How unpredictable are A level results?

[Eeeeeek330]

Do you think that if a DC is regularly scoring the grades they are predicted in mocks and class tests and revises the whole syllabus well, that they should achieve predicted grades? I suppose I am wondering if there is an element of luck. I was woefully underprepared for mine, so I was dependent on the stuff I had manage to cram coming up in the exam. Nor were the syllabus, past papers and mark schemes published online for reference. So my results weren't really bad luck.
However, given the statistics recently quoted on another thread, of students dropping at least 2 grades on their university offers, if there were other factors at play to do with the exam itself. Reading the threads on the results pages last year, I got the impression that marking was subjective, lots of mistake made by examiners and that especially in the case of GCSEs , questions were asked in a format that wasn't predictable.
I am wondering could the exams really contain something unpredictable, especially in the new Linear A level exams?

SpoofersAreLosers thats a really interesting report. I had been thinking that it was quite unusual to not obtain predicted grades. Little did I know that there was a more than 70% chance of dropping 2 predicted grades.

I think that A-level results are fairly predictable by about Jan/Feb mocks in Year 13. A student working at a D now probably won't get an A in the exam unless they put in a lot of work which they weren't before and vice versa. Predicted grades for UCAS are given out mid September - in time for Oxbridge applicants - so they're not as accurate.

At least where I teach, we're encouraged to be "honest but aspirational" when giving them out. So if a student got a good A at AS, I would probably predict A although I would make it clear to the student that she shouldn't rely on getting an A for university.

This is why it's important that students have a realistic insurance choice when it comes to selecting their final two options in the spring.

DD2 informs me that many of her fellow sixth form students lobbied tutors to have their predicted grades improved. A prediction of three As is apparently enough to get you an unconditional offer at Birmingham. DD was given one but has decided that it's not for her.

My son missed both firm and insurance offers in 2015. The problem was a Philosophy A level-- not the RS version, but the pure philosophy one, where he dropped a grade and the remark didn't quite get him up to the predicted grade. It worked out fine in the end,and he is happy elsewhere, but I am not taking anything for granted this year with my younger child.

Eight out of the nine predictions my three were given were spot on. The ninth was out by one grade, which turned out to be three marks out of 300. So very accurate, in my experience.

I think it's worth bearing in mind that Admissions staff are aware of these numbers and of over--predicting generally. It's one of the issues of the reformed A levels - on the old system, one can 'test' a prediction against an AS grade and be skeptical of it, whereas now it's less easy. We know about pupils lobbying their teachers as well! From what I know of the Birmingham unconditional scheme, it's not just about predicted grades - they look at other aspects of the application including in particular GCSEs. Personally, I suspect there'll be more overprediction with the new A levels, at least initially, as teachers tend to give the benefit of the doubt.
University responses to the issue will vary - some will continue to 'test' predictions, using GCSEs instead, plus standalone AS when available; others will just offer very widely and let applicants filter themselves out by not getting the grades (that's already basically the approach at a lot of big institutions anyway). Applicants need to combine aspiration with realism - on the one hand, recognizing that they may very well get offers from institutions whose standard offer is higher than their prediction, but on the other hand being realistic about how likely they are to achieve that offer, and having a sensible back up.