Brexit Mega Thread 16 – Who's Next?

[LouiseCollins28]

We are approaching the 6th anniversary of Brexit, or I suppose the 5th, if you count the period of transition as "in."

Since then, the world has endured Covid-19, seen war in Ukraine and many other things. Brexit has had reduced salience in the minds of many people recently.

When digesting the latest setbacks to befall the elite who govern our islands, a phrase I keep returning to, is “OK, so now do you get it?”

Brexit is undoubtedly the biggest “OK, so now do you get it?” moment directed at our leaders in my life. It’s surely the largest since 1979, since the Labour victory of 1945? or even since the advent of universal suffrage?

The U.K. local elections in 2026, and subsequent national ones, could see a big increase in support for the Green Party and Reform U.K. Two parties with more different attitudes to European integration could scarcely be found, so Brexit’s salience in the U.K. may rise again soon
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There are many electoral contests in progress or coming across Europe too (the Netherlands and France, for example) which will be worth paying attention to. Maybe the next questions we will face are less about "what next?" and more about "who's next?"

Relations between mainland Europe and the UK remain a worthy topic for discussion, whoever leads the nations of Europe, or leads the E.U. itself.

Is this squirrel the reincarnation of Globe ?

Clav was much more fun - she was human.

At least Clav had a couple of brain cells to rub together, even if it was an annoying shill...

Good news.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-eu-sps-agreement-legislation-in-scope

Gone very quiet in here. Sorry I've been off MN for ages. Hope all the regulars are well.

Noticed this interesting long read from John Curtice on Labour's emerging approach to the EU and where they are focussed now. Honestly I'd expected to be very unimpressed with an article headlined as below but (as usually with SJC) he makes his point very, very well IMO.

Sir John Curtice: Why Labour's Brexit focus has shifted from Leavers to Remainers

He's keen to write Labour off. The point he doesn't make is that in large measure Labour won because Reform went and split the Tory vote. Chasing the Reform Vote hasn't served Labour well, so they may as well try something else. Maybe try to pick up a moderate (and likely to be pro EU) Tory vote in what was once the red wall?

But we are now very much in a post Brexit world, a Brexit which the Tories made a mess of, and we are now saddled with a mad man in the White House. So whatever shakes down in the next 5 -10 years is going to be very different from what we thought we would have 10 years ago.

It's official! ... The French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot just invited Britain back into the Single Market. He said we'd be met with "open arms".

https://bsky.app/profile/brexitbin.bsky.social/post/3mhbr6yiesk2z

Not sure that SJC observing that Labour have lots voters on both "wings" - some to Reform, some to the revitalised Green Party constitutes writing them off. Where he wrote them off was (wrongly IMO) attributing their 2019 defeat to the party's (then) position(s) on Brexit, which I think had markedly lower salience than the opinion of many voters that they didn't want Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister.

I'd say writing Labour off at this stage is foolhardy given then have c400 MPs and all of their opponents have obvious flaws. Starmer's premiership I think is likely to end before the next GE is held, but new leadership could reinvigorate Labour IMO.

As you say re: the right, I think the same my apply in GE '28/29. the vote on the right is likely to be split between Reform and the Conservatives. Voters on the left look like they will split between Labour and a Polanski led Green party (in England anyway). Scotland and Wales v. different and I don't know enough to comment sensibly.

What will be interesting is if a move left by Labour will stop them losing votes to the Greens, but it may also see them lose again votes that they managed to gain from the Conservatives in 2024. If those voters stick with Labour, then Labour still wins by a mile IMO. If they don't, where they go is important. If they return to the Conservatives then I think Labour still wins, if they switch again to vote Reform all bets are off.

I think by 2024 people had given up on the Conservatives and it didn't matter who led them, they were going to lose. Don't think the same is true for Labour right now. Given up on Starmer? possibly yes. Given up on Labour? I don't think so.

What the various party's propositions are on relationships with the EU at next GE will be interesting. How's about this:

Labour: Closer but not Rejoin?
Reform: Range between as now and more distant?
Conservative: Now, if they went to the electorate proposing "closer" that would really be interesting IMO. More likely "as now/no change".
Lib Dem: Rejoin
Green: Presumably Rejoin as well

BTW in my above scenario I think it's the Lib Dems who get crushed and possibly the Conservatives too if they merely offer "No change", rather than Labour.

Reform gets my vote. The UK has had decades of Conservative and Labour governments, but nothing seems to change for the good.

Easy to vote Reform from abroad isn't it.

I don't think anyone is surprised by your choice.

People are free to vote for whoever they wish.

Some good news

Holiday work experience? Spanish government scraps the current Visa requirement for short-term British workers.

Spain has decided to exempt British nationals from a visa requirement if they come to work in Spain for up to 90 days. Reciprocated in UK.

Spain has decided to exempt British nationals from a visa requirement if they come to work in Spain for up to 90 days. Reciprocated in UK.

It’s called the the Schengen 90/180 guideline which has been in place for decades. Visits, including business trips, are subject to a maximum of 90 days per rolling 180 days period for persons arriving from non Schengen countries.

Between 2020 and 2025, I rotated in and out the Netherlands each week to ensure I never exceeded the 90 days per 180. Arrival on Monday and departure on Thursday was three days out of seven days per week.

And, as you repeatedly failed to recognise earlier, it was never a problem while we were in the EU...

He is doing great at pointing out the stupidity that is Brexit

There is no problem now as hybrid working has become much more common since COVID proved how much work can be done from home.

Take a look on LinkedIn. Many UK and the EU jobs are advertised as hybrid. The advantages to employers are:

Netter life/work balance for their employees.
Less office space is needed.

Less travel expenses.

If EU employers don’t want to offer hybrid jobs, they can apply for a Visa for persons outside of the EU. Countries like the Netherlands and Italy offer highly skilled migrant workers visa and reduced taxation to attract them.

The Netherlands has the entrepreneurs allowance which exempts 30% of salary from Dutch taxes for 6 years. Italy exempts 50% of salary from Italian taxes for 4 years.

So, the assertion that Brexit has made it more difficult to work in the EU is incorrect.

You really are an idiot...

So, the assertion that Brexit has made it more difficult to work in the EU is incorrect.

Twaddle. My DCs were able to work in EU countries without the fun and games of "rotating in and out".

If EU employers don’t want to offer hybrid jobs, they can apply for a Visa for persons outside of the EU.

They didn't need visas then. They could just rock up. Depending on the countries, they did need residence permits or various forms of work ID.

And if Covid has now made working from home easier - that applies globally, and only fortuitous that it's made Brexit easier.

Oh, look, The EU got a better deal with Australia than the UK

Wondering what leverage in negotiations looks like?

Australia's new FTA with the EU provides 16,830 tonnes of tariff free access for beef.

Australia's FTA with the UK, completed with a desperate Johnson administration, provided 35,000 tonnes tariff free, rising to unlimited over 15 years.

And

Significant day for UK trade policy. With the announcement of the EU-Australia FTA the UK now only has an FTA where the EU doesn't with Malaysia and Brunei as part of CPTPP. The EU meanwhile has a deal with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay that the UK doesn't.

@Peregrina

If the EU employers, or any other country outside the UK, think your daughters are worth employing they will act as sponsors for Visa. I have had Visas for:

India
UAE
Mauritius
Turkey
US
Thailand
Taiwan
Japan
Bulgaria
Russia
Kazakhstan
Iraq

The Dutch government allowed trades people from Russia and Ukraine to work on the Gasunie project. The Belgian government allowed trades people from various TCN countries to work on the INEOS project.

@DuncinToffee

Wondering what leverage in negotiations looks like?

So, how do you explain why US tariffs are higher for the EU than the UK?

If I had to choose between a deal with Australia (15th largest economy in the world) or with the US, the largest economy in the world. It’s the US every time.

Flattering.

And if they can employ someone with the same skill who doesn't require the time and money spent on a visa, they will do so.

I've worked in recruitment, it's not really something that should surprise anyone with half a brain...

How is it that someone doesn't understand that once you didn't need a visa for EU countries and now you do, is not a disadvantage to both employers and employees. Followed by a long list of places, only one of which is in the EU.

If locals have the skills local employers need, there is no need to employ non-nationals regardless of EU membership

COVID highlighted how much work can be done remotely. Employers around the world have saved money by offering hybrid working. The benefits are:

Employers

Smaller offices can be used.
Lower energy and rental costs.

Employees

Improved life/work balance.
Less commuting and lower travel expenses.

So, hybrid working makes it very easy to remain within the 90/180 Schengen guideline. I know this as I have done it between 2020 and 2025. Three days in office (same as the local staff) and the remaining 4 days per week in the UK added to annual leave and public holidays means I never pass 90 days per 180.

A Dutch highly skilled migrant visa can be had in 2 to 4 weeks for those who are unable to remain within the 90/180 guideline (eg construction workers)

Source:
https://www.jobbatical.com/services/netherlands-highly-skilled-migrant-permit-kennismigrant

Cost is about €420, which as a contractor can be written off as business expense.

Prior to 2020, there were approximately 1.2 million UK citizens living/working in the EU. As of 2024, the figures is approximately 1.3 million. So, very little change.

Source:
https://www.thelocal.com/20240920/thousands-of-britons-still-moving-to-eu-countries-despite-brexit?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqd3nZlj4us4JQV5UifZGbbUWvJbkfe9bNLlNB_70eR66EQr9gyTkfJrfEIHTSI%3D&gaa_ts=69c3da0a&gaa_sig=5aP0gX0hErMcQl4DhQj0_D8mVKTOYVWHhm2c7OkP1kraiLJVpsNUD-N3sZnrFR2DRuKPf1OqVISNuWEa_pLayw%3D%3D

So it does cost money, and it takes time. Therefore, most employers won't do it.

This is really basic stuff. Are you genuinely not able to comprehend it, or just so desperate to get TwatGPT to write some nonsense so you can pretend you have a remotely valid point when clearly you don't?

I think we know the answer...