Brexit mega thread part 13: All eyes on Ireland

[SerendipityJane]

With the Windsor framework up & running, and the DUP having a "you could set your calendar by it" hissy fit, but Irish unification refusing to keep it's head down, what next in the long running sage of UK vs. the real world ?

@VimtoVimto This is disingenuous to say the least. MPs should act in the interest of the country, not in the interests of their donors or what the editors of the Mail/Sun/Express want.

Preservation of democracy is in the interests of any country. Without democracy, the law of the jungle prevails and differences of opinion are resolved by violence. The winner being the one with the most effective weapons, even if they are a small minority. Haiti is a recent example.

Trigger of Article 50 was obligatory based on committments made by Cameron:

United Kingdom invocation of Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union - Wikipedia reads:

Necessity of invoking Article 50

The British government stated that they would expect a leave vote to be followed by withdrawal, not by a second vote.[7] In a leaflet sent out before the referendum, the British government stated "This is your decision. The Government will implement what you decide."[8] Although Cameron stated during the campaign that he would invoke Article 50 straight away in the event of a leave victory,[9] he refused to allow the Civil Service to make any contingency plans, something the Foreign Affairs Select Committee later described as "an act of gross negligence"

Also, Article 50 was developed over the period 2002 to 2009. Why did the EU spend seven years developing a mechanism for a member to leave the EU if the assumption that no member would ever want to leave?

Any union that prevents members from leaving is not a democratic union.

A LibDem government was never going to happen.

Why not? Surely if Brexit was going to destroy the UK as forecast by remain supporters from 23 June 2016 onwards, a vote for the LibDems was the way forward?

How on earth can anyone think that Brexit was or is a good idea.

17.4 million voted leave on 23 June 2016. 498 MPs (UK lawmakers) then voted to trigger Article 50 on 29 March 2017.

Even Labour, who are tipped to win the next election, have not made the case for the UK to rejoin the EU

The whole thing has and continues to be a shambles from the start.

For whom? Some may be worse off, but I am not convinced it is the entire UK population.

Measureable upsides since 2016 are:

Unemployment has reduced
Trades people are receiving better pay rises
UK has grown faster than Germany. This was confirned by the former Siemens CEO on Question time earlier this year.

Measureable downsides since 2016 are:

UK pound buys less Euro than immediatley before the referendum. So, imports from the EU cost more.

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You’re right @HannibalHeyes - but I’m not going to massage his or her ego (I genuinely think he or she enjoys the attention ) by even engaging with him or her - so it’s saves energy by not bothering reading his or her posts

And the rest of you do such a good job of debunking his or her posts, so I get a vicarious sense of the nonsense that he or she posts via your ripostes which again remind me that it’s not worth wasting my time reading them

https://www.bigissue.com/news/employment/farmers-universal-basic-income-bankruptcy-brexit/

In 2019, the UK received approximately £4.7bn in funding from the EU under the Common Agricultural Policy. Without those subsidies, between 19% and 42% of farms wouldn’t have been able to break even.

EU subsidies are slowly being replaced by UK government schemes – but there are funding gaps. Uncertainty over trade deals could force half of farmers out of business, analysis by organic farming group Riverford suggests.

If a crying baby is using up the oxygen in a space, the grown ups won't be able to converse. Especially if that babies oxygen demands are ludicrously high because of all the fucking noise they have to make.

@SerendipityJane

UK population is estimated at 68 million. Under 18s (not yet legally adult) make up Approx. 17.5% of the population. So, there are Approx. 56 Million adults in the UK.

So, to test your theory about one baby and adults would require a sealed room large enough to hold 56 million people.

The UK regulation for prison cells is 4m2. Apply that to 56 million, you would need a room that is 224 Million m2. This is Approx. 42,000 football pitches.

@HannibalHeyes

Facts are:

More people voted to leave the EU than remain in the 2016 referendum.
UK lawmakers (MPs) triggered Article 50 by a majority of 498 to 114 in 2017.
Brexit could have been reversed in the 2019 general election, but voters chose otherwise.

Propoganda has been spread by remain supporters since 23 June 2016 with forecasts of;

Food and medicine shortages.
Huge increases in unemployment.
The UK would be plinged into poverty.

But where is the evidence that these forecasts have become true?

The crying babies, if anyone, are those who promote:

Minority opinion prevails because they say so.
Brexit is illegal.
People should have to pass a test before they are allowed to vote.

Some may be worse off since 2016, but I am not convinced it is the majority.

Food and medicine shortages.
Have you seen supermarket shelves? And yes, there are medicine shortages and these have got worse since the UK properly left the EU. I work in the NHS and I see the notifications weekly.

The UK would be plinged into poverty.
Poverty is on the rise. Just Google it. And don't start whinging about 'relative poverty' - the UK is a wealthy Western democracy, and yet the number of children living in poverty is rising.

I know a lot of posters will get the point that GlobeTrotter2000s programming missed.

@pointythings

Potential food shortages have been attributed to:

Climate change and global conflicts which impact supply chains. Neither of these events are connected to Brexit. Links are:

Food shortages ‘alarmingly likely’ in the UK next year (telegraph.co.uk)

UK could experience ‘civil unrest’ due to food shortages triggered by climate disasters | The Independ

the UK is a wealthy Western democracy, and yet the number of children living in poverty is rising.

Poverty rates are:

EU average 21.5%
Germany 20.9%
UK 18%

Fighting poverty in Europe: Meet the people who are making a difference - Talking Europe (france24.com)

Poverty is set to be one of the key issues dominating the 2024 European elections. The EU is home to 95 million people who live below the poverty line – that is, who live on less than 60 percent of the median income for their country. In all, that's one in five Europeans who live at risk of social exclusion.
The current European Commission has pledged to reduce the number of people living in poverty by 15 million by 2030 – but due to the global pandemic, the war in Ukraine, inflation and rising energy prices, the trend has actually gone the other way, with the past three years seeing the number of people in poverty rising by 3 million.

So, again global pandemic and conflicts are the root cause.

Same applies to the US (the wealthiest Western democracy). Poverty has increased since 2019

Poverty rate U.S. 1990-2022 | Statista

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So none of it is anything to do with Brexit then? That notorious left wing remainer paper the FT thinks otherwise.

https://www.ft.com/content/6d83c96b-109f-4d6c-a7f9-57626a135bd8

And the fact that poverty (by your measure, which I am inclined to be sceptical about) is higher elsewhere, does not mean that it is not appalling in the UK and also does not mean that it is not rising.

@HannibalHeyes I know, but I'm not posting for our resident Squirrel. It's more for people who might look at this thread and will need something to counteract the endless flow of misinformation.

Indeed.

But I do admire your ability to maintain your critical thinking on our behalf @pointythings and lots of

@prettybird to be fait our squirrel does make it so very easy to refute their statements.

I wouldn’t know - I don’t read his posts But I get a sense of their superficiality (and utter or is it deliberate? missing of the point ) from your measured responses

I appreciate your efforts

They read and don't understand. Not necessarily a definitive indication of a bot, as there are people like that IRL.

Here's an example. Now it might be possible to add some steers to the prompting so that particular bot was more "in the zone". However, fuck all has really changed in the world of pattern matching dressed up as "intelligence" since it was part of my studies before "Thriller" was released.

@pointythings

The FT article was dated 28 January 2024 and talked about changes that would occur 31 January onwards. Can you provide a link that proves people have died from starvation since those changes?

And the fact that poverty (by your measure, which I am inclined to be sceptical about) is higher elsewhere, does not mean that it is not appalling in the UK and also does not mean that it is not rising.

Nor does it prove that it is solely attributable to Brexit.

That difficulties tackling poverty in the EU has been attributed to pandemic and war, but at the same time poverty in the EU is comparable to the UK, suggests that Brexit has had very little impact.

but at the same time poverty in the EU is comparable to the UK, suggests that Brexit has had very little impact.

Or on the contrary, the fact that the UK hasn't raced ahead in eliminating poverty is a sign that the EU was not the source of many of our ills. I would put the blame squarely on Westminster. However, Brexit is very much a part of the current Wesminster culture and has been since 2010.

Fuck-o-meter:
Standby ...
Recalibrating ...
Reading parameters ...
New determination available.

Number of fucks now given: 0

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-britain-farmers-eu-general-election-b2524707.html

@Peregrina Or on the contrary, the fact that the UK hasn't raced ahead in eliminating poverty is a sign that the EU was not the source of many of our ills.

Had; leaving the EU, pandemic and wars not overlapped, that could be a valid reason.

Apparently, the lowest levels of poverty risk in the EU are,

Czechia (12%), Slovenia (13%) and Poland (16%

Highest is Bulgaria, 32% and Romania 34%.

That the established and more wealthy western EU members have higher poverty rates than some of the relatively new Eastern European members seems odd. Or, is it that in wealthy countries, the gap between rich and poor is greater?

I know this has been referenced before but I thought it was worth posting about again: Brexit has cost Scotland, strike that, the UK’s largest food export, salmon, £75-£100 million in lost sales.

That’s not including the increased costs, eg the £3 million due to the lack of an e-certification scheme

Yet another example of shootings ourselves in the foot

But it’s only Scotland so who cares?

https://www.salmonscotland.co.uk/news/brexit-costs-scotland-up-to-100-million-a-year-in-lost-salmon-exports

Can you provide a link that proves people have died from starvation since those changes?

It's amazing how some people can completely fail at reading comprehension.

Not really. Someone had to vote for Brexit.