Private School VAT Backtrack?

[SofaThrow]

There seem to be rumours swirling that Starmer has decided not to bring in the VAT on private schools until possibly 2025/6. After being very clear last year that there would be no phase in and that they would bring it in immediately.
Nothing is as yet confirmed I don't think.

I think it’s pretty obvious that the wider voter pool are perfectly content with letting other parents pay for improving their own children’s education!

Then that's what they'll vote for.

It's no skin off my personal nose either way and I was just trying to illustrate that it maybe wasn't the vote generator or vote loser it might first appear to be - because I thought for a lot of people it would be a non issue either way.

But I now suspect I am wrong in that - and it is more of a vote generator than I thought....

Is there a typo on that chart? The "support" on the red side should surely be "oppose".

Yes, I've seen that chart before and thought the same thing. You'd think they could at least get it right before circulating!🙄

It's going to have a massive impact on a very small number of people. That small number are extremely upset. A lot of the parents I know cycle to work to save on a car, do their own DIY, buy the uniform second hand. I don't think they're bluffing. The fact that it isn't a change spread out amongst a larger section of society is what feels so unfair about it.

Fees have risen, and people who used to afford private education (eg. GPs) can no longer afford it. This will just accelerate that process. It's not the 'parents have soaked up the fees', it's that different people are paying for it. You'd have to have your kids pretty spaced out to be using private education for 25 years. 😁

This is true. Where I live schools are mainly used by Indian and Pakistani families who are professionals had one kid at 30-34, another at 34-44 and lots of parental support. We’re the outlier as we only have one and are in our 40s.

If anyone does care about the vat issue, read more about it and sign here :

https://www.change.org/p/stop-labour-from-adding-20-vat-to-private-school-fees-and-forcing-kids-to-change-schools/u/32672954?cs_tk=An7Iy1Sp4okMBb7UcWYAAXicyyvNyQEABF8BvE7huEk9vVrX8Yg0wNRkMX8%3D&utm_campaign=d2ae502bce934219954a5d593e74cfe7&utm_content=initial_v0_7_1&utm_medium=email&utm_source=petition_update&utm_term=cs

So I wonder if private schools see themselves in a similar fashion as Chanel, who increase their fees exponentially to remain exclusive. Rather than frustration at the government, parents need to focus on letting the schools know they need to reign their rises in and that they will vote with their feet. But I doubt that will happen

The reason for the fee rises has more to do with teachers' pension contributions going up. They're not run for profit. The governors are people like my local vicar. I really don't think my local vicar is scheming to rip people off! However, there is perhaps an element of them competing against one another to have the best facilities, as demand goes down and more go under, perhaps this will slow down a bit?

The teacher pension thing is relatively recent. The fee hikes started well before that. I know private schools including ours with 18 in a class. Making that 20 would have little consequence to the class and cover most - if not all - of the VAT rise. Parents need to press the schools, not the government

Many schools around here have already done that several years ago - class sizes have increased from 16/18 to 20.

That has probably helped with fee increases. Not so here. Saying that, I have heard of private schools elsewhere with 24/26 in a class - which doesn't seem that different from 30.

My general point is the independent schools can make small changes that will not significantly impact that solid offering and USP to maintain a range of clients. Or they can slap the 20% on and continue with their fee hikes and have only millionaires....They don't seem to be averse to the latter

Another issue is that governors would rather be responsible for a 9% fee increase than fire people. It's not just the parents they're thinking of. If they really need to cut back, increase class sizes, lower fees, they're going to have to fire people, as teachers are the biggest cost.

Why would they need to fire staff if they increase class sizes very slightly or have 2 inclusive trips instead of 3? Things like that... I do agree that staff should be protected from all of this as much as possible.

Our local private school are awash in money. They have a new shooting range, the pool has been refurbished, they have a very large number of tennis courts, squash, cricket, rugby, new science labs etc. The facilities and opportunities are out of this world and for a very small number of children. Compared to the local states schools it's a massive contrast. They really don't need to charge so much but they do. They have 2 fully funded bursaries only each year.

No wonder they publish great results with the cherry picking and advantage 🙄

Maybe I'm being a bit thick, but how does increasing class sizes cut costs if you still hire the same number of teachers? So, you had 3 classes, you cut that down to 2, you're down a teacher, right?

They are not trying to cut costs. The schools usually increase their fees yearly. Say by 4-5%. Sometimes up to 15% but let's ignore that for now. Government says add 20% VAT - and parents panic. If they reduce the fees slightly and increase the number of kids in the class, they minimise any loss to the school, dont need to fire any teachers, minimise increase to parents and give the government their 20%. Everybody wins

Our school has struggled to fill classes for new intake this year and last - combination of general cost of living and fear of VAT. Adding extra places only works if there is someone waiting to take them up, but in the current environment that isn’t the case for our region.

Fair enough. I guess I'm speaking from a very London-centric perspective. Even that may yet change....

Is the declining pupil population also an issue?

I haven't seen modelling specifically on the impact on private schools but I can't see a reason they'd be particularly insulated?

I am sure that over time broader demographic trends will affect all schools, but we are talking about a 30% decline in the final starting reception class size over the last 2 years, so clearly more than a demographic change.

Like I said I'm just curious the weight of different factors, and whether any modelling has been done on it. Given the scale of reduction across the board and the socioeconomics of birth rates it's an interesting one.