Got Brexit Done. So who's next?

[PicsInRed]

The greatest fear of the EU in giving the UK any sort of a "deal" upon exit was that other states would begin to see leaving as a feasible option.

Regardless of whether you believe Brexit will be negative, positive or neutral, it is now possible to leave - and with a deal.

I think that Italy and Greece will see a resurgence of exit sentiments - particularly after what happened to Italy during the pandemic. Possibly also Scotland - which the EU may allow to join now simply to make other leavers think carefully about their regions e.g. Catalonia.

Who do you think will be next to hold a referendum? Or do you think the EU will now pursue closer legal ties than ever e.g. the posited one Euro army?

Hehehe, very good, I'll bite. It has always been possible to leave the EU, it's just such a fucking dumb idea, only a partially unknowingly subjugated population would countenance such a thing.

Oh I’ll bite too. Speaking as an Italian resident I don’t think Italy are going anywhere for now. That the Recovery Fund from the Big Bad EU is pretty important to us is one of many reasons why not. Some anti Europe sentiment from some political factions in Italy does not a batshit crazy exit make. Especially when the country hasn’t been subject to 40 years of anti European propaganda fed to us by slavishly immoral media sources as happened in the UK. We have a long way to go before we catch up with the UK on that front.

Nobody else is batshit mental enough to inflict an exit shitshow on themselves.

@BlackForestCake

Nobody else is batshit mental enough to inflict an exit shitshow on themselves.

Would Scotland though? A reverse Brexit - leave the UK and join the EU? Perhaps this is where we'll see leaver unrest next? I understand the Netherlands and Denmark have a growing leaver movement which really surprised me.

I’m Dutch and haven’t heard anything about a growing Leaver movement here.

The war is still very much in living memory here amongst the very old and the rest of us have heard all the stories. The geography of this country makes it practically indefensible.

Don’t forget that the Dutch have been a trading nation for centuries and we want to keep doing that, selling our fruit, veg and flowers to the world.

The UK’s antics in recent years have made our own government look good (which is no mean feat!).

What Bananagio said! Also in Italy a referendum with the same conditions as the Brexit one wouldn't be possible as it would be unconstitutional. The UK may not take democracy seriously but other countries still do.

I think maybe Atlantis and Narnia would be next to go...

I think Denmark has had a bit of a resurgence of support for the E.U. off the back of the Brexit shit show.

@Lucywarlowsrighthand

I’m Dutch and haven’t heard anything about a growing Leaver movement here.

The war is still very much in living memory here amongst the very old and the rest of us have heard all the stories. The geography of this country makes it practically indefensible.

Don’t forget that the Dutch have been a trading nation for centuries and we want to keep doing that, selling our fruit, veg and flowers to the world.

The UK’s antics in recent years have made our own government look good (which is no mean feat!).

www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-rise-of-dutch-euroscepticism

I'd be very surprised if the Dutch left - I was surprised there was any sort of movement or euroscepticm at all.

Also in Italy a referendum with the same conditions as the Brexit one wouldn't be possible as it would be unconstitutional.

That's interesting - is there any constitutional mechanism for Italy to leave by referendum or would it come down to a parliamentary vote?

AFAIK I think a referendum is possible but in the UK so many citizens were disenfranchised (which wouldn't be allowed). Plus the result of the referendum meant that rights were removed from citizens without there being an overall majority (of the whole electorate) which is also problematic.

I'll bite on the question of Scotland. The SNP have used Brexit as an excuse for another indyref for the last 4 years, but with the economy hownit currently is theresno way Scotland could survive as an independent country. If furlough etc hadn't been available here the damage would have been immensely worse than it has been and Sturgeon must know this, she has heaped pressure on Westminster to extend furlough and has made a political mission of making covid restrictions here harder and longer, but without actually having to worry about funding them from Scotgov budget. There is still strong support for Scottish independence but its such a divisive topic the SNP will have to wait till after May elections to push for it again or they risk losing power at Holyrood

No one else is stupid enough or up their own arses as much as the Brits. the main achievement of Brexit has been to make the EU stronger.

Let's hope that NI gets reunited with the ROI and that Scotland gets its independence. Gibraltar has already joined Schengen. The Isle of Man if it has any sense will get closer ties with Ireland as well.

Wales and England though -we deserve the shit show we voted for

Really can’t see it from anyone else. I actually think the bigger countries are more likely to have the disconnect and disaffection required. Smaller countries don’t have the disconnect between their ruling elites and popular opinions - although I think the extremes of that in the U.K. are uniquely British. The Spectator is right wing and will emphasise any such, but the Netherlands are now the undisputed biggest trading nation in the EU with the biggest entry port. Italy and Greece might not like either Covid or being the EUs borders wrt a migrant crisis, but they gain from the EUs might. Don’t mistake a bit of grumbling for a uniquely British inability to weigh up pros and cons accurately.

How funny @PicsInRed, I know the author of that article. She’s British (Also a bloody good journo who knows her stuff).

In fairness, there’s a movement for just about everything, just about everywhere. We also have covid deniers, 5G skeptics and heaven knows what else.

Another ill informed genius who thinks we left via a referendum. We left via a Parliamentary vote.

Everyone will watch how UK is handling things after Brexit...
Don't think there are much desire now to go through the same divisive madness the UK went.

Wait till Brexit will start giving back... but people knew exactly what they voted for, right?

France thinks VDL gave too much to the British, there was an interesting news item (world service) on this the other evening.

To be honest, i was amazed the UK got quota and tariff free access plus another few months to sort out financial services, we gave a bit on fishing but so what? its tiny % of our economy.

I believe the paperwork issue will sort itself out over the next months, its not as if UK don't export outside of the EU.

Aside from 2nd home owners and people who take pets to Europe, no one will notice .

The ones that will notice most don't count, at least not in the government's eyes. Food prices will go up, everyone needs food; some will notice more than others.

@PicsInRed another Dutch person here, albeit resident in the UK - the article states very clearly that Dutch Euroscepticism comes from the extreme right. Although the extreme right has representation in parliament (because the Netherlands use PR as a voting system), that doesn't mean they are a powerful movement. The PVV has been a waning force for some time, and the Forum voor Democratie (aka Racist Misogynist Nazi Wannabes Who Use Big Words To Make Them Seem Respectable) are beset with the kind of in-fighting that is the norm for extreme right parties the moment they get a sniff of power.

Look at the mainstream parties and you won't see a lot of movement towards Nexit. But I suppose even Brexiteers are entitled to a bit of wishful thinking.

The EU will likely pass legislation to ban referenda in any member state. You can join but you can never leave. Like a fish trap.

@TerryHearn

The EU will likely pass legislation to ban referenda in any member state. You can join but you can never leave. Like a fish trap.

There is a song in there somewhere.

@TerryHearn

The EU will likely pass legislation to ban referenda in any member state. You can join but you can never leave. Like a fish trap.

I don't think you understand how the EU works, Terry. Member states have this thing called 'sovereignty'.

You missed the joke. Sorry.

If anyone goes I think it is more likely to be one of the Eastern European countries, Hungary or Poland maybe. At the moment they are getting too many benefits from membership, but as the costs of Covid and the loss of the UK payments start to bite, membership might seem a less attractive proposition. We've all seen that a party which appeals to nationalist sentiments can sway a decision.