Oxford won’t be affected by deferrals any more than usual in 2021 because they haven’t announced guaranteed deferred places based on success in the Autumn exams. However, I do think it’s likely that Cambridge will be.
Think about it, A student is predicted AAA. The teachers obviously thought he / she is capable of these grades in the summer of 2019 - why would they not assess the student at these grades in April 2020 (barring something very drastic having taken place in the interim)? Particularly so, if the student has “proved” this grade assessment by getting through the Cambridge test / interview and earning a conditional offer.
But then the grades come out in August and one A* has been moderated down to an A.
I think in these circumstances, knowing that they don’t have to reapply and go through the whole process again, most students would feel cheated by this moderation and choose to focus on bumping that one grade up to the A*. Especially if it’s only one subject they have to focus on and they have a few months to revise.
If they had to go through the interviews etc again, with no certainty of another offer, then no. They would probably go to their insurance in most cases. But effectively, Cambridge students this year have two cracks of the whip, as a pp said.
For the course my DC is interested in, there are around 90 places. Spread across 30 Cambridge colleges, this averages at maybe 3 places per college. They give conditional offers to about 120 every year, knowing that 20-30 won’t make the grades in the actual A-levels. Let’s face it, most of this 20-30 will only miss the grades narrowly..
But this year, there is nothing to stop this 20-30 “retaking” and achieve the grades for a guaranteed place for 2021. So the 2021 cohort could potentially be competing for closer to 60 places, rather than 90, with 30 places having been secured before conditional offers are even sent out in January. This is the difference.