Got Brexit Done. So who's next?

[PicsInRed]

The greatest fear of the EU in giving the UK any sort of a "deal" upon exit was that other states would begin to see leaving as a feasible option.

Regardless of whether you believe Brexit will be negative, positive or neutral, it is now possible to leave - and with a deal.

I think that Italy and Greece will see a resurgence of exit sentiments - particularly after what happened to Italy during the pandemic. Possibly also Scotland - which the EU may allow to join now simply to make other leavers think carefully about their regions e.g. Catalonia.

Who do you think will be next to hold a referendum? Or do you think the EU will now pursue closer legal ties than ever e.g. the posited one Euro army?

Well our referendum was hardly a sweeping majority, so I strongly suspect that any other country would put in place sensible mechanisms.

The UK will now fall apart.

NI will reunited with the Republic of Ireland , leave the UK and stay in EU.
Scotland will get independance, leave the UK and join the EU.
Leaving England and Wales to squabble.

The UK will cease to exist in a very short time.

I think we put everyone off the idea tbf.

@Iggly

Well our referendum was hardly a sweeping majority, so I strongly suspect that any other country would put in place sensible mechanisms.

Only about 1,270,000 people. A very narrow majority that would struggle to fill a church hall.

@speakout

The UK will now fall apart.

NI will reunited with the Republic of Ireland , leave the UK and stay in EU.
Scotland will get independance, leave the UK and join the EU.
Leaving England and Wales to squabble.

The UK will cease to exist in a very short time.

Scotland don’t have a chance of a referendum for 20 years. If they gained independence they wouldn’t have the means to fund themselves. Not a pot to piss in.

Hungary might actually get themselves chucked out.

Scotland don’t have a chance of a referendum for 20 years. If they gained independence they wouldn’t have the means to fund themselves. Not a pot to piss in.

Wait and see. Scotland has a big enough revenue to run itself.
Water.
Energy.

Getting rid of Hungary and Poland would be a bonus. They aren't net contributors and are rapidly failing to be democracies in any meaningful way.

The EU will likely pass legislation to ban referenda in any member state. You can join but you can never leave. Like a fish trap.

I see your shift has clocked on Terry.
How would the EU passing legislation to ban referenda affect the UK?

If the EU expressed willingness to admit Scotland to the EU, I think a referendum could pass. Scotland would have to join the Euro, but sell that big one to the voters and you sell the rest.

The only question is whether the EU is now willing to admit Scotland.

Scotland don’t have a chance of a referendum for 20 years. If they gained independence they wouldn’t have the means to fund themselves. Not a pot to piss in

If the next Scottish elections see a whitewash of westminster parties, the democratic pressure to grant a vote will be strong.

There are plenty of independent small countries that do very well, Scotland would be no different.

It is of course, possible that Remainers, scenting a possible win for Independence might move to Scotland in anticipation. This might now be easier with working from home popularised by Covid. So someone who currently works in London could catch the train down once a fortnight for a meeting. Who knows, an unlooked for effect maybe?

If the SNP then call an advisory referendum, for which the vote goes say 66:34 then Johnson hasn't a leg to stand on. The Brexit Referendum was advisory and apparently gave an 'overwhelming' mandate at 52%.

I’d move to Scotland in a heartbeat if they got independence and rejoined the EU.

I don’t think any EU nation will look at what we’ve done and want to follow.

Walter Mitty. Are you there? Or have you moved to bonnie Scotland yet?

I love how nobody has raised an objection here to the NI situation and the potential for reunification.

It's either because they don't give a shit about NI or they don't understand NI issues and would rather it just went away.

I think with NI there is a mechanism for unification which enough unionists will support as a way of permanent alignment with the EU and the benefits of membership. What happens in the interim is still worrying as Irish Sea border checks increasingly come under Unionist scrutiny.

That's the thing @Jason118 , as a supporter of reunification, obviously I welcome the abandonment of NI by GB. But I'm not so naive as to think it is straightforward or without soul searching for the unionist community. It's pretty bloody disgraceful how they have been treated by the Conservative and (supposedly) Unionist Party.
I hope NI is a successful Freeport type set up which may or may not decide on reunification in 4 years when the Protocol is up for renewal. And of course that depends on Ireland also voting in a referendum for it. Emotionally an easy decision; financially less so. But sometimes sovereignty is worth it, eh?

bellinisurge - I think it's both. Most people in England don't give a shit, and there is a massive lack of knowledge about what went on in NI during The Troubles. The is the memory of IRA bombing campaigns in Great Britain but IMO little attempt was made to provide full information about why it was all happening.

For me the GFA was the thing which clinched my Remain vote, so before someone comes on and says that it's not all people in England I am fully aware of that.

Yes, it's easy to be dispassionate from here in England, it is much more personal and difficult to come to terms with for the unionist community (he says, trying really hard not to sound patronising)

It's vile really. All this noise about why Scotland can't have a vote on it's sovereignty as promised (the referendum result was said to stand for a generation unless something changed- something has changed). All this bollocks about we leave as a Union and not how the constituent parts of that union voted.
All the delay to getting Brexit done which was almost entirely about NI.
And it has been left still, in effect, part of the EU because English nationalists don't give a shit.

I thought getting Brexit done was all about the wealthy still enjoying their tax havens and making sure that the NHS was taken over by US big pharma and destroyed. I agree, English Nationalists don't give a shit.

@TerryHearn

The EU will likely pass legislation to ban referenda in any member state. You can join but you can never leave. Like a fish trap.

I see what you did there ! I got the joke atleast .. like a fish trap

I think that UK will next propose a referendum to be identified as a separate planet and distance itself from planet Earth, so it can separate itself from tricky issues like climate change and world wars.

It’s possible I suppose. In my view Brexit makes other countries less likely to go, not more. I suspect it was a big shock and there is some evidence that the Commission will and has been reeled in by the member states. The UK population was not alone in finding some aspects of the Commission’s expansionism and the changing philosophy from economic trading co-operation to full political and economic union concerning.
I am no Brexiteer and wish strongly that it hadn’t happened. However, we need to make the best of it now. Some of the comments above also imply that there were no legitimate reasons to be wary of the EU. I don’t think that’s reality. There was and is genuine corruption. The accounts are never signed off. There is a lot of them and us with Civil servants enjoying all sorts of tax breaks etc. In many areas we did get less than we put in as a nation. I don’t think these outweigh the good things, but I understand that others might ... I think it folly to dismiss these people as all being gullible fools.