm not clear that I'm reading them right.

We just over analysed every single figure, statistic, trends; 'easier' colleges to get into deferrals, re-appliers etc. it does not really matter too much and have other options should it not go to plan

This is the danger. I think I'm really saying don't worry, or even don't think too much - in the context of an Oxbridge application I'm pretty sure it can do more harm than good. Hence the 'just chuck your hat into the ring' comment above.

Reminds me of parents' dinner at ds's college when the mother of one of ds's compatriots asked me, "What made you pick this college... whoops! What made your ds pick this college?" We had a laugh and admitted that we had soooo done the research for them!!

I didn’t say Cambridge had better do anything. You have misinterpreted that and gone off on one.

What I meant to say is, just as Cambridge have taken steps to reassure this year’s applicants re- the uncertainties, I wish there could perhaps be some reassurance to next year’s cohort that the university does not expect this system of guaranteed deferrals will have significant negative repercussions on 2021 places.

I realise they can’t provide any reassurance yet, because they simply don’t know the numbers. However, I’d be very surprised if they hadn’t factored in the potential ramifications at all. I’d be surprised if they were happy to only offer ten, rather than 19 places for Anglo Saxon to 2021 applicants for instance; or have a situation where, unbeknown to applicants, some subjects are effectively not available in some colleges for 2021. I would hope that they will try and make things as fair for the 2021 cohort as possible, as they have for this year’s applicants. That’s it.

I expect someone's storming around calling for the head of the bright spark who came up with the idea of guaranteed places after re-taking. Perhaps they're strong-arming OfQual or whoever to make the A* grade boundaries in the Autumn exams 150% in order to stop wholesale improvement!

Also, as to a “bulge” year, these were the words of the university admissions person at DS’ school who told us he had reason to believe that there would be a significant “spillover” effect at Cambridge for to the guaranteed deferrals system (due to how much Cambridge over-offer by), but he also expects Cambridge will also take steps to endure the same amount of places are available for the following year. So yes, effectively that would mean a bulge year, to some extent. To what extent, we have no idea as yet.

I expect someone's storming around calling for the head of the bright spark who came up with the idea of guaranteed places after re-taking

Yes I reckon so too Irma. Oxford sent a message at a very early stage to say the grades this year will be treated exactly as grades in any other year (which is bound to include their review for those with missed grades - they give themselves total leeway). Might have been better for Cambridge to do that too - but Cambridge is very grade focussed, so that must have played into their thinking.

It's not exactly a vote of confidence for the predicted grades system. Although I don't suppose it took into account those who are last-minute crammers and pull the cat out of the bag (ie boys!).

@4catsonabed

Thankyou for the constructive advice Sammy. Yes it is tough but he’s had a lot of rejection in his life and it is what it is. We’re going to Exeter tomorrow and staying overnight. Making a mini-break! Never been to Exeter before, but I’m going to be super-positive. The good thing is, there are some courses he’s applying to which a 4-year international programmes where he’d have a year overseas. This is something Cambridge doesn’t offer. It will all work out fine and what will be will be! He’s finished his EPQ anyway, so thank god for that. But in Sept they have a two week exam timetable for the predicted grades, so are basically studying all summer.

Thats great your going to Exeter , I hope you enjoy it:) Daughter accepted her Lancaster offer about a week after her Oxford rejection back in January, and we had been back to Lancaster in February and going again in August. Just to walk round the campus again :). Definitely worth going on a walkabout during the 6 weeks hols, just incase open days are not open in the Autumn.

One thing I noticed last year was that because Oxbridge applicants are early applications; when the other universities which had an interview day I was chatting to the parents (at 2 universities ). I just posed the question about whether they had applied to Oxbridge, and about 90% of the parents said their child were Oxbridge applicants. Although UCAS doesnt share to other unis what your other choices are to the university, I'm pretty sure they have a fair idea they was Oxbridge. Oxbridge or not though, I really do think the early application was a contributing factor as it shows your eager and prompt so that can only be a good thing :) for my daughter they reduced their offers/unconditional :)

So, although this info is not made explicit, it’s fairly safe to assume that 17 of the 36 students narrowly missed the grades that August.

This debate has been had many times on this board. It's not safe to assume this: Anglo Saxon does attract international students & there could easily be several students who declined offers in favour of places elsewhere. Also UK based students do occasionally decline offers, especially in niche subjects where there are other world leading institutions in the UK. Some students particularly want to stay in London, for example, and will decline Oxbridge for LSE, Imperial, SOAS etc.

I think it's a perfectly reasonable conclusion that some students missed their grades but it could potentially be as low as 6-12.

For those worrying about places for 2021: remember that the government has said that EU students will need to pay full international fees. This will price many EU students out of studying in the UK, even at top institutions like Oxbridge. Many other international students may choose to go to countries that have handled Covid better.

Of course it also remains to be seen if next summer’s A-levels and GCSEs end up being part-teacher assessed anyway.

This is not a whinge btw - all of mine (of which one has A-levels, one GCSE next year) have been the very fortunate ones who have had full online teaching since March. But I’m aware of a lot of children who have had next to nothing, so I wonder if teacher assessment may be a fairer way forward because at least it could possibly redress some of the gaps / inequalities? I don’t know?

Does anyone know when that the results of that D of E consultation will be published?

I have sympathy will all points of view. I actually think the last couple of years have been somewhat difficult with new courses and structures for GCSE. I think this year and next will be difficult, with a mix of assessed and examined.

DD would love to have been assessed last year, she would have been predicted all 9's, she only got a couple, a mark or two off in the rest, as she screwed up some exams. There are always winners and losers. There may be many winners this year who wouldn't have done so well in exams, but are assessed higher, but no-one is going to complain about that, and we will never know the "true" grades for this year, and that's unfair on them too.

I have said to DD she will just have to roll with the flow. TBH a part assessed and part examined ALevel next year would suit DD well, she is predicted 3 A*'s, but as with her GCSE's, she could well come unstuck in examinations.

You may well find that a number of students who decide take the plunge & apply after attending UNIQ/ HE+/ Sutton Trust events and summer schools simply don't bother in 2021. They won't have had the opportunities potential applicants have had in previous years to talk to the students and realise that Oxford & Cambridge aren't just reserved for private school pupils or those with exceptional GCSE grades, especially without end of year 12 exams to convince them that it is worth applying. I imagine that UCAS applications have been very low on the list of priorities this term for many state schools. The pressure to submit an early UCAS application alongside possible delayed end of year exams is bound to have an effect on the number applying.

When my daughter did physics at UNIQ last summer she was in a group of 10 at Balliol and about half applied to Oxford for 2020 and she was one of them. They use the summer school to help with their personal statements and also experience Oxford life and academics.
Below link is the UNIQ summer school program she attended for physics to give a general idea. Her friend at UNIQ who didnt get in is applying for next year even if he has to do an a'level exam that's delayed.
users.physics.ox.ac.uk/~huffman/MPhys/UNIQ/uniq2019.html

For number of admissions and applications for Oxford:
www.ox.ac.uk/sites/files/oxford/Annual%20Admissions%20Statistical%20Report%202020.pdf page 16 is last years. State school applications: 8914. independent schools applications: 4403.

12% for state school physics on offers wow that was a tough year.

At least they have run an online programme this summer, but it must still have been very difficult to participate fully if you're not in a household with easy internet access and you can only join in using a phone. DD loved the social aspects of UNIQ and is still in touch with her group from last summer.

Hoghgyni - yes you may well have valid points there. To be honest, even for applications to from the independent sector, there’s been no support with uni applications, apart from (in our case) a handout with dates on it. No PS support. For Oxbridge, no advice on colleges. Nobody has been inside any college or campus anywhere, but at least you can now visit various towns to get a feel for the place.

@Hoghgyni

At least they have run an online programme this summer, but it must still have been very difficult to participate fully if you're not in a household with easy internet access and you can only join in using a phone. DD loved the social aspects of UNIQ and is still in touch with her group from last summer.

Same, shes in contact with 2 people in her group. One is trying Oxford again next year, and the other will be studying at Imperial and my daughter is studying at Lancaster in september. Did DD apply in the end? She got to interview stage and that was as far as she got. She still loved her time even at interview stage as got to stay there for a few more days and got to see more of the town at christmas time. she applied to Merton but got to stay for interview at Jesus and had her 2nd at St hughs.