to think that if the media didn't make a big drama out of swine flu there'd be a lot less hysteria?

[spicemonster]

You're as likely to die from swine flu as you are from ordinary flu according to Professor Azra Ghani, an epidemiologist at Imperial:

"Our best estimate, based on the cases that come to the health system is around 1 in 200 (deaths) at a maximum which is very similar to the estimate you would see for seasonal influenza but that doesn't take into account many of those milder infections where individuals may stay off for a few days or not display any symptoms at all."

So not very likely at all. And yet we have people jamming NHS Direct lines, flooding their GPs' surgeries and hysterically avoiding wedding/M&T groups/any other group occasion.

Now, while I want to shout 'get a grip' at them, AIBU to think that the media hysterically reporting that someone has died is massively contributing to this mass panic? If they reported every single death from flu every winter, there'd be just as much panic, surely.

It makes me really, really cross.

Nope Longtalljosie, she's prob the reason I needed a '78' at the end to log-in

I am firmly based here in the UK!

That's true squeakywheel but I don't think that's how most people understand it. Take the stat roulade posted. I assume that means per 1,000 members of the population, 5 will die of swine flu against 1 from 'normal' flu. But I think a lot of people are interpreting that as if 1000 people have swine flu, 5 will die. And that's a vastly different thing.

longtalljosie - of course I don't want a news blackout. But I would like some more balanced reporting. I would like some explanation of statistics and risk because I think they're difficult for a lot of people to understand (not least because they're so easily massaged), I would like more coverage of the numbers of people who have probably had swine flu without knowing, of the numbers of people who have it and make a full recovery and lastly, a list of people who that's likely to include (ie most of the population). Basically some coverage of the less dramatic facts about it.

dewdrop - have a look here for more info (and leningrad too) NHS high risk. I would give your consultant a call to check but I'd imagine you will want to keep your child home until they've made a full post-op recovery in any event.

mariemarie my DD also had a runny ose and cough last week. I posted about her earlier in the thread ifshe had swine flu she would almost certainly need hospital treatment so I am very sure it wasn't that. It just seemed to be a virus or cold type thing and I think with flu there would be a temperature. Also I think it tends to come on suddenly unlike a cold.

I mean if it was flu there would be a fever. My DDs paed hates me saying she's got a temperature he says we all have that!

I absolutely agree that the mortality rate of this flu is (based on current data) within normal range (albeit top end of normal range).

But the virulence is much greater.

Greater virulence means that more people will catch it; and therefore more people will die. Therefore the public have every right to be worried that they are more likely to die of swine flu than seasonal flu. That is a FACT. It cannot be questioned. It is based on data.

When a person is affected by flu there is no need for them to be any more worried than if they have seasonal flu.

Incidently I believe that the numbers posted by squeakywheel are correct and are being interpretted correctly; BUT they have been skewed a little. The actual numbers I believe are that normal range of deaths are 1-5 per 1000 affected individuals die of seasonal flu(typically 1-2). At the moment 4-5 per 1000 affected individuals are dying of swine flu. The media have missed out the 1-5 and quoted it as 1 per 1000 for dramatic impact.

Dewdrop Here [http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/Pandemic-flu/Pages/Adviceforpregnantwomen.aspx link] also on front page of mumsnet there is a link . Hope op goes ok

excellent post mrsbean78

dd2's nursery has swine flu
dd1's school has tens of cases
dh's work has it (office of just 40)
my sister had it

so yes, i am being extra vigilant about hand washing etc.

and the DDs weren't allowed pick n mix at the sweetshop yesterday (?!?!?? i know, mad, but it's pretty unhygienic up on the counter where everyone stands waiting to pay. is that really stupid?)

in some ways though i think i'd rather they get it now, in the school holidays when they can rest and are generally in good health. Better now than in depth of winter when chest infections/colds etc all around too.

MarieMarie - sorry to hear your daughter has the sneezes. The little man has had a cough + sneezes for the last couples of days, but no temperature so not worrying (yet). With regards to the plane, i don't think you should worry about your daughter affecting others, more like in a confined space (and on a short haul flight where they are likely just to recirculate the air) is she likely to catch something, being more suceptible. Have you considered driving + eurotunnel?

Prefetparfait - I am not sure more people will die because of greater virulance, but the more people infect, the greater the number of replication cycles completed, therefore the greater the chance of a mutation to a more resistant form

I couldn't agree more with the OP.

The thing is we are now moving into a traditionally quiet news period. The journos must be loving all this hysteria (which they are creating). I honestly don't think the media will be happy until they have provoked us into panic buying/rioting outside hospitals.

"Prefetparfait - I am not sure more people will die because of greater virulance, but the more people infect, the greater the number of replication cycles completed, therefore the greater the chance of a mutation to a more resistant form"

Number of people that it is capable of infecting is a big component of virulence. I am not talking about the virus doing more to people. I am talking about it doing it to more people.

I have been ill for a fortnight.

No idea if it is normal flu or ye olde swine flu. I called the dr (to see if he could do anything about the bloody cough rather than in a swine flu panic), and he said that when they were testing only 5% of people with all the right symptoms actually had swine flu.

What I have had has been shit. I have shut my business down atm (I hope my customers are understanding still - I plan to be back on track on Monday) as I couldn't stay upright long enough to deal with it. I have some lovely friends who didn't care what I had who let me round their houses so I could collapse whilst their DC entertained DS.

But with all the hysteria, I haven't been worried tbh. Maybe I am just blase (sp? blaze didn't like right either!!), and should have been more concerned considering pregnancy. I am of the opinion that most people will get it now regardless of what precautions you take.

Oh and we had no food supplies, and luckily tax credits and housing benefits chose this fortnight to cock up and give us no money. We have had a lot of toast and cereal

PP - apologies, i stand corrected

This appears to be an "informative website" that actually quantifies the confirmed cases on a geographical basis. If you zoom in on your area it shows exact numbers etc. This has but my mind at rest a bit as there has only been one confirmed case within a 20 mile radius of use. It appears to be mainly confined to areas of dense population. Hope this helps to have actual data we can form our own conclusions about, not be spoon fed what the papers want us to see.

www.flutrack.info/sfd/Map.aspx

I am particularly pissed off about the reporting of the GP who apparently died from SF, along with the little girl who died the same day. I think that marked a turning point in panic levels.
And then a few days later it turned out that the GP had a heart condition, but at first it was reported as if the SF was wholly responsible for his death.

you're right Katisha, i was perfectly calm until that little girl died, not far from me, with dd the same age. Suddenly it all felt real and "could be us".

Hi,
My sister and BIL have swine flu (apparently) in the UK at the moment. My brother lives in the same house (I live in Greece) and he is due to visit me in a weeks time.

I am 29 weeks pregnant and have a 4 year old DS and am worried whether I should see my brother or avoid him when he is over.

Health care in this part of Greece is patchy to say the least and at least an hours drive away!

Any suggestions?

Julie xx

Jules I would be cautious.

I heard on the radio this morning that pregnant women in the UK (esp 2nd & 3rd trimester) are being advised by the department of health to avoid busy places, be extra cautious.

2 of the UK deaths have been attributed to pg.

I know, I read that to on the BBC website.

Worrying....

I was being calm about it all and thought a lot of the fuss was media hype. But now the Government advice to pregnant mums and those with under 5s is to avoid crowds and unnecessary travel. This sounds like vague advice to me, what's the definition of a crowd? More than thirty people in a shop?

I'm 19 weeks pregnant and have a 3 year old and 1 year old. I don't want to put myself or them at risk but I don't really know what I should be / shouldn't be doing. Lock myself in the house until my husband brings it home from work?

Just try to avoid getting it. You won't be able to avoid all risks but where you have a choice, use it to pick the least risky option. I think someone has said go on emptier tubes, for instance - avoid travelling in the rush hour. Maybe try to shop when the shops are less busy. If someone near you is coughing, change seats. Use hand gel after touching lift buttons.

Just use your common sense. There's a virus out there which is spread through coughs and sneezes and on hands, and you want to avoid getting it. And have a plan for if your husband does bring it home. At the first sign of illness get him sleeping in the spare room and using a separate toilet if possible. Keep kids away from him and wash your hands a lot. It'll be a pain but it won't be forever.

And then reassure yourself by remembering that even if you do get it, the chances are all of you will be absolutely fine.

Hear! Hear!

I went to the shops today but I went early, kept my distance from other shoppers and sent my husband to cash out. We took our trusty gel, too!

I was going to see Harry Potter tonight but I will avoid now until the crowds die down a bit; also going to avoid the train for now and we'll go to work together (a bit out of my husband's way, a bit of a pain, but doable). Going to see about having the receptionist at work ask people re: swine flu before admitting them to the department, too.. just minimise the risk, really.

I might up my fruit and veg a bit. Also had become a bit more lax with the multivits since 20 weeks, but will make sure I'm taking regularly..

Going to the asthma nurse on Thurs to make sure my plan is up to date..

Can't do any more..

My Dr wasn't the tiniest bit bothered about my symptoms and pregnancy

Hi,
I´m a GP in Germany and as one family of my practice, who live in UK called me on Friday very concerned about what´s going on with Swine Flu and what to do now, I would like to advice a website, which tells you what you really can do besides "school-medicine".
www.hpathy.com/diseases/Swine-flu-symptoms-treatment.asp