Bird Flu - please help me get this into perspective!

[Octobernow]

I'm normally a rational person who reads up about issues and makes an informed decision. But I admit I'm in a total panic about the prospect of Bird Flu wiping out our children.

I've read all I can and I know what all the experts are saying. I know flu epidemics happen naturally every few decades and that even now, 12,500 each year die from flu anyway. There are as yet no vaccines and, essentially, what will be will be.

But this time I can't seem to get a grip on my feelings about it. I want to run away and wrap my children up and live without ever coming into contact with another living soul (depending on broadband penetration into the outer hebrides, of course)

This is so not like me. Does anyone else feel like this? There seems to be nothing we can do about it until it turns up and not much even then. I'd love to hear some sensible opinions about where bird flu fits in to the general picture of risks we take every day.

But of the 118 or so people who have been infected by it already ( those hanging out in close quaters with birds) 60 have died. More than 50% that is worrying isnt it.

Car accidents not comparable in my opinion, you have some control over your potential to be injured in an accident i.e not speeding, wearing seatbelts, road rules etc.

Fear of bird flu because we dont have any means of defence against it really.

But that 12000 does not usually include young healthy adults/children, but mainly the elderly/very young or immuno-compromised. That is why this is more scary as they are suggesting that everyone would be fair game. I think it is dangerous to be too complacent (although as we can do nothing, it is probably easier to sleep at night if you are).

sorry cross posts NQC!

There's a really good non-scaremongery FAQ via the BBC which has helped calm me down quite a bit.

I think the important bits are:

"Experts say people in the UK are at "very low risk" of developing the disease at present.

But the Health Protection Agency estimates that if a flu outbreak did reach the UK around a quarter of the population could be affected, with possibly 50,000 deaths." (bear in mind that our population is 60 million roughly and "normal" flu deaths is around 12,000 per year - it didn't seem the armageddon figure I was expecting and I'm guessing this is their "worse case scenario" figure so they can prepare adequately).

The other main thing I got out of the FAQ was that the risk of this flu epidemic thing is no worse than it was last year, or the year before, or the year before that... it's just that they've increased their KNOWLEDGE of how flu works and want to make sure that systems are in place on the basis of that knowledge. The risk hasn't changed - our understanding of that risk has.

It is unlikelt that the mutated strain will arrive in the UK this winter. It is very unlikley that the mutated strain (when it happens) will arrive in the UK as a first port of call. It is far more likely that it will happen in the far East....historicaly this is where it tends to happen because of animal husbandry tecniques in that part of the world.

This will give more time to develop a vaccine.

12,000 people die of flu in the UK each eyear....no of us loose sleep over that . 5 timea that (one of the worse scenarios projected) is bad. However it is less than half the deaths in the UK attributed to smoking in a year. And no-one is panicing about that ?

People can choose whether or not to smoke, though, so I don't feel scared of that, esp not for my children, yet. I agree that the chance of developing a vaccine looks better than it did.

I just wish it wasn't the lead item in every news bulletin and newspaper.

Perhaps I should kill this thread as I really don't want to be a scaremonger.

I guess we don't have to die of flu for it to affect us. If 1/4 of the population (as suggested in another post earlier) get it at some point that would put sever strain on both the medical services, and the normal funtioning of the country - so we would all be in for a tough winter (whenever it happens).

Not sure we as individuals can do anything to stop it though - maybe wear face masks ? Can't imagine consistenetnly getting kids to do that.

DS1's ex childminder gave up childminding to go into free range chickens almost a year ago - must be a scary and worrying time for her.

oops - should learn to preview !

WHO faq

NQC,

Re your comment:-
"It's funny how much the 1918 flu epidemic has come back into public awareness of late ... maybe because of HIV and otehr disease fears?"

The Spanish flu outbreak was also in the news recently because the scientists at the Diseases Control Centre in Atlanta remade this particular virus to study it. I sincerely hope that never escapes the confines of the negative pressure environment in which its held.

If this strain of avian influenza did mutute with a human strain of influenza then I would wonder how on earth the NHS are going to cope.

The WHO faq worried me a bit. So, in the event of a pandemic, will society break down? Will people stay at home? Will there be a lack of law enforcement as WHO mentions? I know this is worst case scenario but I can't help wondering. It doesn't seem as enough has been done in asia to eradicate it from birds, judging from an article in last Saturday's Guardian.

How can you stay at home though? The 1918 pandemic lasted 2 years on and off... and I can only assume that the grocery delivery people will also be wanting to stay at home! I understand the sentiment, but I'm just not sure it's practical (or even desirable) to cut off your family from civilisation for 2 years...

this does scare me a little, but more in a 'I'll keep in touch with this one' sort of way.

The advice I have read so far is to keep people with the flu indoors (if there was bird flu in this country it would need to meet and mutate with the flu virus to be the biggest risk); wash hands frequently; use antibac spray on surfaces etc; see Dr if flu doesn't clear or secondary infection seems evident... basically all the normal viral control methods really. I'm also keeping a very careful eye on how much fruit the boys are eating for their immune systems, and doing all the stuff like getting excercise, not over heating the house- basically making them as strong as I can. Wise at this time of year anyway.

I think its likely that if bird flu mutates to person to person, it will also become a less deadly strain.

the only thing bird flu has crystallised is that I will deffo be breastfeeding my new baby in May!

new scientist bird flu info . they say bird flu had a 70% mortality rate in the first 70 people it is known to have infected.

Flus are endemic to the bird population, swine, people, etc. Culling any of these isn't going to change anything. Bloody pointless, especially b/c viruses naturally attenuate w/time. Tinkering w/nature just protracts things.

No, this does not frighten me. If it gets in, it will NOT be the first avian flu strain that has managed to mix w/a human strain - at least two of these did this in the 1950s and 60s. There's honestly no way to avoid it.

Don't feed wildlife. That's a good policy in general, b/c it keeps wildlife from becoming dependent on people for food.

yes good advice expat. I did have to stop dd1 from feeding seagulls with chips yesterday

Washing hands is SO important, so is covering the mouth and nose when sneezing or coughing, particularly with a piece of disposable paper - sneezing and coughing are the primary sources flu is transmitted, as well as hand to mouth.

Anybody sent for antiviral drugs? - pondering investing savings in Tamiflu. Does that seem daft?

I pride myself on not being paranoid, but I did find myself eyeing No More Germs handwash in boots rather than the liquid soap version...

A girl in Vietnam has already had a strain of flu resistant to Tamiflu.

tamiflu resistant flu

What would be nice is if a vaccine could be developed for the birds first, then the people. Chickens don't have such a complex genetic structure as people.

ANY soap will work. Flu is a virus, so the anti-bacterial stuff doesn't really do much against a virus. Just plain old soap and warm water is the ticket. Soap the ENTIRE hand, front and back and dry with a clean hand towel or air. I always carry a clean muslin cloth, bandana, etc. in case we're in a loo that has those horrid cloth towels as a means of drying hands.

Use a towel to go back out the door, too, b/c a lot of folks just splash water on their hands and don't actually wash them.

I was going to buy some chickens in the spring

goes againt all the adverts on TV that suggest you take their medicine and you can still go to work even with a bad does of flu.

The culture seems to be go to work/school and spread it all around - rather than stay at home and get better.