GCSEs for Russell Group

[BaffledByUnis]

NC as don't want to out myself.
DC has just started the lower sixth and school has already started talking about universities and other options. DC seems to have their heart set on a Russell Group uni and a quite traditional academic subject. All fine except DC's GCSEs were disappointing due to a heroically sustained lack of effort. One 8 (A*), one 7 (A) and a bunch of 5s (low B/high C).
Sixth form seems to have given us a whole different DC. DC is enthusiastic, engaged, loving school, but are they heading for disappointment and no offers if they only apply to RG unis with those GCSEs?
They've got plenty of time and could go and see a number of places before a final decision has to be made.
But, if RG IS possible with those GCSEs, with a great Personal Statement and predicted grades then I don't want to dissuade DC. I am, of course, assuming that the new improved DC will lead to a great Personal Statement and predicted grades. I fully realise that if not they will have to grow up and rethink.
It's simply that I would hate DC to take something they deem to be somehow less and lose their dream if the dream is achievable.
Are there any uni admissions people on here who could give me a advice?

The amount of weighting given to GCSE grades in the application process varies between different departments within the same university, and certainly between universites. Most will provide this information if you ask. With this information, your DC could strategically choose which courses to apply for.

Many people apply to one or two courses where the typical offer is higher than their predicted grades, and this gamble often pays off.

Most courses at most universities * are giving out offers to anyone who has the required GCSE grades listed on the course website (e.g. 5 in Maths and English, but can be 6 at some places so your DC should check this before applying) and whose predicted grades are close-ish to the typical offer.

• Obviously this doesn't apply to oversubscribed courses like medicine or veterinary medicine, or oversubscribed universites like Oxford, Cambridge, St Andrew's, LSE, Durham etc.

DC seems to have their heart set on a Russell Group uni and a quite traditional academic subject.

The first step would be for your DC to check the page for that course on each university's website, and check what GCSE requirements there are. A few places require a 6 in Maths or English for certain courses.

Once they have eliminated those places, they could contact the admissions departments of the remaining places on their shortlist to ask what relative weighting is given to predicted A-level grades vs GCSE grades.

Without knowing what subjects the GCSE grades were in and the degree subject area they’re looking at it’s hard to give advice.

But generally speaking they would be fine, unless it’s a course which needs a grade 6 in English, Maths or Science - this info would be on the university website pages.

Is she taking an A level in one of the subjects she got a 5 in? Grades are not always about the amount of work done for that subject, there is the issue of ability. She’s got a big gap to close. However, start looking but be realistic.

Thank you Iron, Still and Bubbles. DC checked the course requirements and meets those. They are fairly basic, 4 in English Lang and Maths. An essay subject is also required at A'level, but DC is good there too.
At the moment DC is studying the subject they got an 8 in and also one of the 5s and two new subjects, which is where the enthusiasm is really coming from. The preferred degree is in one of the new subjects, so there is time for them to change their mind. One subject will be dropped soon, so not doing 4.
Thank you for the tips, I will suggest that DC asks about the weighting between GCSE and predicted grades as that will help them narrow down their options.

I’ve been wondering this too as Ds is likely to not get very good GCSE’s.

However he will be doing a Btec in a subject he excels in is obsessed with (music) and along with theory & practical grades will probably do much better post 16.

I’m still researching and not come to any conclusion yet.

Hi Comefromaway
If you look at the Further Education section on the Alternatives to A levels thread there are some posts regarding Music Btec and entry to music in HE that might help you

My DSs had mediocre GCSEs, good ASs and excellent A levels ... each seem to cancel out the previous and they all got five offers from RG unis for popular arts subjects.

Moomin, that's been my worry. DC won't be doing ASs now the A'Levels are linear, so the most recent public exams will be the GCSEs. If they could get some other public exam(s) under their belt I would be more confident that they'd be able to choose an appropriate path for them.

I can't answer the question about the impact of GCSEs on uni offers but if it does impact negatively and your DC achieves excellent A levels they have options!

They can take a gap year and reapply with A level results in hand. Or go into Clearing on results day. There is also Adjustment on results day if results are better than predicted.

Sorry for my ignorance, raspberry, but do you know if they can use Clearing and Adjustment if they haven't got any offers?
I was wondering if a productive gap year and applying after the A'level results are known might be best for DC, but of course they can do both (light bulb moment). I assume there are no negative implications if they apply next year and get rejected and then apply with known grades to the same place and course a year later. Does anyone know this?
Thank you all so much for your positive help. I'm feeling a lot calmer and realise that I should trust DC.

What course is it? The difficulty of getting offers and need to write something sensible on a personal statement varies rather a lot.

I wouldn’t let her poor GCSEs put you off. My DS got mainly B for his GCSE again poor effort. He applied for RG universities and got conditional offers for all. He bagged A stars at A level . So as long as your DD is working let her apply for what she wants.

It will depend on which university. Russell group means nothing it's just a grouping and a few decided not to join at the time because they didn't like the politics. More I

More important is the course, models, teaching style etc. Good predicted grades (A's mostly) will get offers from many of the so called Russell group - one was giving places to kids with 3 c's this August despite their glossy brochure stating 3 A's! Low birth year this year.

There's always the option to take a gap year if results are exceptional too. My DD's friend got 2 a*'s and 2 A's and headed to Oxford today I think after a gap year because she was like your son, disappointing GCSEs

It is worth pointing out that many sixth form colleges/schools do their initial A Level predictions based on the GCSE results achieved. These are then adjusted at the end of the first year of sixth form, according to how well they are doing. So your DC will need to put the effort in if they want decent predicted grades by the crucial end of the first year.

But it is definitely worth working towards RG, or at least having it as the aspirational choice.

And I'm sure you know, there are plenty of NON-RG universities equally as good as RG. If not better, in certain subjects. Bath and St Andrews spring to mind. It shouldn't limit your choice.

Hi, I myself am currently going to Durham after taking a few years out to work and gain experience in other fields and I'd like to mention that it isn't always purely about the grades, I did an abysmal job during my GCSEs (tremendous lack of effort on my part - except maths where I placed all my attention). Even with low grades at GCSE I got fantastic grades in college. However, Durham uni didn't look at my grades all that much, they focused a lot more on my personal statement which most RG universities tend to do now to increase student diversity. As long as you meet the minimum requirement for grades you'll be fine with an amazing personal statement to boost yourself over any competition.

Thank you all so much for your encouraging responses.
Stuck, the universities on DC's list to view all happen to be RG. I don't know if that was intentional, but it is their choice of places to view. It struck me that they all seemed aspirational and when I looked them up they are all RG. I've looked at the birth rates and they are even lower for DC's year!
Cointreau, I have told DC that the summer exams will be massively important. I just hope more effort will be put in. DC is enjoying the A'level courses much more than GCSE, so fingers crossed.
Positive, DC has got quite a lot of good stuff for their Personal Statement already and I'm hoping that will be OK.
I'm loving the encouraging personal stories, thank you all. Feeling much happier about DC's potential options.

Baffled Clearing is for anyone, Adjustment is for those who have met offers but did better than predicted in A levels.

Some people will be in Clearing because of applying late, others because of not meeting their conditional offer. Some people change their mind about their course.

I think this year UCAS were allowed you to release yourself from an unconditional offer too.

It is worth pointing out that many sixth form colleges/schools do their initial A Level predictions based on the GCSE results achieved

This is what we have been told too. Ds1 has just started sixth form, each GCSE grade is given a point, all those points are added together and then divided by the total number of GCSEs taken to get their predicted grades. I am not sure how this works for each A level or whether it is a this child is a A* student, this one is a B thing as we haven't had it all added up yet.

They sit topic tests which are then measured against their GCSE point grade to see if they are on track.

The only thing stopping a child achieving outstanding results is the child. You DC has chosen to engage and this can have a huge impact on their final grade. I would encourage that.

raspberry, thanks, that's useful to know.
Captured, I'm struggling to get my head around that. What would a physics GCSE grade tell you about the student's potential in say History and vice versa. I'll have to check with DC how their school operated, but I was hoping that they would use next summer's internal exam grades along with general attainment throughout the year for the predicted grades to go on their UCAS application. Also hoping that DC's new found enthusiasm would carry them through.

My child has also just started lower 6th.
We've been told that predicted grades right now are based on national statistics (for example, what is the average A level grade in physics achieved by someone who got an A/7 at GCSE in physics) but that they will quickly personalise those based on in-house assessments. The first set of these are in the next few weeks. DC is doing mainly essay subjects and I think the tests will be to look at the basic ability to answer questions/structure essays etc.
By this time next year the school needs to have quite clear predicted grades so I think there is a lot of testing that will go on this year.
This is my first time going through this but my DH is a sixth form tutor elsewhere. His feeling is that most universities pay more attention to predicted grades than GCSEs unless it's a hugely over-subscribed university or course. I believe - though I could have got the wrong end of the stock - that universities are also aware of the school's past history of accuracy in predictions and this might play a role. DH constantly bemoans parents who are begging him to over-predict as he says it benefits no one, least of all their child but also future children if the school gets a poor reputation.

Cannot recommend gap year enough. Gives them time to grow up, you know where you can apply with a fighting chance and you get first dibs at accommodation!

Can you say what the likely subject is?

Some courses are far more competitive than others and they will filter based on GCSE grades. I’ve known a student with 10 A at GCSE and all A predictions for A Level not get an offer for LSE and one with ‘only’ 7 A* not get an offer for Durham - both in Economics related subjects.

Some subjects are more competitive than others. There will be courses your DC can get onto at RG unis, but not all everywhere.

Which subject is likely?

And yes, when schools set predictions, one factor will be GCSE grades as not surprisingly they are a predictor of future performance - not the only one, but certainly a factor and when looking at the macro level, not surprisingly there is a correlation between the GCSEs of a cohort and their A level outcomes.

Regardless though, it’s great to be motivated and aim high - that is always good. However DC needs to know previous grades are always on the CV now - it can be a good motivator to realise messing about and not taking things seriously does have consequences.

It’s early days and a positive start is brilliant news.

This is what we have been told too. Ds1 has just started sixth form, each GCSE grade is given a point, all those points are added together and then divided by the total number of GCSEs taken to get their predicted grades. I am not sure how this works for each A level or whether it is a this child is a A student, this one is a B thing as we haven't had it all added up yet*

How do they map the GCSE numerical score to the letters at A level? For example, if a dc had an average of say, 6.5, how would that map to A levels?