How risky are gap years?

[Whitlandcarm]

Dd really wants to take a last minute gap year. She did very well but not amazingly at a level.

Her current course asked AAA which she would be happy to go to. But the entry requirements for that course are A*AA/AAA.
She would be applying again for History///archaeology at one.

For gcse she got A*/A
A levels AAAA

From a low performing state comp.

She would apply to

Oxford
LSE
UCL
Bristol
???

Do we advise her to stick or twist?

It's always difficult to know how much to read into high tariff points on league tables. The highest average tariff scores reflect an average of more than A A A* - i.e a fourth A level, but most institutions offer on only 3 A levels and wouldn't expect 4 if the candidate goes to a school that won't let them do 4. So a high tariff point score might reflect, for example, an institution that takes a decent number of students offering the IB (which produces a very high tariff) - which might well mean a high number of international students. Or an institution that takes lots of students from the kinds of schools that let students or encourage students to do 4 A levels (a decreasing number, particularly in the state sector). What you can't assume is that in order to get a place you need to have that kind of tariff score - it's an average, and they will have a range.
11 applications per place isn't particularly unusual and isn't really an indication of competitiveness - most oxbridge courses will have fewer applications per place. What indicates competitiveness is the number of offers made as a percentage of applications - the Which University guide has that information (although I'm not entirely convinced by some of their numbers, and you have to bear in mind some institutions will receive a disproportionate number of very weak applications). Once an offer is made, then everything is up to applicants - most courses will make significantly more offers than they have places, because candidates choose their preferences and then often don't get the grades. So the competition lies in getting the offer, not getting the place at the end.

PiratePanda AAA is the standard offer for History at Oxford. Oxford's standard offers in the arts and humanities have always been low, relative to the ability of those they select. That's a deliberate policy on Oxford's part. Context isn't relevant because of that.

Yes, sorry, I was thinking Cambridge (which is A*AA). Nonetheless, AAA is the minimum that you have to have at Oxford; plenty will have better grades, and plenty with AAA won't get in.

Also, just to second SomeOtherFuckers, the post is pretty incoherent. I only got the gist from a previous thread: OP's DD has had contextual offers this year from good unis but wants to go to Oxford, so should she bin this year's offers and reapply or stick with what she's got.

Yes, although low achieving state school is in the mix PiratePanda so I wouldn't necessarily treat that in the same way as AAA from a top indie or top grammar.

Ds did gap year. didn't do anything particularly amazing but some relevant stuff.

Accepted on a top course/uni and with a re-take.

So good for many of them to take foot off accelerator for a year. Was great for my DS but he did have a few friends still around also going following year.

voilets but there's always the issue of whether the very good uni from which you're holding an offer will re-offer even if they'd defer, if you want to try for Oxbridge. That's the issue for plenty of students holding offers at top unis.