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UK expects a 'handful' of cases

27 replies

Molotov · 11/10/2014 18:22

m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29584816

Yikes.

Hoping that this doesn't come to pass. Judging from how things have transpired so far though, I worry that it is an underestimation.

OP posts:
Molotov · 11/10/2014 18:34

Also, I have been worried about Ebola spreading beyond W.Africa for a couple of months now; the risk of such occurence has been possible for a while.

Why the preparation now? Why the worry about risk now? (Aside from the obvious US/Spain cases?)

OP posts:
GlacindaTheTroll · 11/10/2014 18:54

There have been warnings about the possibility if a traveler taking Ebola to a different place, falling ill there (and perhaps infecting other people there)..

This is a risk whenever there is an Ebola outbreak, and the risk is bigger when an outbreak is large and long running (this one being the largest and longest ever).

The WHO put this outbreak i to the highest threat category in July (about the timeit became the biggest ever) and concern has mounted because it is not being brought under control, and the number of cases is increasing.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/10/2014 20:14

It is quite logical that we will get some imported cases but I think we can take some reassurance that despite the massive balls up with Duncan in Texas there so far hasn't been any secondary spread.

LittleBairn · 11/10/2014 20:36

That's what has relaxed me a bit too Bad Kitty. The way it was handled in Texas was outrageously lax but no one else so ar seems to be ill that's a really good sign.

Iflyaway · 11/10/2014 21:09

Without sounding alarmist - ha! - Ebola is out of control now...

Why they didn't get on the case immediately by March - June when it was spreading rapidly in Liberia and Sierra Leone.... Africa, innit

MSF has already been overwhelmed by it.

I am worried that it has infected a Spanish woman, who knows who she was in contact with.

Dread to think how it will spread in Europe. If it hits Asia god help us.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/10/2014 21:26

IFly, it's quite early on, but so far there seem to be no secondary cases in Spain either.

britishbakeoffblues · 11/10/2014 21:32

The woman in Spain had contact with the missionary that died and has admitted she touched her face with a dirty glove by accident.
To catch Ebola, infected body fluids (saliva, blood, urine, faeces etc) has to come into contact with your mucous membranes.
It can show up in semen up to 3 months later so use a condom.
You're not going to catch it standing in Tesco even if it does arrive here!!!

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 11/10/2014 22:39

I thought the woman in Spain had said she didn't touch her face with the glove. I think it was the health minister or someone that said she did and she denied it.

A small number of cases was always going to be a possibility, however remote. What is very, very unlikely to happen is any uncontainable, large outbreak from those cases.

Even with the whole clusterfuck of errors in the Dallas case, that situation doesn't look like a possibility at the moment.

HeySoulSister · 11/10/2014 22:44

They USED to say it was very very unlikely to come to the uk..... Now it's 'likely'..... It will come, I'm sure, and we won't be able to contain it

Now is the time to restrict entry via international travel. But we won't, it's as if the authorities want it to happen. They have the chance to act now, yesterday, last week. How many warnings do they need?

raspberryripple43 · 11/10/2014 22:47

Any health worker who is helping those with Ebola has to be applauded. But really, why weren't Spanish nurses properly trained and monitored? She was only an aux nurse, so not trained in infection control? And why did they not have a go to number to call if they did fall ill? Instead she rocked up another hospital, and apparently, didn't mention she had been in contact with Ebola

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 11/10/2014 22:50

What makes you think we won't be able to contain it, HeySoulSister

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/10/2014 22:51

There were clearly failings in Spain.

Already there are no direct flights from the affected countries to the uk.

HeySoulSister · 11/10/2014 23:04

rafa containing it depends on every person entering the uk to be honest.... Who is entering the uk these days?? Do we even know?

Besides that, the amount of people showing 'signs' after the first case becomes official will take all spare resources. People will panic. NHS will be obliged to examine/test the panickers.... Will be chaos

Lweji · 11/10/2014 23:50

Looking at the figures, Ebola is not actually out of control.

It hasn't expanded to other vulnerable African countries. The cases that emerged elsewhere seem to have been largely stamped out.

I have become cautiously optimistic, whereas I was worried at some point that it would really spread quickly to other African countries.

As for the UK, is just as likely to receive cases as any other country. Every country should be prepared for that possibility.

Lweji · 11/10/2014 23:52

They USED to say it was very very unlikely to come to the uk..... Now it's 'likely'..... It will come, I'm sure, and we won't be able to contain it

Have a grip.
It has always been said that it won't take hold in the uk. People may go in, but not necessarily start an epidemic.

Countries with much less resources and much less educated people have been able to contain the damn thing, FFS.

Suzannewithaplan · 12/10/2014 01:43

I think it sounds reasonable to expect a handful of cases too, but it is not remotely reasonable to expect chaos

Planetwaves · 12/10/2014 11:21

Sky news now reporting a secondary case in Texas :(

Only1scoop · 12/10/2014 11:26

Due to troops and all the extra aid worker support from GB it is highly likely that we will sadly have more cases to treat here in the Uk.

Thank goodness though....they have a chance of survival if treated here.

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 12/10/2014 11:45

BBC have the same story. It's one of the healthcare workers that treated him. It's not clear at what point they treated him though.

I don't know whether it's one of the 10 close contacts that were considered high risk or one of the wider ones.

LittleBairn · 12/10/2014 11:49

I'm suprised that its a health care worker, his family were in close quarters with him and were caring for him whilst he was sick.

Suzannewithaplan · 12/10/2014 11:50

Surely the chance of survival here is significantly higher than in a third world country already overwhelmed by an out of control epidemic.

I think people are reading the phrase 'ebola cases in the uk' and imagining a scenario transplanted straight from the heart of the Sierra Leone epidemic.
Understandable knee jerk response but when you consider it rationally not really logical ?

HarveySchlumpfenburger · 12/10/2014 12:19

I think people are also forgetting that the NHS disaster plan as a matter of course. There's plans for events like this and worse that will have existed long before this Ebola outbreak. They will be looked at again wit this outbreak specifically in mind.

There's no reason to think that an outbreak here won't be contained in the same way that every other outbreak over the past 40 years has been. The combination of factors that exist in the countries involved and has led to it spreading out of control over there just don't exist in this country.

Molotov · 12/10/2014 18:09

I've just caught up on today's news. I sincerely hope that all secondary cases are successfully isolated; that no further ones develop and that the virus is bought under control in W.Africa.

From the BBC I've also read about a planned NHS strike for Monday: we NEED the NHS.

ALL COUNTRIES SHOULD AIM TOWARDS HAVING AND SUPPORTING THEIR OWN NHS.

If any one government cared enough about their own people, they would have an NHS.

Pay NHS staff what they deserve (which is a sum that demonstrates a reward for their hard work). Without health workers, we're fucked. And this Ebola crisis is demonstrating that fact.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 12/10/2014 19:21

The nhs is another reason why we are in a really good position to deal with this. We don't have to worry about whether or not we have insurance coverage when we see a doctor. This means people don't need to hold back if they think they may have been exposed and talk themselves into it's probably only a cold if they have early symptoms. I agree we really need to value our nhs workers - they are frontline.

britishbakeoffblues · 12/10/2014 23:37

I also think the social climate here is totally different from the countries where Ebola has spread.
Those people have hidden the evidence and tried to carry on.
Look at swine flu - it was almost a badge of honour to a lot of people.
People who have nothing better to do and don't have Ebola will be queuing up to get tested and claim they have it. yes, I believe people really are that utterly stupid