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Help me make sense of MMR - hype or theory

941 replies

felicity10 · 17/02/2011 20:53

OK, so I've been through a few pages of previous posts, I must be missing something because I can't make sense of it!

DD is 1 and I've had a letter about the vacs from the GP. I've heard about the MMR in the news few years ago and about the link to autism, but I just would really value your views.

Single vacs with no mumps or the MMR? Confused Can anyone point me in the direction of key MMR issues?

I just don't want to get to the gp's and then feel like I am getting bullied into having the mmr - it is normally very no nonsense nurses who barely speak english, so will be unlikely to give me a clear answer as to any risks.

I am amazed that we have this lack of clarity in the UK.

Many thanks in advance!

OP posts:
Piggyleroux · 22/02/2011 12:32

I will never vaccinate. You gave to rely on your Childs immune system to create the antibodies needed to provide protection from certain diseases and there is no guarantee that this will be the case anyhow. It's not the vaccine that protects it's your childs immune response.

My ds is not vaccinated because his cousin almost died after her DTP shot. The medical profession would not admit that the vaccine caused the near fatal reaction.

Pharmaceutical companies make billions from vaccines because no one ever questions them and if you do you are mad or irresponsible. The real figure of how many kids are vaccine damaged is not known because the medical establishment will never admit it.

If you are told a lie long enough you start to believe it.

seeker · 22/02/2011 19:09

So if I search, I will find evidence that the Wakefield research has been replicated?

Im happy to search - it's just that I don;t think I have ever seem that particular research.

bubbleymummy · 22/02/2011 19:37

Ok - just came across something interesting...If you look at the number of cases of measles and the number of deaths on the HPA website - the mortality rate was 0.02% BEFORE the vaccine was introduced. That's the same as swine flu....and that was 50 years ago. It's even less now! I just found that fascinating.....any thoughts? :)

silverfrog · 23/02/2011 11:57

that is interesting, bubbley.

I do find it fascinating how illnesses are perceived.

Leonie mentioned earlier about hr relatives' views on chicken pox.

dd1 had the misfortune to come down with chicken pox while we were in the states - the reactions were huge

we were seen in isolation at the hospital (had to see a doc, as wanted it documented when she broke out in spots, so we could fly home). the doctor had no clue what the quarantine period was, nor incubation for dd2, and we were treated as though she had a particularly virulent strain of the plague.

it was all rather surreal, tbh.

bubbleymummy · 23/02/2011 20:21

Yes silverfrog, it really does seem to be about how we perceive an illness. Does it start to seem more dangerous because there is a vaccine available iykwim? Most people I know weren't worried about swine flu and wouldn't have even considered the vaccine (I know some people in at risk categories who did though) yet if you suggested not vaccinating against measles to any of them they would be horrified. I wonder why that is? Do people assume that it is more dangerous than swine flu without actually looking at figures?

seeker · 23/02/2011 23:44

It can have to opposite effect too - I am very old and the first generation to be vassinated against polio. My mother still talks about how terrified she was of polio when my older brothers were little and the relief she felt that there was a vaccine by the time I came along. Polio is very rare worldwide now and really not an illness that anyone thinks about much. But my mother's generation still remember people being killed or severely disabled by it.

bubbleymummy · 24/02/2011 20:37

Seeker, it's been mentioned on another thread (chickenpox one maybe) that the way in which polio cases were reported was changed in the 1950s. If you look at the figures on the HPA website here You can see that there was a big decrease from the end of the 1950s but how much was due to the vaccine (introduced in 1956) and how much was due to the change in the method of reporting. Bear in mind also that we now know that the live vaccine can actually cause polio outbreaks!

seeker · 24/02/2011 23:11

Really? I thought, for example, that there had been no polio in Europe since 2002.

I honestly don;t think (and I am a naturally sceptical person) (and one who thinks vaccinating against chicken pox is bonkers) that the practical eradication of polio in the developed world and the massive reduction of the disease in the developing world since the introduction of vaccination can be entirely due to changes in reporting protocols!

bubbleymummy · 24/02/2011 23:47

Oh goodness no! :) I don't think it is ALL due to reporting changes. I just think that we can't attribute the dramatic decline in polio entirely to the vaccine as a lot of people would like us to. It may very well have actually played quite a small part alongside other factors and it was just that the change in reporting method happened to coincide with the introduction of the vaccine - making the vaccine look more impressive.

seeker · 25/02/2011 00:00

What other factors? Better public hygiene I suppose.

bubbleymummy · 25/02/2011 00:15

Well yes, better sanitation, nutrition, general living conditions - not as crowded etc. Things that are probably still not that improved in the parts of India and Africa where it is still quite prevalent - although I'm sure the situation isn't helped by them still using the OPV (live) vaccine because it's cheaper :(

seeker · 25/02/2011 08:50

I don't think it's just because it's cheaper - the live vaccine withstands heat better as well.

There are only a couple of areas where polio is still a significant problem - and the rates are coming down in those areas too.

And smallpox has been completely irradicated worldwide - surely you agree that's a good thing to have come out of vacination?

ScramVonChubby · 25/02/2011 11:36

Of course Seeker.

I was thinking about this a little last night (becuase I have an essay to do and anything is more interesting than this one Wink)

I see it as this: none of the research that ahs been done is sensitive or designed o pick up what would if it exists be tiny subgroups. Research always has margin or error and statistical significane and this could easily slip through that. I am not anti vaccine, or even anti MMR: I do think for most it is safe.

But making decisions on a grand scale is for the Government and based on that research. parents however make decisions for their own kids absed on a very different set of data. if I knew what I know now, would I give ds1 the MMR seeing as he does have the characteristics that woudl fall with the subgroup- a parent with autoimmune issues (psoriasis, me); bowel issues; a (medically verified) history of intolerances.
No, I probably would not. I don't think MMR did cause his ASD, but I equally beleive he has far mroe susceptibility to environmental factors than your average kid.

Macro-Micro decision making.

rightpissedoff · 27/02/2011 00:32

"Bear in mind also that we now know that the live vaccine can actually cause polio outbreaks!"

Am back, briefly -- yes there's a case just now in Malaysia of paralytic polio, the first for three years. It happened in the middle of a vaccination campaign. She hadn't been vaccinated yet. Local health officials happily admitted: this is something that happens when you have a vaccination campaign with OPV in areas of poor sanitation.

Also US health officials puzzled by 21,000 children catching whooping cough despite mandatory vaccination.

These are on reuters, associated press etc.

rightpissedoff · 27/02/2011 00:44

"I see it as this: none of the research that ahs been done is sensitive or designed o pick up what would if it exists be tiny subgroups."

The problem is this: we are continually being told you can't prove a negative. However in the same breath we are told : there is NO such thing as regressive autism triggered by MMR. To claim this you are basically claiming to have proven a negative. "We don't know what it is, but we know it's not MMR."

Even if you accept the deeply flawed epidemiological studies "demonstrating" that there is no link (which I don't) then the balance of evidence is on the side of the possibility that MMR can trigger regressive autism in a small group. There is too much evidence of this happening.

However for the pro-vax lobby it is impossible, absolutely impossible, to accept that even one case of regressive autism has been triggered by MMR. Impossible. Because if one, why not two? Why not ten? Why not a thousand? Every case would have to be considered on its merits. This is not desirable in any way for the pro-vaccination lobby.

Indeed it's worse than not desirable. Imagine if one case was conceded. Imagine if AW had not been struck off. The case of MMR-autism would be given credibility.

This would be politically and financially absolutely cataclysmic for governments and the pharmaceutical company. Also I do accept, I have to accept, I know people in the industry -- that the pro-vaccination lobby is not motivated entirely by venality. There are people of very good faith who believe that if the MMR story was given any credibility at all it would be a public health catastrophe.

It is for these reasons that AW had to be struck off. It didn't matter what the hearing was told: there was no way he wasn't going down. They tried hard: they delayed it, they closed it to the public, the date of judgment was set back several times. But they had to do what they did. They simply could not and cannot concede the possibility of one single case of regressive autism triggered by MMR.

Think of that the next time someone says: you can't prove a negative. Well STOP claiming to have done so then.

rightpissedoff · 27/02/2011 00:46

"..for governments and the pharmaceutical company..."

should read "companies" of course

StataLover · 27/02/2011 14:58

There is no link between MMR and autism. Wakefield's studies were falsified.

In 1999, Brent Taylor and co-workers examined the relationship between receipt of MMR and development of autism in an excellent, well-controlled study. Taylor examined the records of 498 children with autism or autism-like disorder. Cases were identified by registers from the North Thames region of England before and after the MMR vaccine was introduced into the United Kingdom in 1988. Taylor then examined the incidence and age at diagnosis of autism in vaccinated and unvaccinated children. He found that:
The percentage of children vaccinated was the same in children with autism as in other children in the North Thames region
No difference in the age of diagnosis of autism was found in vaccinated and unvaccinated children The onset of symptoms of autism did not occur within two, four, or six months of receiving the MMR vaccine.

One of the best studies was performed by Madsen and colleagues in Denmark between 1991 and 1998 and reported in the New England Journal of Medicine. The study included 537,303 children representing 2,129,864 person-years of study. Approximately 82 percent of children had received the MMR vaccine. The group of children was selected from the Danish Civil Registration System, vaccination status was obtained from the Danish National Board of Health, and children with autism were identified from the Danish Central Register. The risk of autism in the group of vaccinated children was the same as that in unvaccinated children. Furthermore, there was no association between the age at the time of vaccination, the time since vaccination, or the date of vaccination and the development of autism.
Subsequent studies have corroborated the findings that the MMR vaccine does not cause autism.

rightpissedoff · 28/02/2011 07:45

There is no link? Prove it. You can't. So stop saying it.

That study you're talking about is rubbish.

That's the one with the average age of vaccination app 15 - 18 months and average age of diagnosis 5 yrs or just over, can't quite remember -- I read this paper a very long time ago.

So at the end of the study there was a cohort of children vaccinated and not diagnosed autistic simply because they didn't have time to be diagnosed within the framework of the study.

So in the study they count as vaccinated and not autistic -- even though they might well be autistic, we just don't know. Eh voila! we have our made up proof that MMR doesn't trigger autism.

They've got some bloody good statisticians on their side, I'll give them that.

rightpissedoff · 28/02/2011 07:48

Anyway stata you were talking about studies being falsified?

To be fair I think we should call the Madsen study accidentally on purpose deeply misleading, rather than actually falsified.

StataLover · 28/02/2011 08:25

THere is no evidence that the Marsden study is rigged or misleading. Having bloody good statisticians is a good thing for a study as it helps you NOT mislead and actually understand the complex relationships and probabilities.

Some more studies in addition to the two above showing no link between autism and mmr. The body of evidence is that there is no link. You may believe it, it doesn't make it true.

Dales L, Hammer SJ, Smith NJ. Time Trends in Autism and in MMR Immunization Coverage in California. JAMA 2001; 285:1183-1185.

DeStefano, R, Bhasin, TK, et. Al. Age at First Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccination in Children With Autism and School-Matched Control Subjects: A Population-Based Study in Metropolitan Atlanta. Pediatrics 2004:113:259-266.

Deykin EY, MacMahon B. Viral exposure and autism. Am J Epidemiol 1979;109:628-638.

Farrington CP, Miller E, Taylor B. MMR and Autism: Further Evidence Against A Causal Association. Vaccine 2001; 19:3632-3635.

Kaye JA, Melero-Montes M, Jick H. Mumps, Measles, and Rubella Vaccine and the Incidence of Autism Recorded by General Practitioners: A Time Trend Analysis. BMJ 2001; 322:460-463.

Peltola H, Patja, A, et. Al. No Evidence for Measles, Mumps, and Rubella Vaccine-Associated Inflammatory Bowel Disease or Autism in a 14-Year Prospective Study. Lancet 1998; 351:1327-1328.

Taylor B, Miller E, Farrington P, et al. Autism and Measles, Mumps, and Rubella Vaccine: No Epidemiologic Evidence for A Causal Association. Lancet 1999; 353:2026-2029.

Taylor B, Miller E, Lingam, et al. Measles, Mumps, and Rubella Vaccination and Bowel Problems or Developmental Regression in Children with Autism: A Population Study. BMJ 2002; 324:393-396.

rightpissedoff · 28/02/2011 08:48

I just told you what the problem is stata. Hmm

Here is is again (I wonder if my bolding will work): A lot of children that could be diagnosed autistic are counted as non-autistic.

Do you understand why that is a problem, or do you not understand why that is a problem?

Do you see? They are saying there is no difference between vaccinated/unvaccinated and autistic/non-autistic. But do you see? They've put a lot of children in the wrong group! That means they can't tell if there's no difference at all! In fact there might be quite a big difference! BUT THEY CAN'T TELL!!!!!!!!!!

Get it yet?

"The body of evidence is that there is no link." What do you mean by that? The sentence is a conflation of :

"It's proved that there is no link"

And "The body of evidence shows that there probably is no link."

Proof is proof: it's not "the weight of evidence". You need to decide what you're saying.

If you are saying there is no link you are saying there is not a single regressive case of autism out of the thousands claimed, that all those mothers and many of their consultants are lying or mistaken, that many specialists are lying or mistaken, and that direct temporary, videographic, clinical and subclinical evidence are all part of that big lie.

How do you know that? When you don't know the children or the mothers or their consultants or have seen their medical records? How do you know Stata? By looking at a graph?

You don't know, and the probability is that some of them are right. Even if it's a small group that doesn't show up on a large epidemiological study.

All those other studies look like epi studies too, probably retrogressive. Bet they're put together with similar flaws. I've read too many in my time to take them seriously any more. But if you want to link or copy and paste them here I'm happy to share an analysis. Most of them are really old anyway.

rightpissedoff · 28/02/2011 08:49

I just told you what the problem is stata. Hmm

Here is is again (I wonder if my bolding will work): A lot of children that could be diagnosed autistic are counted as non-autistic.

Do you understand why that is a problem, or do you not understand why that is a problem?

Do you see? They are saying there is no difference between vaccinated/unvaccinated and autistic/non-autistic. But do you see? They've put a lot of children in the wrong group! That means they can't tell if there's no difference at all! In fact there might be quite a big difference! BUT THEY CAN'T TELL!!!!!!!!!!

Get it yet?

"The body of evidence is that there is no link." What do you mean by that? The sentence is a conflation of :

"It's proved that there is no link"

And "The body of evidence shows that there probably is no link."

Proof is proof: it's not "the weight of evidence". You need to decide what you're saying.

If you are saying there is no link you are saying there is not a single regressive case of autism out of the thousands claimed, that all those mothers and many of their consultants are lying or mistaken, that many specialists are lying or mistaken, and that direct temporary, videographic, clinical and subclinical evidence are all part of that big lie.

How do you know that? When you don't know the children or the mothers or their consultants or have seen their medical records? How do you know Stata? By looking at a graph?

You don't know, and the probability is that some of them are right. Even if it's a small group that doesn't show up on a large epidemiological study.

All those other studies look like epi studies too, probably retrogressive. Bet they're put together with similar flaws. I've read too many in my time to take them seriously any more. But if you want to link or copy and paste them here I'm happy to share an analysis. Most of them are really old anyway.

rightpissedoff · 28/02/2011 08:59

I recognise the 1999 just by the title. Tis bolleaux.

What it does it, it says the autism boom started before mmr was introduced.

How did they establish this? They looked at how old people with autism were and if they were over a certain age, they decided they were too old to have been vaccinated. Thus they decided the autism wasn't due to MMR.

So, if MMR was introduced in 1988 for children of 18mths, and say the study was done in 1998. That meant that any autistic children over the age of eleven and a half couldn't have been affected by MMR because they couldn't have had MMR.

But soft! some information tiptoes our way. Why, it is the news that in 1994 3.2 million children between the ages of 5 and 16 were vaccinated in a catch up campaign ahead of a large batch of vaccine running out of its use-by date a feared measles outbreak.

That means you could have been born in 1978 and had the MMR. That means that in 1998 you could be aged 20 and autistic and have been affected by MMR.

Whyever did they leave this out of their calculations? What an astonished mistake to have made for such accomplished statisticians. Do you know, I think they might have done that on purpose too.

StataLover · 28/02/2011 14:23

There's no conspiracy. That's just medical denialism.

Study after study shows no evidence of a link. That means that in all probability there isn't one. In fact, I'm not aware of any study published in a peer reviewed journal which has demonstrated a link.

if you reject scientific evidence as the basis for your own decision making, that's fine. You can rely on intuition, voo-doo, mumbo-jumbo, whatever floats your boat. But please at least be honest that you're making it all up as you go along.

silverfrog · 28/02/2011 18:10

Stata: I am stil unsure as to what part of "Wakefield et al never said that mmr causes autism" you do not understand.

It has NEVER been said that mmr: a) causes autism or b) is responsible for the rise in autism.

You blithely claim that there is no evidence of a link between vaccines and autism. Maybe you should get on to the Special Masters who have recognised in an Omnibus case that vaccines played a role in Hannah Poling developing symtoms of autism and tell them that they are wrong.

You should quickly get on to the experts at the Cochrane Review and tell them that they are mistaken too!



The fact is that there is a building body of evidence that links vaccines and autism. No doubt if funding was not cut off and researchers weren't witchunted for investigating MMR, there would be even more evidence.



There are peer reviewed studies, clinical evidence and huge amounts of anecdotal evidence. Also there is the fact that there is a rise in ASD that we have no other credible explanation for. A rise in ASD cases, that in the US in particular, follows the rise in the number of vaccines given.

Then there is the fact that some autistic children's condition improves when they follow treatments that target vaccine damage. 

Currently there is a doctor (Dr Yazbak) who is trying to find one single child who presents a case of regressive autism with autistic enterocolitis who is unvaccinated, to date he has not found a single case.



So far the government and the medical establishment are relying on epidemiological studies to demonstrate that MMR does not trigger autism in susceptible children. All of the studies produced so far have been criticised for either serious problems of conflict of interest and/or methodological flaws that render the study useless. The much touted Taylor study, the Danish study and Fombonne's studies are all high profile examples of this. All these studies were declared as definitive yet they are all now discredited.

There comes a time when one is obliged to ask if these experts are incompetent since they seem curiously unable to design an unflawed study (unlikely) or if they are in fact extemely competent at manipulating statistics to achieve results that suit their own ends.



The famous 2005 Cochrane Report only examined 31 studies out of a roughly 5000 that were submitted. The Review has been accused of discarding papers that that show MMR in a bad light. BTW the Report did not examine Dr Wakefield's work, which still stands unchallanged and which so far no-one has discredited. Hence no doubt the need for the extensive smear campaign to try and ruin Dr Wakefield's reputation.



There is evidence that the safety of MMR warrants further investigation, yet that government keeps trying to draw a line under the entire subject.

The government also seems curiously unwilling to examine children who are suspected of being damaged by MMR and to perform a study which directly replicates Dr Wakefield's. All this just doesn't look good and it certainly doesn't inspire confidence.



Wakefield's work has, of course been replicated - in small scale studies, around the world. But you, ad others, will no doubt continue to look the other way, because you do not like what it says and the implications of this.