GCSEs for Russell Group

[BaffledByUnis]

NC as don't want to out myself.
DC has just started the lower sixth and school has already started talking about universities and other options. DC seems to have their heart set on a Russell Group uni and a quite traditional academic subject. All fine except DC's GCSEs were disappointing due to a heroically sustained lack of effort. One 8 (A*), one 7 (A) and a bunch of 5s (low B/high C).
Sixth form seems to have given us a whole different DC. DC is enthusiastic, engaged, loving school, but are they heading for disappointment and no offers if they only apply to RG unis with those GCSEs?
They've got plenty of time and could go and see a number of places before a final decision has to be made.
But, if RG IS possible with those GCSEs, with a great Personal Statement and predicted grades then I don't want to dissuade DC. I am, of course, assuming that the new improved DC will lead to a great Personal Statement and predicted grades. I fully realise that if not they will have to grow up and rethink.
It's simply that I would hate DC to take something they deem to be somehow less and lose their dream if the dream is achievable.
Are there any uni admissions people on here who could give me a advice?

I went to a Russell Group university with 1A*, 7As and 2Bs at GCSE and a B, C, D at A Level. I have a PhD from a Russell Group university and work at one now. I honestly wouldn't worry. Just tell him to keep up the new good attitude and it will serve him well.

I wouldn’t worry. One of mine is at a Russell Group and got three As, four Bs and two Cs at GCSE.

I've worked at 2 RG unis for the past 6 years and a fair amount of admissions (Humanities and Sciences). GCSEs are rarely looked at in great detail, the predicted A Level grades are the main factors in offers. I'd double check the entry requirements for the specific courses as some courses will ask for old style C+ in Eng and Maths (there's no standard for unis). Strong references from school/college will all help too.

Adjustment is for those who have met offers but did better than predicted in A levels.

Not quite - nothing to do per se with performance in relation to predicted grades, but based on exceeding conditions of offer for firm choice university. So, preficted A, A, A, offer AAA, achieved A*AA, eligible for Adjustment. Predicted AAB, achieved AAA, firm offer AAA, not eligible.

www.ucas.com/ucas/undergraduate/apply-and-track/results/ucas-adjustment-if-youve-done-better-expected

Marching might a uni offer a higher offer than a DC's predicted grades? I assumed they'd just reject.
Is it possible to find out how many offers a uni/course makes in relation to applicants, rather than applicants to places?
My view is that once DC has some offers it is very much up to them to pull their finger out. My worry was that if they aimed high they would end up without any offers. Is this not so?

Marching might a uni offer a higher offer than a DC's predicted grades? I assumed they'd just reject.

No! Even if predicted is lower than standard offer, they're far more likely to offer than reject.

My worry was that if they aimed high they would end up without any offers. Is this not so?

It's not the case no. Have you looked at the UCAS offer calculator?

Oh my gosh, titchy, I have now!!! Thank you.

Did got 5's and a 6 and an 8 for a computer course extra thingy. Huge effort just found them all hard.He's just started at an RG uni after loving 6th form.

I have read these posts with interest. My son got 10 gcses mostly 6s and 2x7 and 1 x8. He however got a grade 4 (one mark off a 5 and grade unchanged after review by exam board). His English teacher says the grade 4 is an anomaly and unexpected as he got a 7 in his last mock exam for English.
Do you think a grade 4 in English will hold him back from applying and being offered a place at a Russell group university?
Has made a good start in a levels of maths, physics and economics and may want to do a degree in engineering /economics. He has been given ALPS target of BBB based on gcse results average.
Looking forward to hear views.

Do you think a grade 4 in English will hold him back from applying and being offered a place at a Russell group university?

Probably not with decent (and realistic) A level predictions, unless the course specifically wants grade 5/6. I think someone posted elsewhere that their DC has a BBB offer from QMUL, but I can't remember for what degree subject.

There are only 24 RG universities, though (22 if you discount Oxford and Cambridge, which are probably unlikely, unfortunately), so he could just trawl through their requirements for the actual course(s) in which he is interested?

The question is whether kids want to go to a RG and will take any uni and any course, just to get to one, or if they have a specific course and/or location in mind.

Some courses at some RG uni are extremely competitive. Top notch GCSEs and Hugh predictions for A Level will be needed for those. It is daft to pretend that people with a string of 5s and 6s have equal chances to those with all 9s for the highly competitive courses at the very top places such a s Oxbridge, or LSE or Durham.

However, there will be other courses which are less competitive which will give offers and places to people with much lower grades within the RG.

Question is, do you go for a course and a location you might not be so keen on, simply to say you went to RG uni, if your grades would allow you to do a course you'd love, but at a non RG?

Actually, lots of people would advise this - so do archaeology instead of History at a RG - saying this will open more doors than a History degree from a lower ranked uni.

It has to be a personal choice though. And I think everyone knows that in reality, when courses are over-subscribed, Unis have to decide who to offer to and who not to. Predicted grades at A Level are important, but bearing in mind there is so much over-predicting, GCSEs are important too. Not surprisingly, GCSEs are the best predictor of A Level preformance that Unis have to rely on, so they aren't totally disregarded and all GCSE profiles are not equal. Someone with a lower GCSE profile can access a RG uni but they will have to be more careful and choice of course and which ones to have a realistic chance.

There is also a "ranking" within the RG universities. Some are more competitivate and desirable than others. They are not all equal by any means and some rank way lower than, say, Bath or Lancaster. Look very closely at required grades and exactly what the university takes into consideration when making offers. It varies.

So be very careful about choosing what university is attainable as well as aspirational. Some are easier to get into than others. So course and which university matter. MFL, for exampe, will be delighted to see you. Medicine will be choosy.

Someone with a lower GCSE profile can access a RG uni but they will have to be more careful and choice of course and which ones to have a realistic chance.

Hence my mentioning the post on another thread re the BBB offer from QMUL. Of course, this may be QM's version of an 'unconditional'and only made to those with 10 x grade 9 at GCSE and a triple A star prediction for A level. But according to reports on TSR during the admissions round just completed, Durham was contacting some applicants for one or two subjects (Geography springs to mind) to drop their offer to BBB.

Loughborough and Bath both have an excellent reputation for Engineering, but are not members the hallowed lobby group. So yes, is it the best course that I can access, or RG for RG's sake^?

Is that English Language, rather than literature? I will assume language. Some of the universities ask for a 5 in English. Some a 4.

Or sue did you are alluding to my DD at Queen Mary. Her offer is BBB. Predicted AAA. Her GCSEs were a 5 (maths), a 6, 5 7s and 2 8s.

That should read ‘if you are’