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Higher education

Talk to other parents whose children are preparing for university on our Higher Education forum.

How do universities allocate places?

68 replies

stonecircle · 08/09/2014 14:56

Just that really. I'm expecting ds to be predicted AAB for A2 and that set me wondering about his chances of getting a place at a university with a typical offer of AAB.

Do they say, for example, we've got 500 applications for 100 places so we will take the 100 applicants with the highest predictions? Do they say we'll look at the 200 with the highest predictions and offer places to the 100 with the best personal statements? Do they offer places on a first come first served basis to those applying with predictions of AAB and higher, provided they have a good personal statement?

Or do they all have their own ways of doing things? Anybody know?

OP posts:
UptheChimney · 10/09/2014 08:17

I dont mean subject, I mean, in a hypothetical situation, if a course is listed on UCAS as having 80 places and the tutors make 300 conditional offers suppose, for example, 200 of those conditional offers meet the grade and accept the place - where does that leave the univ when it has to accommodate 200 students when tutors were expecting 80

Fairy -- well one way of answering is to say that in 20 years of working in UK & US, but that's v different) Russell Group universities, where we're selecting, that's never happened!

So, to generalise from my subject area, we generally have around 60 places. We get around 600-700 applications, so it's a 1:10 ration of places to applications. We're generally in the top 5 of our subject area and university of the year league tables, so this is a standard ratio.

But, the cumulative maths of the process means that we rarely get the kind of overshoot you wonder about.

  1. Our place is only 1 of 5 choices pupils make.
  2. We cull about 33% at the paper application point, as not in our ball park for grades (we typically offer AAB-AAA)
  3. Then, we have a selection round on campus, inviting those 66% -- inevitably some of them don't come, and some don't make it through that round.
  4. So we may end up with making offers to 50% of all in the initial pool of applications.
  5. We generally aim to offer to 3 to 4 times the number of students we need to make our university-determined quota.
  6. After all offers are out, pupils make 2 choices: Firm Accept, and Insurance
  7. The percentage that Firmly Accept our offer is called the "conversion rate". Historically, ours is high -- around 50%. Other places I've worked have conversion rates between 20 and 35%
  8. Then we wait for A level results.

So if there's the huge blip you hypothesise (given the Govedevastation, this is unlikely) it's still not in the order you wonder about . Does that all make sense? Admissions is a dark art

So if you do the arithmetic, you'll see how it works. Roughly.

Add to that that all stats are tracked historically by university central Admissions Offices (not departments) and senior admins in Admissions Offices are, IME, extremely good & knowledgeable. Some of the smartest admins I've ever worked with. So they can work back from historical data to tell us the number of offers we need to make to get the required number of feet on the ground in September (although having said that, we're 20 over this year but I'm on a 3 year research grant to write 2 books so don't teach this cohort muted hurrah-- )

The most oversubscribed course I have seen is via the experience of a friend's daughter who was adamant that she wanted to go to Drama school. They now offer degrees. There was a big audition near me, so friend + daughter stayed here. I went along to nosey industrial spying Apparently they have over 1,000 applications for just under 20 places! And they charge an audition fee ... Dont put your daughter on the stage, Mrs Worthington.

UptheChimney · 10/09/2014 08:23

UptheChimney. I said I didn't believe it

What you're holding as an opinion - against all the evidence - is that most academics in this country do not adhere to the professional principles of transparency and equity, let alone following the national procedures & regulations of UCAS and HEFCE.

You're basically accusing academics and universities of corruption & unprofessional behaviour.

I don't know what your job is, but please don't judge others by your own professional standards. So don't get on your high horse with me. And school yard taunts about "selecting or recruiting" are just risible, and demonstrate just how unfounded your "opinion" is.

Sistertoasaint · 10/09/2014 11:09

UtC DS wants to apply to a course where there are typically 300 applicants for 25 spaces. Assuming a third are culled on the results at application point that leaves 200. I don't think there is an interview process / selection round, so do you think it would be in order for them to make offers to between 75 and 100 applicants?

AllMimsyWereTheBorogoves · 10/09/2014 11:27

You really can't generalise from one course to another, or from one university to another.

If students on a course need access to a lab or workshop, that's a big constraint that I would imagine would make the admissions staff more cautious about over-offering for that course.

For other courses, if there's very little tutorial/small group work, and the teaching is mostly done in pack-em-in lectures with no problem about finding a big enough lecture theatre, why not offer to everybody who qualifies?

Needmoresleep · 10/09/2014 11:38

Dear Prof Chimney,

I would have posted last night, but did not want to put you in a position of feeling you might need to respond. Though it may not always appear so, I and others really value the information and insights provided by you and others with significant experience.

Having attempted the polite note (which I hope has improved my prospects of a 2.1) I would want to add a little.

In an earlier post on experience gained from last year I suggested parents/prospective students take a look at the ratio of applications to places. My sense they are rising quickly for top ranking Universities in some applied/vocational maths based subjects including economics and engineering, whilst they have always been high for law and medicine.

Warwick suggested they had had 2000 qualified candidates for about 350 places on their economics course. Numbers last year could have been even higher, as English skills across the EU improve and non UK EU students become more aware of the scope for studying outside their home country.

Somehow they have to choose, and also make sure they treat all candidates equally. (Not just UCAS requirements but European law).

Actual results are likely to be significantly higher than the standard offer, again something that shows up on UCAS statistics.

I assume, based on observation, that on receiving the application they do a quick triage. Yes, no and maybe. The yesses would be candidates who would be towards the top of the heap whatever. I assume here that already achieving your grades helps. DS received a quick yes from his fifth choice, most probably because he had a predicted A* in Further maths, plus it was a department that was aiming to expand its numbers. He then waited till the end of March to hear from choices 2, 3 & 4.

He got one of these. But not the other two. One of the others offered him a course in another faculty.

  1. Why did it take so long? LSE, who presumably have had complaints in the past, did their best to communicate, with a series of emails (all containing over optimistic deadlines, but hey) saying his application had been received, he met standards and it had been passed to the department etc. He was clearly in a maybe pile. The Student Room thread suggested he was far from alone. What seemed to be happening was that LSE needed to wait first till the application deadline in January, and then for some students (mature students or EU students with matriculations that did not differentiate sufficiently) to sit an additional written test. Then each week, as some applicants firmed and insured other Universities, thereby fine tuning their numbers, they winnowed the maybe pile by accepting some and rejecting some.

I assume then on the final day, with knowledge of the proportion of accepted students likely to drop out or not make their grades, faculty members sat in a darkened room, presumably with a bottle of gin and sorted the remaining applications based on very small differences in their paper applications. The numbers of application are so high that at this point it has to be pretty random.

  1. What causes one candidate to be successful and another not? Each University will have its own scoring system, but inevitably on the outside there is massive speculation.

What does the University think it is there for? International reputation and standing? Providing opportunity for the educationally disadvantaged? Providing wider education and learning in a collegiate/campus structure or tutoring the very bright and motivated in their subject? How do you balance a good application from a student who is top of the year at a bog-standard comp who clearly has not had the right advice on writing a PS, against a superbly educated son of a Parisian banker, or a seriously clever International student whose PS was professionally written.

(I know International students normally compete in a different pool but the University has to make budget decisions which have to balance the additional fees against the fact that a poorer EU candidate may need bursary support.)

Strands based on these small samples, suggest Cambridge likes really top mathematicians, and Warwick is impressed by good linguists. DS thinks that his decision to take an essay subject rather than a science as his fourth A level may have helped with LSE, even though his overall UMS average suffered, plus the fact that he had registered for and attended a number of LSE public lectures. But who knows.

I think we are happy to accept it is an honest process, though some parents clearly think that some Universities/departments are concerned about managing their UK private/state ratios, and indeed I hear that some private schools now actively steer students away from applying to some Departments. Oddly we know two very bright students who, apart from bursaries to private schools, should have scored lots of contextualised points who fared no better, indeed perhaps not as well, as their peers.

Another variant is that Oxbridge is worried that their international reputation means that they could fill places on more mathsy/vocational degrees with superb non-UK students but that they are keen to maintain a collegiate approach and so give weight to students who look as if they will engage fully in wider University life.

Again who knows. Or rather Chimney and others will know how individual Universities/Departments score. Students and their parents don't.

At an Alumni talk about where the LSE was headed, the Director of the LSE said they had got numbers badly wrong when higher fees were introduced. They had anticipated a higher drop out rate, which then did not happen. They had to live with it.

Sorry about the essay.

Kind regards etc

titchy · 10/09/2014 11:53

Can i just make one thing clear - the comment re Warwick having 2000 applications for 350 places made me think that maybe folk aren't aware, but you get 5 choices on the UCAS form. Those 5 places do NOT know whether they are your first choice, or last choice.

True Oxford and Cambridge can probably say that 80% of their applicants will have them as first choice, but the same cannot be said of Warwick or anywhere else - so they can probably say that around 80% of the 2000 applicants don't' actually want Warwick at all - probably only 400 of the 2000 would ever put Warwick first.

It's a bit like when you apply to schools and they say they're oversubscribed with 1500 applicants for a school with a 60 PAN - what they don't know is how many of those 1500 put them as first choice, so the 1500 is a bit of a red herring.

AllMimsyWereTheBorogoves · 10/09/2014 11:57

Yes, I always think that about school admissions, titchy. It's all very well knowing that a school was oversubscribed and made lots of offers, but how many of those offers were accepted in the end?

Littleham · 10/09/2014 12:04

When I started going to the open days / offer days those application ratios really scared me, until I realised how the system worked. Most of the applicants will go elsewhere (such as one of the other five choices), so your dc's chances are much better than they first appear when you read the prospectus.

Needmoresleep · 10/09/2014 12:06

Titchy, this may be true in some circumstances, but for Economics, Warwick consistently ranks in the CUG top five. Last year No 1 above both Oxford and Cambridge, this year No 4.

Many students prefer a campus to London (UCL and LSE are the others) so the offer conversion rate will be high. They also offer terrific study abroad opportunities.

If they had a low conversion rate they would make lots of offers. Instead they reject a number of very qualified candidates.

Back to my earlier comment about studying the stats carefully if you are aiming for a competitive course.

Littleham · 10/09/2014 12:09

....if it is hyper competitive like Oxford / Cambridge / Medicine / maths, then it must be much scarier.

Needmoresleep · 10/09/2014 12:19

Littleham,

Based on observation maths is not as bad. Cambridge/Warwick may be, but many top flight mathematicians, especially those not from the UK, seem to prefer more vocational courses such as engineering and economics. Certainly the two DS knew who got in for Cambridge Economics would have been strong candidates for most if not all maths courses. Ditto with some of the engineers.

In contrast some not out and out brilliant mathematicians seemed to get on some pretty prestigious courses in the UK and US. Perhaps maths is simpler in a way. UMS/STEP provides information about where a candidate is on the standard distribution and different Universities know which part of the graph they are aiming for. Engineering applications also seemed to be sorted out more quickly than economics, again perhaps because scoring and differentiation was simpler.

Needmoresleep · 10/09/2014 12:21

Medicine and Law seem just as scary if not more. However these courses often interview, as does Oxbridge, which gives more data to work on.

AllMimsyWereTheBorogoves · 10/09/2014 12:25

I could be wrong, but I think I remember from when my son was applying three years ago that both Oxford and Cambridge have about four times as many applications as places. I would have expected it to be more, but the early deadline and the very high entry criteria mean a lot of applicants rule themselves out.

Littleham · 10/09/2014 13:10

That's good news, as I always thought Maths was one of the competitive ones. In that case I may get away from more stress as my children like languages, history and maths.

I would have expected Oxford / Cambridge to have more applications than that too. Worth a shot then if you have high predictions.

gauss · 10/09/2014 13:51

Only Oxbridge maths is incredibly competitive; Imperial is competitive; Durham and Warwick are perceived as being competitive for maths but actually have quite high offer/application rates. (70% for Warwick maths). Imperial, Warwick and Oxbridge rely on UMS, MAT and STEP which are objective measures for picking out the students who are strongest in maths. An advantage of doing MAT for Imperial/Oxford rather than STEP for Cambridge/Imperial/Warwick is that the offers for the former do not depend on STEP, for which results are only known in August.

A student who gets AAA+ can easily get offers from many RG universities for maths, since apart from the top five everybody else is recruiting. IMO (as an academic in Maths) Oxbridge maths is ahead of the rest but there isn't a great deal of difference between Warwick, Imperial and other RG universities for maths. Places like Durham, Bath, Bristol are trading on a perceived reputation rather than being genuinely stronger in maths.

titchy · 10/09/2014 14:08

needmoresleep (and others!) see here for Economics at Warwick:
Warwick

Over 60% get offers.

Which are fairly new to the university comparison market and some of their data has been a bit odd (though to their credit they have agreed to pull data items when their oddities were pointed out to them), so posters may want to be a bit careful with these ratios - but they make interesting and very useful reading. And offer rates may well go up for 2015 entry as the cap on numbers is removed.

Needmoresleep · 10/09/2014 14:12

Warwick, presumably, will have a level of self selection, in that you only apply if you are happy taking STEP. Hence the high offer/acceptance rate will reflect the fact that it is a regular insurance for candidates otherwise aiming for Cambridge/Imperial.

Durham and elsewhere presumably pick up non-Oxbridge candidates who decide to by-pass STEP, some perhaps concerned that they wont be supported at school.

Amongst DS' peers Cambridge was much preferred to Oxford for maths, and competition considered stronger. I don't know if this is true.

gauss · 10/09/2014 14:19

I can't give an unbiased answer on Cambridge v Oxford maths so I will refrain from commenting.

I'm not sure Warwick is generally seen as an insurance for Imperial. Their offers are not particularly different (both STEP and MAT put some students off) and a lot of students don't want to go to London because of the costs. Imperial has quite a large fraction of foreign students in its maths program. I would actually rate Warwick slightly above Imperial for maths but perhaps student perception is different - my rating is shaped by their research profiles as well as by their undergraduate programs.

Needmoresleep · 10/09/2014 14:34

Titchy,

HE threads seem more prone to disagreement than others. I don't know why as I have really valued others' input and experience.

Ditto I can only contribute from my experience. At the open day Warwick were clear that they had a very high number of qualified applicants and that they could only make so many offers. DS' experience was that despite predictions of A A A A B in a good mix of subjects, good GCSEs, lots of reading round, suitable work experience, essay prizes etc, he ended up on the "maybe" pile at three Universities and in March only got one offer. He was not alone in this.

Your experience of the accuracy of the link you provided may be different. However I would advise any would be economists to look closely at relative and effective supply and demand for courses. Student Room gives information on offers received the previous years and threads with postings by students waiting for offers.

Waiting six months during that crucial A level year is distracting for would be medical students, lawyers or economists. However as Up the Chimney suggests, Universities need to get their numbers right. We had not expected it to be so tough or so stretched out. It might have been easier had we known.

Needmoresleep · 10/09/2014 14:47

gauss, agree. Poor wording on my part. I just wanted to say that if you weren't doing STEP anyway Warwick's requirement for STEP would be a disincentive, so students will be self selecting. Certainly with economics, Student Room suggests that many applicants apply to four out of the top five in the hope they get one, rather than the traditional one aspirational, two achievable and two fall back. I assume that will be the same for maths.

A lot of the decision making between London (Imperial, UCL and LSE) and Warwick for top five ranked courses seems to be based, rightly, on a preference between campus or capital.

Presumably all these institutions will provide a platform for the most able students to continue to post-graduate level.

secretsquirrels · 10/09/2014 15:21

many applicants apply to four out of the top five in the hope they get one. Certainly true in the case of my DS. He more or less went down the list in ranking for Maths and excluded the London ones.
Warwick was his insurance but would certainly have been his first choice without a Cambridge offer.
His reason for choosing Cambridge over Oxford was purely that Cambridge was ranked first for Maths. In hindsight and I told him but he wouldn't listen he thinks it would have been better to choose Oxford as someone upthread said, because the results of the MAT are available before the offer.

steppemum · 11/09/2014 09:55

We have a meeting with a university admissions tutor (to do with my job) and he explained how they do it.

Most places work fairly simply. You need eg ABB to do this course. They then offer all applicants who fulfill their criteria ABB.
Even when places interview, the offers are much broader than you would think.
They only use the other things (personal statements etc) if there is a candidate who is in some way borderline, usually with results too low.

We couldn't believe it, it seemed too simple, but he said no really, it wasn't that complicated, offers are quite straightforward.

lljkk · 11/09/2014 11:14

MN threads make it sound impossibly complicated. And all endless talk about Oxbridge and medicine (sheesh, like 2.5% of places merit 90% of discussion?). I like the early poster here who said Chillax and follow instructions when ready within given deadlines.

Needmoresleep · 11/09/2014 13:00

lijkk that is a little unfair. MN posts normally reflect people's need for background knowledge. If you are applying for a course with 100 places and 100 qualified candidates there is lots of scope to chill. If you are applying for a course with 100 places and 1000 qualified candidates, then an applicant will want to make sure their application is as good as it can possibly be.

Oxbridge threads serve a particular purpose for people who find the process daunting, and whose DC may be attending schools with less tradition of preparing candidates.

Littleham · 11/09/2014 13:28

lljkk - I guess it can look over complicated, but having been through it once, there are all sorts of undercurrents going on that I had no idea about (just as well really). I really like understanding what it is like from the 'admissions' side of the table.

Without the advice on this site (from last year) I honestly think my dd1 might have missed her university place. It is not just the advice on ucas / applications that has been completely invaluable to me, but also advice to help with A Levels.

So in my wider family, only two people have been to university. We honestly have no idea about Oxford / Cambridge / Medicine / Maths Olympiads / aptitude tests etc. Even if they don't apply to these places, I've been able to feed all these ideas back to my teenagers & hopefully they will take some of it on board.

But what I most value is the moral support & ability to offload. Just talking about it all helps me 'chillax'. I already feel much happier about it all this year with child number 2.

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