Still shocked by UCAS clearing

[ThePonderer]

Imagine you book the holiday of a lifetime, using all your savings. You're going on a cruise in the Caribbean.

You are delayed on the way to the airport and at the check-in desk they tell you, "Sorry, you're too late for your flight. But we can offer you these alternatives instead:

1. Cruising in Norway
2. A beach holiday in Antigua
3. Walking in Oporto
4. Snorkelling with sloths in Yucatan

Choose which holiday you want, run across the airport to the right check-in desk, and you might just be in time."

It could all work out well, if you know your geography, or if you'd been having doubts about your original booking anyway. It might even be the beginning of an epic sloth romance. But it's still massively stressful and an absurd way to make such a big life decision.

Surely there must be a better way?

Has there been any research, to see if students who end up in clearing also end up more or equally satisfied with their eventual course, compared to other kids who didn't go thru clearing but got similar grades, perhaps?

You could save your money then book, once you can afford the airport hotel so you can get there a day early so you don't miss your cruise.

You could claim off your travel insurance and not lose out at all, booking something more realistic with the money.

You slog your guts out doing overtime and make sure you had enough money to stay in an airport hotel the night before.

You could use some of your savings for an airport hotel and go somewhere less exotic if you can no longer afford the Caribbean.

To continue your travel analogy...

You don’t have to accept a place though, you could reapply the following year.

• But it's still massively stressful and an absurd way to make such a big life decision. Surely there must be a better way?*

Yep! Apply once results are known. No one forces you to apply through clearing.

This isn't really clearing as such though? In clearing, unis advertise the courses they have available and students ring up about the specific course they are interested in.

If I've understood your analogy correctly, this is unis offering alternative courses before results day- which the student is free to accept or decline. Sometimes unis do offer wildly inappropriate things, but I think this is a symptom of funding issues in higher education more than anything.

I agree it's stressful, but to change the system to a post results application one would require a lot of work and for unis to probably change their starting dates- which is pretty unlikely to happen.

The whole thing is pretty mad, but equally no-one is forced to use clearing. For some people, going through clearing is the better option compared to taking a gap year.

Or get their on time.

There. 🙄

Ah well - I was thinking of the situation where your results are lower than expected and you go through clearing on results day.

Of course you could and should plan for problems but since so few students get their expected grades there must be a lot of people making decisions under pressure or when they're feeling emotional.

Do you think the current system works in general?

And of course you can reapply the next year but it's difficult to reset your expectations and plans in just a couple of hours.

I guess that's why I used the holiday analogy - you chose something carefully and were looking forward to it and at the last minute something has gone wrong. Do you give up or gamble?

I don't think that's a good analogy at all.

But I'm not sure what you think would be better. If all unis gave unconditionals? Well they've been saying this year that unconditionals often mean students don't work as hard. Plus it would encourage even more over predictions because it wouldn't matter if you predicted that grade E student an A* on the basis they'll never have to prove it.
For the students that didn't get their grades and are in clearing for that reason, it's always going to be stressful. They're dealing with disappointment over their grades, having to readjust their sights on what they were expecting and work out what is the best thing to do.
I suspect for those who chose to go into clearing, for example because they exceeded their expectations or changed their mind about the course they probably find it a better experience.

I'm not convinced about applying afterwards. It sounds fairer in some ways, but I'm not sure it is.
Those who found themselves in clearing will still find it upsetting, and still be dealing with disappointment over their grades, having to readjust their sights on what they were expecting and work out what is the best thing to do.

But I think it will add to the exam stress. Because they will feel that even if the entry requirements are BBB, then they will stand a better chance with AAA or even A A A*.
I suspect it will disadvantage state school pupils. I know the argument is it will advantage them as state schools tend to underestimate. However I think that there will be less flexibility for students from lower ranked schools. Because if you've got someone who's got AAA to turn them down in favour of ABB, will be counterintuitive.
Unless the convention starts being applying in 3rd year 6th, and I can't see us returning to that, whatever timing they give the students it's going to be quick.
So then you've got students getting their results, having to decide where to apply (especially if results are better/worse), applying, interviewing and getting ready to go in, let's say 3 months?
Add into that remarks. Are you going to not start the process until remarks have come in? If you have a remark coming then do you wait and see if you can apply for better, or do you apply straight away and then find you could have done better.

I'm already on the beach in Antigua making the most of things 🍹. If life gives you lemons etc...

It's a terrible analogy, if you can't afford the holiday you save and go the next year.

Has there been any research, to see if students who end up in clearing also end up more or equally satisfied with their eventual course, compared to other kids who didn't go thru clearing but got similar grades, perhaps?

Good question, YeOldeTrout. Even grades might not be relevant - it might just be interesting to know whether going through clearing makes you more or less appreciative of where you end up than other students at the same institution who met their offers.

I'm guessing that most people are happy where they end up...?

Of course you could and should plan for problems but since so few students get their expected grades there must be a lot of people making decisions under pressure or when they're feeling emotional.

Where’s your evidence for this? Often even if students miss a grade or two, they still get into their first/insurance choices.

Where I come from they used to offer places in tranches. So they would offer all their places on x date and you had y number of days to accept, defer or, decline. Then they offered whatever was left over and you had y number of days to accepts etc. until there were no places left.

@Witchend see above. Universities could just form wait lists in order to fill their vacant spots. It’s fairer and less stressful.

so few students get their expected grades

Sorry? What evidence do you have of that.
Quick glance at a couple of places show around 25% went through clearing, but they reckon 1/3 at least were people who chose to go through clearing, and probably includes adjustment too.

It's a terrible analogy

Fair enough. I was just trying to give a sense of the kind of panic that sets in with unexpected results. If you can't afford something you know the exact figures in advance and you can plan for that. But even the best, hardest-working students (and their teachers) can easily guess wrong about exam results. You don't know for sure until the last minute.

But I take your point, Witchend. Maybe the alternatives wouldn't be any better for students.

The whole system of applying before results are known seems a bit of a stab in the dark.

I did much better in my a-levels than I could have ever dared dream about. My grades were compatible with institutions and courses I hadn't even considered I was good enough for.

However I wasn't allowed the option of pulling out the mediocre course I had applied for on the basis of my crappy predicted grades. I had to either do the course or reapply for the following year.

I would have liked to been able to enter clearing

MarchionessOfCholmondeley that’s changed now.

*so few students get their expected grades

Sorry? What evidence do you have of that.*

Well, for example the Guardian report at www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/18/predicted-grades-lottery-work-against-poorest-students-get-rid-of-them states that only 16% of students get their predicted grades.

I get that this doesn't automatically mean they miss their offers, as you'd expect their offers to allow for some leeway - and of course they could be predicted lower than they get.

But anecdotally there are at least 5 applicants I know this year who did miss both their offers, for whatever reason, so it's not unheard of either.

Your analogy would work better if you said you were wanting a holiday but it was only to be paid for on overtime, and you thought there'd be enough overtime to pay for the Caribbean so that's what you booked, although that wasn't guaranteed. In the event there wasn't enough hours, so you had a choice of a Med cruise or booking next year somewhere once you knew how many hours over time you'd get.

Ireland uses a post results system. You apply for your unis and courses and rank them in choice order. No personal statement or any of that shit.

If the uni has 30 places on a course it just takes the thirty applicants with the best results. If you don’t get your first choice then your second looks at your results and so on.

I’m a lecturer, and I think your analogy is wrong. A better one might be that you think you will have saved enough money for an African safari, but it turns out your money only gets you a fortnight in Greece, or a long weekend in Centre Parcs. Conditional places are based on predicted grades and if those predictions don’t materialise, you have the choice of what is available for your grades/money, or you can duck out and improve your grades then reapply (in which case next year’s offer is probably going to still be based on a prediction).

FWIW, I didn’t get my predicted grades. I opted to work for a year, then did a further year of Highers (Scotland) at an FE college before reapplying and going to uni.

Does Ireland do any contextualisation of the results tinkly? (I realise you may not answer straight away! not sure why i'm up so early)

I do see the problems with post results applications, in terms of timetable. Does any other system use england/wales's system of conditional offers/insurance/clearing though? other countries seem to use either post results application (Ireland, ?Germany), or unconditional offers (USA based on SATS results, refs, ps etc; some Scottish offers based on Highers)?

I think the govt is carrying out a review of precisely this question, to report in april - whether to move to post results application - will be interesting to see the outcome!