Medicine 2018 part 2

[LoniceraJaponica]

New thread here

My daughter is in 1st year at BSMS and she says quite a few missed a grade eg AAB .Did make me wonder a little about the inequities of predicted grades being part of the selection process .

Was first year for a lot of the A levels so I think they took that into account. Not sure it will be the same this year especially as so many applicants. Think they should take all our lovely kiddies 😁

Predicted grades are iniquitous, that's for sure. Not just for medicine, but for every other subject, too.

As it currently stands in this country, a child's future can be sealed by the subjective value judgement of a class teacher, prior to the pupil sitting a single A-level. There's solid evidence that missed grades are being accepted across the board from those who already have offers at results time. It's a scandal that this is going unchallenged. Only one in six predictions is accurate FFS!

Herodshelper My dd Is at Leeds. It was her insurance. The offer from them was AAA but she got A A B Although Leeds had said on their website that they wouldn't accept the combination that she achieved instead of their standard offer, they did. Even though the B was in Chemistry which was their one compulsory subject. I think they guarantee accommodation for all first years too. Even if it's their insurance.

Obviously it will vary each year & I would guess they will be more lenient with someone they have made an offer to than someone on the waiting list.

On the subject of predictions, it is fairly common to predict what is possible for each subject, rather than what is bankable as a set. That generally means dropping at least one grade across three subjects, sometimes more, which is why no-one gets the predictions. The universities know this, but this is mitigated by their current tendency to give anyone who applies an offer (within reason). It is up to you to meet it. Except for medicine and courses at the top few like Oxbridge and Imperial who set their own tests.
I think using predicted grades above AAA for medicine as a real cutoff is a bit of a shocker and obviously open to school manipulation. The one that sticks out in this regard is Exeter with it’s silly 3A* thing. It should get rid of that.

"Was first year for a lot of the A levels so I think they took that into account."

Problem is that schools are interpreting A level changes in different ways. Some are being very conservative indeed, while others are wildly over predicting with little regard to the pupil's performance.

If a pupil is under predicted, then subsequently does better than expected, pupil is likely to be shafted because all the places will have gone - some, undoubtedly, to students with poorer results.

Shocked at the statistics about only one in six being correct - both my DS's got their predicted grades, for one that was enough for his chosen degree, for the other he changed his plans anyway and reapplied a year later with the required grades for Durham and they still took 4 months to make him an unconditional offer. I agree Exeter are barking mad with their AAA requirement for medicine; but they were like that with English a few years ago, saying initially AAA then making AAA offers to applicants - several of whom had AAA offers from Oxford - which made a mockery of the whole thing.

HYMS at open day said they would absolutely not consider below AAA, Liverpool said apply even if you are predicted AAB! Maybe some medical schools would also take a high UKCAT score and high interview score into consideration before deciding whether to accept someone who missed a grade?

Decorate, that hits the nail! Getting AAB or similar worries me, with the B in chemistry because it has a much higher boundary effectively. OCR could easily be 75% for an A in Chemistry and 55% in Biology (what is that about?). Maths is prob already a done deal for an A at least with the AS results counting.
Looks likely to firm Leeds, and I think it will have to be Manchester as insurance. Can’t see the others being so lenient.

Ironically daughter chose her med school because she knew they really wanted her ( rang next working day with an offer ) and I was glad because I thought they would be more likely therefore to accept a missed grade .As it turned out she exceeded the standard offer . I know of several very able students whose school refused to predict the required grades so received no offers .As they aced their exams and had all the other requirements they succeeded the following year but irritating when other schools predict differently .

Julian is back. Scarily saying decisions being sent ASAP. V clear about process as always. But feel a little icky as will know next week.

Yes good old Julian, Sheffield has such a transparent process, I wish all the medical schools were like this! Fingers crossed for us all for Sheffield next week, I am nervous too, DD is totally chilled about the whole thing.

My DD has gone to work. We had a row about her driving but she went anyway. Want her home - now !!! Independent and stubborn. She's nervous about it all but wants to know - convinced herself it's a rejection. At least she'll still have Southampton to look forward too 😂! And Liverpool. And Nottingham. Can you tell
I'm losing it s bit 🤪

Have fallen a bit in love with Julian at Sheffield! Love the transparency of it all. He must have the patience of a saint. Long message about how they accepted AAB last year for firmly accepted offers - then someone asks if that was insurance offers 🙈

If had know about the blessed Julian earlier we would have persisted more as it seemed a good option to us.

To be fair, he did say in the note that they applied the AAB to insurances too. And (!!!) they interviewed in August! Who knew, eh? They were clearly short. Maybe this year they will go long?
One thing I gleaned from UCAS is that at about 6-700 people got into medicine on results day last year. The universities keep that quiet. It has been going up a lot over the past 5 years.

All hail Julian. Seems they are ready but due to snow it will be Monday. Will try to forget all about it.

Snow day today & again tomorrow. Getting deep now. We are in a "red" zone.

Stay safe everyone.

. "I know of several very able students whose school refused to predict the required grades so received no offers .As they aced their exams and had all the other requirements they succeeded the following year but irritating when other schools predict differently ."

Great that these students persevered!
That shows real resilience.

Though I'm sure there are other pupils
who might have done really well if not for the vote of "no confidence" in the shape of lacklustre predictions.
People who are positively reinforced tend to do better in tasks - it's something that's emerged in various studies of behaviour.
I recall reading a feature on premiership football clubs which employ positive psychologists to boost players' self belief before a game, for example. The footballers did much better on the pitch when psyched up b4 the match and told "you are a rock" or whatever. I'm sure it works in the reverse, too.

Those pupils told they will never make the grade may switch off completely.
And remember we are dealing with young minds here. Youngsters who may be continually assessing their self worth, having just gone through the vulnerabilities of adolescence and its hormonal upheavals.

DD did not make her predicted grades. Three interviews in March played a large part in this. By the time she got an offer it was near impossible for her to pick herself up to focus on A levels. Luckily predictions were A* and grades were mainly A, but it would be a rare student who can really focus on A levels in the midst of all the stress and uncertainty.

Herodshelper Dd missed the A in Chemistry by less than 1%. Her firm would not budge. She also had an A in her EPQ.

With hindsight, because her firm offer was A AA she really focussed on getting an A in her stronger subjects when really she should have been putting more effort into Chemistry which was her weakest.

She was very lucky that she got into Leeds as technically she missed their offer too. She is very happy there btw, especially with the early clinical placements which she would not have had if she had got into her firm.

That should have said "less than 0.5%". So if they had applied rounding up she would have got the A!

Heroldshelper-please can you link where you got this data?
I am interested and am wondering why does so many medical seats go into clearing( ? Have I understood this correctly)

www.ucas.com/file/138191/download?token=p0K895la

I am reading it at face value. My assumption is that most of what it says is clearing is in fact some sort of waiting list. The interesting thing is the trend. Something has changed.
I am not sure exactly what the RPA thing is used for, except that it seems to be for offers outside of the normal UCAS process.

Decorate. Exactly. I do not have a warm feeling about an AAA offer in all science and maths subjects. Serious risk of it all going pear shaped by focussing on the A, when the real bear trap is the chemistry. You have to get nearly 90% to get an A in chemistry, so you would go for the other two. Only biology has a low A boundary, but still not many people get it. Maths is about 85% on the A2 papers (but DC only needs about 60% to get an A). Getting AAB and them not going to medical school would reduce me to a puddle after all this effort. At least the terror was short-lived in your case?
And anyway, Leeds seems a happy place and is very convenient for many reasons. Ditch the A*AA offer?

Is this not the universities tactically hold back some places for clearing to grab the students that didn't get interviews or offers, but then get the grades? One dc I know didn't get the predicted grades to apply but then aced her exams. On results day she went through clearing and was immediately offered an interview, and subsequently a place for medicine.

Grade boundaries are always set after the exams have been taken. So one years grade boundaries mean nothing for the next year. It's done on a bell curve with a similar amount achieving each grade each year - it ensures consistency as papers vary in difficulty. Especially the last few years !!! GCSE one's this are going to laughable I predict. Snow day here which means I can catch up with marking - and panic as my Year 11s are missing lessons.