How unpredictable are A level results?

[Eeeeeek330]

Do you think that if a DC is regularly scoring the grades they are predicted in mocks and class tests and revises the whole syllabus well, that they should achieve predicted grades? I suppose I am wondering if there is an element of luck. I was woefully underprepared for mine, so I was dependent on the stuff I had manage to cram coming up in the exam. Nor were the syllabus, past papers and mark schemes published online for reference. So my results weren't really bad luck.
However, given the statistics recently quoted on another thread, of students dropping at least 2 grades on their university offers, if there were other factors at play to do with the exam itself. Reading the threads on the results pages last year, I got the impression that marking was subjective, lots of mistake made by examiners and that especially in the case of GCSEs , questions were asked in a format that wasn't predictable.
I am wondering could the exams really contain something unpredictable, especially in the new Linear A level exams?

[Gannet123]

I think it's worth bearing in mind that Admissions staff are aware of these numbers and of over--predicting generally. It's one of the issues of the reformed A levels - on the old system, one can 'test' a prediction against an AS grade and be skeptical of it, whereas now it's less easy. We know about pupils lobbying their teachers as well! From what I know of the Birmingham unconditional scheme, it's not just about predicted grades - they look at other aspects of the application including in particular GCSEs. Personally, I suspect there'll be more overprediction with the new A levels, at least initially, as teachers tend to give the benefit of the doubt.
University responses to the issue will vary - some will continue to 'test' predictions, using GCSEs instead, plus standalone AS when available; others will just offer very widely and let applicants filter themselves out by not getting the grades (that's already basically the approach at a lot of big institutions anyway). Applicants need to combine aspiration with realism - on the one hand, recognizing that they may very well get offers from institutions whose standard offer is higher than their prediction, but on the other hand being realistic about how likely they are to achieve that offer, and having a sensible back up.

[Moominmammacat]

Eight out of the nine predictions my three were given were spot on. The ninth was out by one grade, which turned out to be three marks out of 300. So very accurate, in my experience.

[Abraiid2]

My son missed both firm and insurance offers in 2015. The problem was a Philosophy A level-- not the RS version, but the pure philosophy one, where he dropped a grade and the remark didn't quite get him up to the predicted grade. It worked out fine in the end,and he is happy elsewhere, but I am not taking anything for granted this year with my younger child.

[TinklyLittleLaugh]

DD2 informs me that many of her fellow sixth form students lobbied tutors to have their predicted grades improved. A prediction of three As is apparently enough to get you an unconditional offer at Birmingham. DD was given one but has decided that it's not for her.

[WyfOfBathe]

I think that A-level results are fairly predictable by about Jan/Feb mocks in Year 13. A student working at a D now probably won't get an A in the exam unless they put in a lot of work which they weren't before and vice versa. Predicted grades for UCAS are given out mid September - in time for Oxbridge applicants - so they're not as accurate.

At least where I teach, we're encouraged to be "honest but aspirational" when giving them out. So if a student got a good A at AS, I would probably predict A although I would make it clear to the student that she shouldn't rely on getting an A for university.

This is why it's important that students have a realistic insurance choice when it comes to selecting their final two options in the spring.

[tropicalfish]

SpoofersAreLosers thats a really interesting report. I had been thinking that it was quite unusual to not obtain predicted grades. Little did I know that there was a more than 70% chance of dropping 2 predicted grades.

[SpoofersAreLosers]

Sorry for typos

[SpoofersAreLosers]

I'm often quoting facts about predicted grades on Mumsnet. I find the rapid changes in University applications fascinating - I've four DC in Uni ( they are close in age and the eldest is doing a six year degree) and each year it seemed like there was something new. Fees, scrapping January exams, predicted grades, A*, the rise of unconditional offers, AAB student CAPS, ABB student caps etc etc.

The rapid rise in inaccurate A level predicted grades is astonishing. It's not just a small rise it's massive. All the facts and figures are in THIS UCAS Report 2016 on the factors associated with predicted and attained Alevel results.

The problem with predicted grades being so inaccurate is that they are the biggest factor used by universities to decide whether or not to offer a place so someone who has sensible realistic predictions will be unfairly disadvantaged compared with a student who has inflated predictions. E.g. Course X needs AAB, Two identical students apply who are likely to get BBB - student 1 has predicted grades of AAB and gets an offer, student 2 has predicted grades of BBB and doesn't get an offer. On results day. It's student get BBB but Course X still lets student 1 into the course with his dropped grades. Student 2 ends up going elsewhere. How is that fair? Student 1 has been rewarded for playing the system and taking a chance and Student 2 has been disadvantaged by his teachers accurate predictions. It's got nothing to do with academic ability but more to do with gamesmanship.


The vast majority of universities use predicted grades for making admissions decisions and yet predicted grades are more often wrong than right? Throw in unconditional offers for students who have yet to sit their exams and it gets even worse. Incidentally having an unconditional offer is one of the factors associated with having a high chance of missing your predicted grades.

Over 63 or 64 % of physics students don't get their predicted grade. Over 60% of biology students don't. That's crazy isn't it?

[tropicalfish]

I wanted to corroborate what Goodbyestranger recommended, which is the insurance offer should be sensible and relevant to the individual. So firm offer might be for oxbridge (AAA) and insurance offer of AAA might be for excellent RG uni.

In terms of getting As, its an easy grade to just miss out on by a mark or two so quite feasible for an excellent hard working student to miss out on it.

[Eeeeeek330]

If the grades improve it'll be because the exam got easier, not students and teachers working harder!

[User006point5]

in the hope that the first year's marking will be relatively lenient
I suspect they'll be marked harder, so that grades will improve over the years... thereby allowing politicians to claim the credit.

[Eeeeeek330]

RedhelenB - you are right, I was hoping for the reassurance that if a DC put the work in, and up until the exam shown themselves to be at the correct standard then they should achieve their predicted grades without 'luck' being a factor.

I am not sure if the linear are better or worse than the modular. For DD the opportunity to take AS levels gave her the opportunity to show potential, which wasn't obvious from GCSE results. But I suppose I am concerned that the teacher's might be a bit in the dark too.

[goodbyestranger]

mummymeister I have a DC doing the first round of linear A2s also a Y10 doing the first year of 1-9s, but I tend to take the view that it doesn't really matter what the structure is provided an entire cohort is doing it. In fact I'd far rather have a DC doing the first 1-9s than be the last of the old alphabetical grades, in the hope that the first year's marking will be relatively lenient :)

[Needmoresleep]

DD was at a school until Yr 11, that took linear A levels. They essentially did all their AS and A level papers at the end of Yr 13. (With the majority taking 4 A levels!)

The results, and University places, of her friends who stayed on were very good indeed. With no AS results there was no taking your foot off the throttle, and from what I hear, they all worked exceptionally hard in the run up to the exams.

DD in contrast had great AS results and a relatively low offer. And guess what...though she made her offer, her results were below prediction. It makes no difference in the scheme of things, and she really loved her sixth form, but I am pretty certain she would have done better had she taken linear A levels.

[mummymeister]

I still have some DC going through the GCSE and A levels systems and to be honest I feel very nervous about it. I get that there will be less applying for uni and that marks are standardised to be percentages in each grade. but, because of previous experiences, I really don't have a lot of confidence in the system at the moment.

One of my DC is deferring uni for a year so that they have the grades before applying. another is just started on A levels and another a year into the new graded GCSE's.

It feels like so many more things are up in the air at the moment with no as levels, no idea how the new 1 - 9 GCSE's will work, how unis will make offers with no AS levels, the new a levels etc that I just feel for those of my kids going through the system now.

[goodbyestranger]

Cross post!

[goodbyestranger]

I get your point Helen but the unpredictability of marking is fairly central here, given that it's been shown that however spot on a DC is, the examiner's mark can be very wide of the appropriate mark.

[RedHelenB]

Actually on thorougly re reading the OP I realise that marking was mentioned. My dd did a gcse early last year and one of her friends who was around her level and revised hard came out with a grade lower. On remark she got the same grade as my daughter., Appparently she has a tendency to go all round the houses so picking up that she had the correct answer wasnt easy. Obviously they have less pressure on remarks so that those correct answers were credited.

[RedHelenB]

The question wasnt about bad marking. What |I mean to say id if someone has sailed along all their A level years on As there is no reason for that to plummet to a c. However, if working to their full capacity and with the wind in the right direction you are only looking at an A on a good day it is more likely that you will be floored by a question phrased in a different way which could drop you down a grade. The good thing is I know lots of pupils whohavent achieved their target grade all year come out with that mark. Could be to do with a too generous marker but on baslance more likely to do with it clicking on the day.

[goodbyestranger]

tropicalfish for some students all offers are the same grades but should be easily achievable, unless they completely flake off. Thus a student on track for 3A* wanting to do MFL say, or Biological Sciences or even History, where offers tend to be higher, isn't well advised to have an insurance offer much below their top choice or the chances are they wouldn't be stretched at university level and could be miserable, not to mention dumbing down their employment chances later on. For some students it makes absolute sense to have two offers of the same grade but to be careful that the insurance choice doesn't have an inflexible attitude to missed grades, as some of the most competitive unis do.

[tropicalfish]

my dc dropped 3 grades below her predicted A2s. I had thought she was over predicted at the time in one subject. I really have no idea if generally people achieve or over achieve their predicted grades. Its important have a really achievable insurance place as someone else on mumsnet recently stated rather than having 2 offers with the same grades.

[Hollybollybingbong]

OP I think this year will be difficult to predict for many reasons, the new A levels and the lower numbers of candidates applying to Uni. In an ideal world the two would balance each other out (it's the only thing keeping me going!)Mummymeister Last year we sent back DS's further maths FP 4 AS paper. It was remarked and gained 3 additional marks taking it from a C to a B, the points were gained on an incorrectly marked answer. There were lots of posts saying that maths papers never get regraded so I would advise everyone to do what feels right for you and your DC.
On another point it's worth bearing in mind that grades can also go down on a remark.

[boys3]

2014 was not a good year for English Lit - well for a couple of DCs at least. DS1 had a similar experience to goodbye's. One paper marked one ums above an E Grade, fortunately for him the other three papers, with two having been taken at AS, were all at or very close to 100%. So he still received an A overall even before the re-mark. However once remarked this particular paper came back as one mark shy of an A so pushing his overall grade back to an A. That was purely down to wholly inept marking - the marks had been added up correctly, but clearly the original marker knew next to nothing about English Lit! So whilst I take redhelen's point sometimes other factors, such as in DS1's case, come into play.

[EnormousTiger]

I thik the new linear A levels continue to give x per cent A star, Y per cent A etc so if everyone does less well it will be accounted for but I may be wrong. 1 of my twins' A levels this year is linear (the new system) and the other has 2 of that kind; where as in another subject they have such high marks in AS from last summer they think they are pretty certain to get A.

It also will depend on the school and teacher. Some teachers are better than others at predicting marks and some exams are new. My 2 did pretty well (one got 100% in one AS last summer) and the school bought my twins' papers in that subject from the board so they could look at why they did better than other children in the class to learn for this year. it is very hard for reachers when the syllabus and exam system keeps changing. I am glad their school kept A As levels for lower sixth last year but not all schools are doing that.

My older 3 all got to university with no shocks particularly in results but it will always be a bit unpredictable. They had mocks today and one was telling me this afternoon about things he'd forgotten or could have put in or how the paper might have been interpreted. On the whole I think most marks are fair (I've marked A level and there was an awful lot of useful meetings and moderation meetings to get consistency).

[goodbyestranger]

Sorry OP! But those are just a couple of examples from my own DC. Over the years I've come across lots and lots of examples and several instances of whole cohorts at school being savagely marked down and then been re-marked upwards. None of mine have missed a uni place because of grades, which is lucky - but some of their friends have been less fortunate. One girl recently lost her Oxford place because by the time the whole cohort had been re-marked - the place was no longer there even though her re-marked grades meant she met the offer. Losing a uni place because of dodgy marking is serious stuff - very sorry to hear about your DC mummymeister, that's brutal.

DS2's re-mark for English Lit was 2014 and as a family we haven't had any dodgy marks under the new system. I'm another one hoping we don't have any for A Levels this summer :) I'm also hoping that if marks for the linear exams plummet across the board, unis will be indulgent to offerees. They need to fill their places after all.