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General election 2024

5th seat for Reform

84 replies

equisetum · 05/07/2024 17:28

Excellent

OP posts:
equisetum · 06/07/2024 14:07

TwigletsAndRadishes · 06/07/2024 14:05

But in 2015 we hadn't yet had a referendum. And in 2019 Brexit was not yet delivered.

UKIP (latterly the Brexit Party) was essentially a single issue party, a bit like the SNP. Once that issue was achieved there was no further use for it and people could go about voting either Tory or Labour as they saw fit.

And yet we have Reform, which got over 4 million votes, which is 14% of the vote share. When you consider that Labour managed to win with only 34% I don't think it's wise to write Reform off as insignificant.

Well said.

OP posts:
CovertPiggery · 06/07/2024 14:08

IfImOnFire · 06/07/2024 13:10

UKIP got just under 4 million votes (one seat) in 2015. I guess Johnson scooped up those votes in 2019 to 'get Brexit done' and given his failure to do so, those same votes have gone to Reform.

I don't know that Reform are a new or growing threat. Their vote count and share hasn't increased since those 2015 results. It got them more seats this time around but in terms of numbers, it seems to have stayed the same

This, most of them will swing back and forth between Reform and the Conservatives.

equisetum · 06/07/2024 14:11

CovertPiggery · 06/07/2024 14:08

This, most of them will swing back and forth between Reform and the Conservatives.

If that's the case, then Labour will be losing a shed load of votes too. To many who voted Labour, it was purely to get shot of the Tories.

OP posts:
CovertPiggery · 06/07/2024 14:15

equisetum · 06/07/2024 14:11

If that's the case, then Labour will be losing a shed load of votes too. To many who voted Labour, it was purely to get shot of the Tories.

Labour often do lose votes as there are other left wing parties.

The Conservatives have a tough job ahead as they'll be torn between moving further right to lure back the Reform voters and nearer the centre for the the protest/swing voters.

I think it's a good thing Reform came along as it's more democratic to have more than one party on either side.

IfImOnFire · 06/07/2024 14:21

TwigletsAndRadishes · 06/07/2024 14:05

But in 2015 we hadn't yet had a referendum. And in 2019 Brexit was not yet delivered.

UKIP (latterly the Brexit Party) was essentially a single issue party, a bit like the SNP. Once that issue was achieved there was no further use for it and people could go about voting either Tory or Labour as they saw fit.

And yet we have Reform, which got over 4 million votes, which is 14% of the vote share. When you consider that Labour managed to win with only 34% I don't think it's wise to write Reform off as insignificant.

I didn't write them off as insignificant. Brexit didn't deliver what the UKIP voters wanted (or what anyone wanted) - Farage has pointed out its failure. So those same 4 million people are still dissatisfied. This time they voted Reform. Same people, same number of them. More seats because of our electoral system, but if you're saying Labour are in the same position (or worse) than under Corbyn then so are Reform, things haven't materially improved for them in ten years since they were UKIP if you apply the same logic.

ExecutionersBong · 06/07/2024 14:25

LadyWhistled0wn · 05/07/2024 17:52

Says everything about you if you think a party who call autistic people vegetables are excellent. Vile!

Vegan Tree GIF by Welcome! At America’s Diner we pronounce it GIF.

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Livelovebehappy · 06/07/2024 14:45

LadyWhistled0wn · 05/07/2024 18:36

So you do agree with calling disabled people vegetables? Vile cretin. 🤮

The irony! You do realise that a cretin was a disability linked to deformity?

JassyRadlett · 06/07/2024 14:49

I enjoyed Danny Finkelstein yesterday pointing out that any time Farage has to work cooperatively with people for an extended period, such as in a parliamentary party, it doesn't tend to end well.

I'm quite enjoying the mental image of meetings of the parliamentary party - Nigel, 30p Lee, two multimillionaires called Richard and Baby Finance Bro.

What could go wrong?

TwigletsAndRadishes · 06/07/2024 15:43

IfImOnFire · 06/07/2024 14:21

I didn't write them off as insignificant. Brexit didn't deliver what the UKIP voters wanted (or what anyone wanted) - Farage has pointed out its failure. So those same 4 million people are still dissatisfied. This time they voted Reform. Same people, same number of them. More seats because of our electoral system, but if you're saying Labour are in the same position (or worse) than under Corbyn then so are Reform, things haven't materially improved for them in ten years since they were UKIP if you apply the same logic.

Yes, all fair points.

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