Needmoresleep your post made me laugh (in a nice way!) -- if only any academic could answer your questions, but although we're clever, were not clairvoyant! (unfortunately, otherwise I'd win the lottery
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And steppemum in essence, yes it is that simple. And in essence, no it's not! helpful
The complications are not always or only or predominantly at the university end. They are at the pupil/applicant end. And in this thread, at the parent end.
I talk to enough parents who are increasingly anxious (and that's a polite way of putting it in dealing with a small minority of parents) that their children go to a "good" university, get a "good" degree, etc etc. I think it's a deep worry about social mobility and definitions of achievement & success. As parents, I think we need to be very very careful that we don't project our own ambitions and our own self-regard onto our DC's "success" as we define it. I've learnt this in several ways, and I now consciously step back. I've seen to many of "that" kind of parent to want to be one myself.
So Needmoresleep many of your questions are not ones any university person can answer, because they are about other people's achievements ie your child's and other children. And your DCs' ambitions and your own.
I know it's easy to say, but I find it is true from experience of watching 2 generations of undergrads: Most people get where they need to be, but most people will not take the route they expect to get there.
I've just been at an industry thing where I caught up with some former students, who are doing really well, but none of them has got there in a straight line.
Or as my DS has said (he knows it winds me up) "Chillax"