Will feminism be a short lived chapter in history?

[rriffraff]

I've been Looking at the demographic trends around the world it seems as though the democratic, secular countries where women are free to work, get an education and control their fertility are significantly reducing in population and failing compared to the societies that have a patriarchal system where women do not work, marry young and have less education and more children, they are the societies that are expanding.

For instance Japan today has 123.1 million people, this will drop off to 80/100 million by 2060.The Japanese National Institute of Population Research indicate that Japan's population could be as low as 62 people!!! by the year 3000 if the trajectory continues.
Korea's population is estimated to drop from 51.68 million to 20 million by 2100.China (not democratic but also not religious) current population of 1.4 billion is potentially going to fall below 800 million by the end of the century- nearly halved in 75 years.
In 2023, the fertility rate in England and Wales is now 1.44 children per woman, the lowest level on record and it's the same story accross Europe.

There are a lot of economic factors that cause a population drop and incentivise not having children - The Welfare State takes care of us in old age, not our younger family members. Child labour has been abolished which was previously an economic incentive. Children can help with farm labour whereas they are a cost liability in the urban environment-
For instance in the USA The Amish population of agrarian farmers where it is a benifit to have children at the moment the population is around 500,00 - this is roughly doubling every 20 years, so projected to reach around 3 million by 3050.

The Urban environment is not the whole story however as religious populations that also live within the urban environment continue having larger families despite the costs and difficulties. The Catholic population is slowly but steadily growing worldwide (not in Europe though) to 1.406 billion - increasing 1.15%. Muslim communities continue to have higher family numbers in the UK (3 per woman) as our own population decline continues.
A study by ResearchGate identified several countries in Europe where the Muslim population could reach a majority status between 2085 and 2215, including Cyprus (2085), Sweden (2125), France (2135), Greece (2135), Belgium (2140), Bulgaria (2140), Italy (2175), Luxembourg (2175), Slovenia (2190), Switzerland (2195), Ireland (2200), and Lithuania (2215) and the UK (2180).

The Yiddish speaking ultra orthadox Haredi Jews around the world are about 14% of Jewish people but predicted to rise to 23% by 2040 and 2065 they will be 40%-50% in Israel as they have on average 6.6 children.

I'm not advocating for women to have less choices but just observing that women staying in education during our most fertile years- 18-23 and then going into the workforce, having a career and trying to juggle family life is not set up for having large families. I don't have any answers. I personally have benefited from feminism, I work and I limited my family size to two, I went to University. I'm just observing what the trend might be for women in the next few generations.

If feminism exists in mainly democratic westernised societies and they eventually become very small and insignificant because of a collapse in the long term viability of sustainable birth rates then the world will return to the 'religious society model' because that is all that will be left within a few generations. Feminism can't be seen as a success in that case?

When the ultra-Orthodox are the majority

When will European Muslim population be majority and inwhich country?Pierre Rostan and Alexandra RostanHigher Colleges of Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

It's not just religious groups that aren't progressive, the far right isn't either. There's a surge in far right ideology and it's not feminist.

In the US for example, project 25 is a toxic mix of Christianity and patriarchy. Contraception and abortion are diminished and women are seen as breeders for the dominant race.

I'm not sure why you've used Japan, Korea and China as examples, none of those countries are particularly female friendly.

Our own hard right are banging on about abortion and want to get rid off our basic rights.

On the other hand, countries where women are not educated to higher levels or have significant rights also have significant problems with education, literacy, overpopulation, public health crises, and economic stagnation.

Population growth may be high in those countries, but ultimately restricting women to subservient roles significantly limits societies in all sorts of ways - high birth rates, but very low productivity, low skilled and poorly educated populations with significant health crises, agricultural failure, and low social mobility.

Societies which appear to restrict women yet seem to have a relatively modern economy (like Dubai or Saudi Arabia), are managing this on imported labour, oil money and sleight of hand. The real story is in countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan etc. where a high birth rate does not go along with a productive economy or a healthy political state.

Eventually, if you want the benefits of modernity, you need to emancipate women. Birth control, healthcare and education for women are absolutely key to achieving stable, healthy, well-functioning societies.

Feminism arose in cultures where women did not have rights.

Not to vote, not to property, not to divorce, not to their children, not to abortion, not to bodily integrity, not to independence, not to personhood.

We didn't get rights and then develop feminism.

It will persist.

Feminism = extinction

That is one of the weirdest bits of pseudo-argument I’ve seen on Mn, which is saying something,

Year 3000 - I think that it's likely there will be many, many other changes before then. There are too many variables to make such predictions.

No

Silly argument.
the bit about the Japanese population dropping to 62 people by 3000 should alert you to the foolishness of following a line on a graph in isolation.

as to the rest…many children from religious families are less religious or reject it entirely. Women born into a more egalitarian society can make their own choices more easily than their mothers could.

I do agree with you that countries where they have a high birth rate do not go along with a productive economy or a healthy political state. But you cannot say that a society is healthy if it is not producing enough children to carry on to the next generation.

look at this map, the developed countries with the modern way of life are all below the replacement rate and only Africa, the middle East and India have above replacement rates.

The State of Global Fertiity

I'm not sure why you've used Japan, Korea and China as examples, none of those countries are particularly female friendly.

Women there can work and get an education.They do not have arranged marriage and they can own property.
I used them as examples because of their terribly low birthrates (South Korea 0.75, China 1.02 and Japan 1.23. A birth rate of 1 in a population half men half women will produce half the number of people in the next generation).

Women there can work and get an education.They do not have arranged marriage and they can own property.

Hasn't it occurred to you that women don't want to have more children because they're expected to do all the work; contribute financially, do the majority of household labour and childcare is very expensive.

In those Asian countries, you're expected to marry and once you do, your life becomes very small which is why women aren't interested. Domestic violence is also very high with regressive attitudes towards it.

Charming fellow, aren't you? 😊

Any kind of feminism that doesn't support the structure of patriarchy is sadly unlikely to be successful.

The structures of patriarchy are upheld by divisions and classifications, within which certain women are "allowed" more autonomy and freedoms than others. Feminism will probably be upheld (to an extent) as long as it is focused on the groups of women who most align with patriarchal values. E.g. white, heterosexual, child-bearing, married, gender-conforming women.

Everyone else will be thrown under a bus by this group because their success relies on their proximity to patriarchal values. (This group will also deny the struggles of any other women and use themselves as examples of an equal society, even when other women continue to be subjugated: "Of course men and women are equal, look at me and how well I've done for myself").

True feminism is inter-sectional and inclusive, but unfortunately unless we become strong enough to over power the men who currently over power us, true inter-sectional feminism will never exist.

Utterly depressing. I'm starting to think that 70s radicalesbians were right and we can't possibly defeat the patriarchy whilst still living alongside men in heterosexual relationships.

Judging by many people on Mumsnet, yes. In fact it’s gone already.

I think that's the key. Women may lose and gain rights over time but I think that it will persist as an idea wherever women don't have rights that men have, or dont have rights that women need due to biology. Where men and women both don't have rights I assume a different type of movement would exist.

This was evident during the fight for civil rights in the States. Women were very much behind the scenes and continued to be discriminated against. It was centred around men.

You have a whole bunch of fertile years left after 23.
There are answers to falling population that don't involve throwing women under the bus. Better childcare. A healthier economy and public services.
Japan and S. Korea are not easy places to be a mother and have a career. maybe read up on that.

Feminism will probably be upheld (to an extent) as long as it is focused on the groups of women who most align with patriarchal values. E.g. white, heterosexual, child-bearing, married, gender-conforming women.
Everyone else will be thrown under a bus by this group because their success relies on their proximity to patriarchal values.

These characteristics may be valued by the patriarchy but that does not make them "aligned with patriarchal values." Weird phrasing.

You're conflating having a religion with being massively disempowered/having no agency and having no religion with being feminist/empowered. That's a false syllogism (just like you can't definitively say the opposite is true).
Japan and Korea are not bastions of feminism. They're literally going extinct because motherhood over there is so shit for women.
Muslim majority countries in Europe are unlikely to resemble Afghanistan or Iran; the women over here have more education, rights and freedoms regardless of their religion and if anything, I predict we'll see a more moderate, westernised version of Islam prevailing in the west. It's got 100+ years to develop by your timeline. Look at where western society was for women 100 years ago.

Also is it me or have there been a lot of these sort of posts about the declining birth rate and how we're unbreeding ourselves into extinction lately? 🤔 If western European people do disappear as a culture, what is the catastrophe?

Until pupils in secondary schools stop using 'feminist' and 'feminism' as insults ,we need feminism.
I regularly hear ' I can't be bothered with feminism .' from female pupils.

Yes it's far right ideology; it's called the Great Replacement theory.

I think you’ll find it’s patriarchy and capitalism that are to blame, darling.

Declining birth rates are fantastic news, better for the planet, better for working people, better for women. The only people it’s not better for are the parasite billionaires who profit off other people’s labour. Labour scarcity means labour will cost them more - cry me a river. Population decline is the best antidote to the great gush up.

That is correct. Make life better for mothers and they'll have more children.

But we have an aging population. If we don't reach replacement level things will be v hard for quite a while trying to fund elder care & keep life going w a small workforce. We need tp keep our elderly happy & healthy, and hopefully some will be able to contribute for longer but obvs many cannot.

I think we'll probs see a big downturn in feminism and women's rights if white middle class people cease being the ruling class. 50% of British Muslims believe that gay people should be imprisoned according to surveys so whilst I've no issue with anybody on an individual level I don't think it'll be good news for human rights if they're the dominant class in a few decades.