Bird Flu - please help me get this into perspective!

[Octobernow]

I'm normally a rational person who reads up about issues and makes an informed decision. But I admit I'm in a total panic about the prospect of Bird Flu wiping out our children.

I've read all I can and I know what all the experts are saying. I know flu epidemics happen naturally every few decades and that even now, 12,500 each year die from flu anyway. There are as yet no vaccines and, essentially, what will be will be.

But this time I can't seem to get a grip on my feelings about it. I want to run away and wrap my children up and live without ever coming into contact with another living soul (depending on broadband penetration into the outer hebrides, of course)

This is so not like me. Does anyone else feel like this? There seems to be nothing we can do about it until it turns up and not much even then. I'd love to hear some sensible opinions about where bird flu fits in to the general picture of risks we take every day.

bird flu, pah, i'm not a bird, so not worried.

let me go find some stats, how many do they think wil ldie of bird flu if it does mutate?

I'm with misdee - it's BIRD flu. Very bad news for chickens.

Actually I normally don't worry about anything, but I'm slightly concerned about ds getting bird flu. I put it down to recently becoming a mother. Actually, although the mortality is quite high with it, as far as I remember from the outbreak in the far East it didn't spread person-to-person all that easily (or at least not that many people caught it compared to an ordinary flu), so there's probably no more to worry about than any other disease.

I should probably be more concerned about a high tide with a following wind topping the Thames Barrier and flooding us as that seems to be almost inevitable in the next few years.

Just for a reality check, these are some statistics on road accidents in the uk

'3,508 people were killed on Britain?s roads in 2003, 2 per cent more than in 2002. The number of people seriously injured fell to 33,707, 6 per cent lower than in 2002. Total casualties in 2003 were 290,607, 4 percent fewer than in 2002;'

Are you worried about getting into the car tomorrow, fearful that you will get injured?

I heared the expert on TV today. Upper limit that he was talking babout was 5 times the normal level. Most of us are unaware of the normal level.

Do you know anyone who smokes? they have a one in 3 chance of dying.

yum, just roasted and eaten the lovely free-ranger I got for less than £4 - long live bird flu paranoia, cheap meat for all!

Wow, I should start smoking then! I'm pretty sure we all have a 100% chance of dying, one way or another, eventually ...

Seriously, I'm a bit worried about this, but there's little I can do. It's funny how much the 1918 flu epidemic has come back into public awareness of late ... maybe because of HIV and otehr disease fears?

its all about 'ifs' I wouldn't sweat it if I were you IF your auntie had balls she's be your uncle

You can really only get it by hanging around with infected birds. Unless you do this I think you can sleep easily. Chickens should be nervous though.

Oh, I read some stuff today too and it totally freaked me out.
I had horrible thoughts of DS3 getting it.
God it scares the shit out of me!

I'm the type of person that always thinks the worst so I'm probably not the best person for this thread.

this is what I need, some intelligent cynicism - thanks!

I paid no attention to it during the news reports over the past three years, strictly for the birds etc, but then I read of an 11yr old girl dying of it, and her mother becoming infected and dying after sitting at her bedside. Maybe it's that that has got to me.

It's fine now, because you can only get it from birds, but there is a real risk of it recombining with human flu and becoming infectious from person to person, at which point there will be real danger. I think it's pretty worrying to be honest. The best thing today was the idea that it won't be this winter, which at least gives them time to stockpile Tamiflu and maybe develop a vaccine. I feel like you Octobernow- I am usually the first person to dismiss health scaremongering but I do think this is a real concern.

But aloha...if and as the experts say WHEN it mutates we could all at risk.

They seems to think it will, at some point, mutate.

oh, what a load of media hype.

As long as the first outbreak isn't in this country then they've got a chance to develop a vaccine - they can't do it yet because they don't know what the virus will be.

All the experts seem to be saying 'it isn't another 1918, medicine has come a long way'.

And do you know anyone who's died of flu? And that is with a background level of 12000 a year. So maybe 50000 isn't that scary.

Millennium bug anyone?
Just can't be bothered to worry about this tbh.

BSE?
Salomonella and eggs?

Yes, tamum, there is definitely more than "Daily Mailism' going on. I always mistrust Government assurances about health concerns so if even they are saying 750,000 people in the Uk could be killed by it...

Oh, there I go again. I really am not like this normally.

on Andrew Marr this morning they said that 12,000 people die per year of ordinary flu - are you scared of that?

LTH - what the experts actually say is when it mutates it could become quite infectious but a lot less dangerous - ie lots of people may get it but not many will die. Bit like normal flu really.

Can't compare it to a computer virus panic, aloha. Flu pandemics recur naturally and do kill swathes of people. I do know of someone who died of flu in the 20's in my family. It could be that's why I'm so abnormally upset this time.

I think its one to watch but I'm not too worried yet

We always keep a stock of canned goods/candles/torches/water/primis stove etc in our garage anyway. Just in case

We've been so appauled at how badly govts seem to have handled national emergencies that we've kept emergency rations for some time now!

I like to think that we;re just mad and won't ever need it but ya never know

Even if the mutated virus starts in the Far East as they predict, chances are someone will hop on a plane and spread the disease in the West, so no chance to develop the vaccine in time. Sorry but I agree with tamum (who is after all a scientist!!)and am worried about this. I'm with you, Octobernow - if it comes to the UK, I would if it were possible be staying indoors with my children until it's over!! And then by next year they will have developed a vaccine (although would it be available to everyone??)

but flu mutates every year anyway and, as pointed out, kills about 12,000 a year in UK.

My father lost 4 of his best friends while he was on honeymoon in the late 50's when there was a Spanish flu epidemic in Aberdeen.

They were married on teh Saturday and by the time they returned a week later 4 of his friends (including his best man) were dead. They were in their mid 20's and were part of a mountineering and hill climbing group - really fit young men!

Yes, lots of people die of the 'flu currently. But they are mostly very old people, (sometimes) babies, or people who are otherwise immunocompromised (HIV, transplant patients, diabetics, etc). The 'flu doesn't generally kill young healthy people. But the 1918 'flu did, and people are worried that this one will, too.