to think that if the media didn't make a big drama out of swine flu there'd be a lot less hysteria?

[spicemonster]

You're as likely to die from swine flu as you are from ordinary flu according to Professor Azra Ghani, an epidemiologist at Imperial:

"Our best estimate, based on the cases that come to the health system is around 1 in 200 (deaths) at a maximum which is very similar to the estimate you would see for seasonal influenza but that doesn't take into account many of those milder infections where individuals may stay off for a few days or not display any symptoms at all."

So not very likely at all. And yet we have people jamming NHS Direct lines, flooding their GPs' surgeries and hysterically avoiding wedding/M&T groups/any other group occasion.

Now, while I want to shout 'get a grip' at them, AIBU to think that the media hysterically reporting that someone has died is massively contributing to this mass panic? If they reported every single death from flu every winter, there'd be just as much panic, surely.

It makes me really, really cross.

I do agree that the media hysteria is a bigger problem and strain on the NHS than the actual infection.

I do however fiercly disagree with the statement "You're as likely to die from swine flu as you are from ordinary flu according to Professor Azra Ghani, an epidemiologist at Imperial:"

Yes if you take 1000 people with Swine flu and 1000 people with seasonal flu there would be approximately the same number of deaths in both groups.

BUT more people are going to contract swine flu than would be expected to contract seasonal flu, therefore there will be more deaths (in absolute numbers) and therefore you are technically more likely to die of swine flu than seasonal flu. And that is the problem.

I think the really worrying thing is that it is more serious in children unlike ordinary seasonal flu which is worse for the elderly.With swine flu the over 65s are unlikely to get it but those between 2 and 16 are most likely and are most likely to be seriously ill with it.I got this from a radio discussion yesterday so no link but I am scared for the children.

I don't agree pramma.

More under 5's are being affected than over 65's.

However I suspect that if you take 100 affected under 5's and 100 affected over 65's as many - if not more over 65's will be hospitalised.

I can't find the right data to support that (I can find data which may suggest that though - but there is info missing so I can'tbe sure)

I am getting concerned now, I usually don't with this kind of press induced histeria,but my son(4) does attend nursery,catch everything going and is due to have an ENT operation, can someone tell me what they think,is post op classed as an underlying health condition??I am worried if he contacts it wiil his lack of ability to fight infection after the op be worth not going through with it???

Totally agree with thread title.

Also , think this suits the government right down to the ground. If they deal with this pandemic well and efficiently (ie make a big massive deal out of it!) then we might just forget the state of the economy and all those people losing their jobs in time for the next election.

My ds fell over and cut his finger on broken glass a few days ago. I rang NHS direct it took me nearly 40 minutes to get thorough and when I did and started describing what had happened, I kid you not the operator interrupted me to ask if he had any flu symptoms and to ask whether I was actually ringing about "swine flu"? The proportion of calls re swine flu must be immense. I find that the most scary thing that resources are being stretched like this at this stage. It is that that would make me prepare with stocked up food and medication etc.

When I got to the hospital to have finger checked despite the notices in Big Black Lettering telling people with flu symptoms to stay home there were so many people sat around with masks on, because of their flu symptoms. Am thinking if you are well enough to sit in hospital A&E with your flu then you probably don't need to be there.

PrefetParfait my point was that over 65s dont get it, not that they dont die if they do!The reason is that there were flu epidemics in the late 40s,early 50s which were a similar strain to H1N1 and even if people didnt actually catch it they would have been exposed to the virus and built up a lifelong immunity to it.This of course is info based on a radio discussion and applies only to those living in the UK 60+ years ago.I am a 65yr old asthmatic grandma and am much more worried about dgcs than I am about self and dh[73].I hope when vaccine is available children and pregnant women get it first.

Everything I have read roulade suggests that swine flu is no more virulent than 'ordinary' flu - not sure where those figures came from.

Prefetparfait - you may disagree with Prof. Ghani's statement but it's still true. The fact that more people are likely to get swine flu than ordinary flu (as far as we know) doesn't mean you're more likely to die. Yes, more people will die overall but her point is that, at an individual level, it's no more dangerous. Whether it's likely to affect more people is a matter for concern for public health but is not really relevant for the individual citizen provided they are in good health.

And that again underlines my point. Yes there should be concerns in how we deal with this from a public health perspective but people are panicking. longtalljosie - I am well able to assess risk but not everyone is. The NHS Direct phoneline and GP's surgeries are not being overwhelmed by people who have swine flu but by people who are simply looking for reassurance that it's not going to be like the Black Death. The media is causing people to panic and putting an intolerable strain on our health services.

There was an interesting article about risk in yesterday's Times here

I can't remember if it was 6pm london news or channel 4 news the other night.

Leningrad - this is what you need

Spicemonster - I realise people are alarmed by swine flu, but are you saying you'd rather there was some sort of news blackout? Because what I see is a lot of effort to put things into context. Which is why we're immediately told people had "underlying health problems" - as much as they can tell us without breaching confidentiality.

What are considered underlying health problems can anyone elaborate??

Likelihood of dying has different components - likelihood of catching it and likelihood of dying once infected. If you ask 'assume you've got flu - how likely are you to die?' then the answer is 'no more likely than with normal flu' (which is already not 'completely unlikely' though if you're asthmatic, say). If you ask 'how likely are you to die of this flu?' without starting from the assumption that you've already got it, then the answer is 'more likely than with normal flu', just because the likelihood of catching it is much greater.

So it is newsworthy from an individual point of view, as well as from the (big story) public health pov. And why not, given we're not all in perfect health so don't all have reasons to be blase? It's not as though there are special daily newspapers for people with asthma and so on that you can push all the flu news into so no one healthy has to know about it (although god forbid the golden people with perfect health should feel a second's worry about this, obviously).

Now that the containment phase has passed they ought to be clearer that people don't have to phone if they're not worried - I think most people still think of swine flu as a kind of notifiable disease where you have to talk to someone medical about it. If they don't want people phoning in that way, they should make it a bit clearer.

please some one help by explaining or trying to,what kind of underlying health problems are they talking about?
My son (4) is due to have op in 2 wks and as the op will effect his immune system I am worried about it...postponement perhaps could be an answer as it is not a life and death op but swine flu and underlying problems with it is...am I just going crazy?

Piece on BBC re risk figures link
not sure what underlying health issues means but would assume it's a pre existing condition that would make your immune system weaker or more susceptible . I would speak to dr re your dc op as they are likely to give you best view.

I don't think you are going crazy! I would speak to the hospital about the worries you have but i'm pretty sure they are not cancelling ops at all due to swine flu.

Yes I will chat with GP ...as though I know NHS are not cancelling ops its the once home scenario...he is not to mix with kids for 7-10 days afterwards anyway as his immune system will be low,its this time I am concerned about as he will be weaker than normal.

Have you seen tips on newborns and swine flu dewdrops as might be some stuff in there you could adopt for ds when he is recuperating

No where do I find this info poopy34 ???
is it on mumsnet?

Cant beleive this now, after posting on here last night. My daughter has woken this morning sneezing and with a runny nose. Her sister has also now just started with a runny nose.

They have no other symptoms. Please tell me that this could just be a common cold.

We are flying to France on monday morning for our holidays and Ive just read on the internet that France are one of the countries screening visitors for swine flu (thru a thermal scanner apparantly).

Am panicking abit now, this is our first holiday abroad because my daughter has only just been given clearance to fly by the hospital due to her heart problems. And also, what if it is just a common cold, could they refuse us on the plane if they are sneezing and blowing noses??

poppy34 sorry that sounded bad!!!!!!!

I am asthmatic (with quite a high dosage of inhaled steroids/a previous history of severe exacerbations following viral infections); nearly 23 weeks pregnant and a healthcare worker..

so

I think that the rest of the country who do not, like me, fall into high risk categories should be kept a little scared..

because

if everyone who's scared washes their hands a bit more or thinks twice before sneezing/snotting all over everything, it might save my life.

Truthfully, most people won't follow these measures unless they are scared for themselves - they won't do it for the greater good with the same degree of rigour etc

I'm not even a very poorly person compared to a lot of people out there with weakened immune systems, but I am at significant risk because swine flu IS different to seasonal flu

a) more people will get it, because there's less community immunity
and
b) it infiltrates the lungs about five times more deeply than seasonal flu (if the dose is high enough), so is more dangerous for those of us with pre-existing respiratory infections than seasonal flu.

mariemarie my ds has also snotty nose and sore throat but hey they always get this once in nursery/school environment !!! you will know more by monday as more symptoms will occur by then if it is SF xx

MrsBean - are you my friend in Australia, or are you another MrsBean?

PS -

The underlying health conditions that have (so far) put people at highest risk are:

• asthma (of a severity requiring drug treatment in the last three years/hospitalisation) and/or other respiratory illness e.g. COPD, interstitial lung disease etc * most hospitalisations have been in this category *
• cardiovascular problems (heart/stroke etc)
• diabetes
• other forms of suppressed immune systems (e.g. some cancers, HIV etc)

Pregnancy is another risk factor, especially in the second and third trimesters.