Applying for Uni 2019 entry Part 2, UCAS & offers

[Decorhate]

Here we go!

But Mazza, school should be on DC's side and I feel for all those with mean predictions which can have a significant impact. Our school predicts latest results or 1 grade up if they think student has potential to do better. For medicine that can make a real difference as some places like Edinburgh and Exeter are unlikely to interview unless you are predicted 3 A*s, but the offer will be AAA. Unfair!

Yes I hate predicted grades actually, this was in the paper today

"A-level results are stable year-on-year, but grades predicted by schools keep rising, meaning growing numbers of pupils are missing targets.

Sir Peter Lampl, founder of the Sutton Trust, which tackles social mobility, said: “Unconditional offers have increased exponentially over the past five years. This is a serious problem for access.

It means universities are likely to put more weight on students’ predicted grades, which disadvantaged students are more likely to have underpredicted.”

^it is a terrible system & if you're on the receiving end of of a low prediction it's infuriatingly unfair. People with higher predictions who end up with the same or lower grades than you can get in - even after missing their offer - while you don't even get an offer.

(the article was about unconditional offers generally)

but loads of them do far better when specialising at A level than their GCSE results would suggest. My DS is an example. He is clearly thriving doing subjects he loves whereas he found many of the GCSEs (particularly triple science) dull and underpeformed at that level. I also think that young people mature at different points (included in their academic abilities), so it is entirely possible for young people who don't necessarily excel at GCSEs to find their academic mojo. later on, and go from strength to strength (I was the same!).

Final draft of PS now uploaded to UCAS application. Just remains for DS to check it all this evening, pay and send (a day of our deadline...).

At the end of Year 12 he had CCC and is working his socks off to get BBB for his mocks. If the school put CCC as his predicted grades, I don't think he will get any offers as his courses all ask for BBB or BBA, is that true? Also if he didn't get any offers based on his CCC predicted grades, could he apply to the same uni's in clearing with the same or better grades? Hope that makes sense. Thanks

I agree about the predicted grades fiasco. Although Dd’s school told pupils they don’t predict A , she found out those saying they needed A for an offer (e.g.Oxbridge) got them. One of the girls in her class has got two unconditionals from Russell group universities (one at the uni Dd wants to go to) without interview, presumably based on her A predicted grades. Dd has the same grades or better in class but not predicted A as she didn’t need it for the course she wants. Dd hasn’t got an offer yet from that one but had a lower offer than this girl for another university they both applied to. It’s all a game!

Surely schools should predict PGs fairly though? I think DS's school does. It is one that sends nigh on 100% to university (with many doing medicine, 10 to 20 annually getting into Oxbridge and the vast majority of the others gaining RG places). The Head of Sixth Form said that the admissions tutors tend to have a fairly accurate idea of whether schools consistently grade predict well (or not) - presumably this may impact on offers given.

I think different courses and universities have different approaches to grades. I suspect STEM subjects will have a lot of emphasis on grades, but other courses will be interested very much in the PS. Interview type courses will obviously take a range of things into account. I suspect anyway.

I remember chatting in here and St Andrews (for Maths), made it beyond clear that it's grades, grades and then grades. But another poster for IR (I think....) took the PS very much into account.

I also wonder if predicted grades at A Level that are improved on GCSE performance are a factor? This applies to DD, who got straight A's and one 8, no A (stars), but is predicted two A (stars) at A Level and one A.

yeah dd got 7A, A, B, D and she's predicted AAB (mock results end of y12) but is getting higher than that already this term (apart from one random D in physics!).

She made a fuss & they said they'd increase it to AAB ... but then they said they weren't predicting As ... & then it turns out they did for medics/Oxbridge (even with lower mocks!). Their explanation was that her courses ask for AAB she didn't need higher. I'm pretty angry about it now & if she doesn't get an interview for the last course I will be furious with them.

with many doing medicine, 10 to 20 annually getting into Oxbridge and the vast majority of the others gaining RG places

that's what you'd expect from dd's school based on their GCSE results in my opinion they are under ambitious & the actual destinations are safer than they need be. It's very strange.

Attitudes to predicted grades definitely vary widely from school to school - at DDs school they (correctly I believe) will predict what was achieved at AS unless the student has been consistently working at the higher level or has proved between the AS exam/mock and application that they can achieve the higher grade. I remember one of DD’s friends slaving away to submit essays to prove she could get a B it’s a very very normal (slightly under performing due to its demographic) comp - most do one BTEC plus one or two A levels, or just a BTEC. I think about 20-30 of them did 3 A levels in DD’s year. DD got her 3A*s and the other two high achievers got AAB. Most get into their first choice of uni or apprenticeship.

At another school in the area with a more middle class population they’ll predict whatever you want. Ask for AAA and they’ll predict AAA. It’s ridiculous - so many kids end up applying for over aspirational courses and then are disappointed/shocked on results day when they don’t make the grade.

At another school in the area with a more middle class population they’ll predict whatever you want. Ask for AAA and they’ll predict AAA. Defo not true at DS's school. I have however heard stories of medical schools fallen short of students come Results Day because so many schools do over-predict and a sizeable % of those with offers don't reach the required standard.

Son in private education, the school play by the rules, no inflating PG but are other schools bending the rules which means honest schools pupils are missing out??

I think part of the other school’s problem is pushy parents who come in and complain if their DC doesn’t get the predicted grades they want... they can’t be bothered with the hassle so just put down whatever the student asks for.

Someone told me that some schools develop reputations for over inflated predicted grades - I don’t know how true that is or if unis actually look. The school near us usually gets one or two into Oxbridge but a lot do end up in clearing or at insurances, and a lot seem to apply for Oxbridge but get rejected pre interview.

A friend told me this morning that at her DS's very high performing independent school a third of the students failed to get the grades for their firm choice!

It means universities are likely to put more weight on students’ predicted grades, which disadvantaged students are more likely to have underpredicted.”
Oh this this this !

It is even evidenced on this thread that most of the -for want of a better word- mean predictions are coming from comprehensive schools in a target and accuracy driven culture and often with low progression rates.

UCAS does need to take some responsibility for this, as do the unis -and send out clearer messages to all schools.

madmum5811 No, I don't think so. DS's Head of Sixth implied that the universities are well aware of the schools that give reliable predictions vs those that don't! So they may regard some candidates' PGs more sceptically than others...

University applications should be made after results are out.

This would make irrelevant both predicted grades and unconditional offers.

TheFrendo Thu 29-Nov-18 14:26:29
University applications should be made after results are out.

This would make irrelevant both predicted grades and unconditional offers.

Not sure that is doable, with accommodation and other things to be sorted out in a month or so, think the uni staff would struggle with this.

At least the AS results (now scrapped obviously) were some form of realistic indicator that universities could go by.

A third of offers last year were unconditional last year, apparently.....😲

Start date 1st Dec or 1st Jan & the application/interview/acceptance cycle after results.

TheFrendo - that would make a lot of sense for admissions, but I can't see it happening. It would be too much of a change in a conservative sector.

newmodel your idea that admissions officers know shcool's prediction patterns only really works if they know the school : which again tends to be well known public schools, prestigious grammar schools, and a handful of comps...

pancake : most schools don't do AS?

Piggy yes I guess that's true - well amongst those groups they'd know who are chancers and who aren't...

At DS's school only the ones doing STEM subjects did AS..