Fairymum- even the decline of the diseases is not necessarily linked to vaccination. The mortality rate from diptheria had declined by 50% before widespread use of the vaccine. Think of scarlet fever- at the beginning of this century it was a disease that was feared but not now, and that has happened without vaccination (although no douvbt had a vaccination been developed we would have been told it was due to this). Polio- yes the vaccine probably has had more to do with erradication in places like the UK- but even polio is a bit odd as although its been around for centuries epidemics didn't occur until recently. The ecology of infectious disease is complex. Its also an interesting one as the pro vaccinators in the USA look on with horror at the UK use of oral poilio vaccine (as it has been the only cause of paralytic polio in places like the UK recently), whilst the UK pro vaccinators think the use of killed polio vaccine in the States to be dangerous (as it apparently isn't as effective). i do have to question the sense of vaccinating everyone against a disease that they have a zero chance of contracting whilst they remain in the UK or US. (i think there is a reasonable arguement for using polio as a travellers vaccine).
What would be the effects of not vaccinating? Well I;m not anti-vaccination. I'm anti MASS vaccination which is a different kettle of fish. I think there are good arguments for the majority of children receiving tetanus (but thimerosil free please and why not wait until they can walk and are likely to get tetanus type injuries), for children in daycare under the age of 18 months to recieve hib- especially if they haven't been breast fed for very long, for teenagers to receive meningitis C and for teenage girls to receieve rubella (if they havent had it). Others- not so sure about the risk/benefit ratio it become murlier to my eyes.
You don't need to be medically trained to understand the arguments. The majority of drs do not know very much about vaccination. Doctors tend to be people who are good at retaining a lot of information, but they are not necessarily good at weighing up arguments. (I've taught doctors). Read the vaccine guide and you will know more about the arguments than the average GP, especially if you follow up the references it provides. Its a very good tool for really weighing up the arguments.
What would be the effects on not vaccinatiing? Well the incidence of some of the diseases would rise (probably hib, certainly measles and mumps, probably men C- although maybe men B would drop) tetanus- although probably only very slightly providng there was good wound care and the option of vaccination for suspicious wounds. It would also be interesting though to see what effect it would have on the numbers of cases of babies with measles (should be less after a generation as mothers will once again have immunity to confer on their children). And of course numbers of cases of autism, ADHD, diabetes, eczema, asthma etc etc etc And that's never going to happen anyway.
Donnie- there are ways round the US system. IN Claifornia for example its easy - you can get a "philosophical exemption" other states its failr easy to get a medical exemption.
Aloha- friends child had the classic runny nose and rash etc, DS1 had a very typical rash- came down with it exactly the right number of days after exposure (bfed ds2 didn't get it).