What is the govts motivation?

[notevenat20]

Could anyone pro Brexit/Tory please explain the govts motivation at the moment please.

Normally politicians either act in the interests of the country or themselves. I don’t understand how having no deal with the EU is good for either. Why does it benefit Johnson if there is chaos and extra costs for UK business? I can see he might blame it all on covid but wouldn’t it have been better for him if he had arranged deals that helped the UK and then told us all what a success Brexit was? I am confused.

Answers from amateur or profession political scientists welcome too of course.

Fwiw, my belief is that Johnson finds it fun breaking things and insulting the grown ups, and the rest of the government support him because they think he’s magic and beloved by most voters so they can stay in power. None of them do thinking. I am not pro-Brexit btw.

Interesting question.
Am failing to see any reasons why at the moment. But there must be some motivation- however selfish.

I think in anything there are winners and losers. There were a lot of wealthy people who were pro-leave. I assume they are going to profit as individuals. I assume they 'pay' johnson. They may not even be british

The moment boris won the election with such a large majority no deal was the only possible outcome because.

Europe cannot have brexit being viewed as a success

And

Boris has the political capital to withstand the effects of a no deal in the short term

It suits both parties politically at the moment to leave without a deal.

Their motivation is because they are thick as pigshit🤷🏼‍♀️ and don’t care about the average person. But that’s nothing new for a Conservative government.

Let's look at who will do well out of leaving without any agreement on trade:

Anyone whose hedge fund has bet against the pound (ie invested in the expectation that the pound to fall) will do well. The term disaster capitalism is new to me but what I have read sounds plausible.

Anyone who might fall foul of the EU's increasing sophistication at anti tax avoidance may prefer to be beyond their rules. I would include well connected individuals who are confident of getting significant government support for research and development, both as actual grants and as tax breaks.

Anyone whose business considers health and safety legislation as a burden may find the government willing to listen to their pleas to allow a harsher regime for the work force.

Lots of groups were given assurances that they would be OK, with support from the government eg Japanese car manufacturers may actually find that this kind of support is not after all available.

The winners will be from the very, very rich elite, a vanishingly small number of people. Very few of those who actually voted leave will in fact be better off.

Disaster capitalism.

A small number of very rich will do well from a no trade deal, these individuals have made previous donations to the Tories.

I am concerned about the level playing field. It is completely speculation but I am wondering if the Tories will erode workers rights under the guise of getting the economy up and running post covid. If we see high levels of unemployment workers are more likely to take on jobs with poor pay, benefits and poor working conditions. Zero hour contracts only became common after the previous recession.

Right now I think Johnson is in a horrible bind, which explains the fact that the deadline keeps being pushed back at a time when a government serious about no deal would be addressing the nation about how to prepare.

No deal is a really, really big deal and the government are scared. I don't think they intended to finish up here - while I certainly agree that there are disaster capitalists ready to pounce like vultures in a no deal scenario, I don't swallow the conspiracy theories that suggest this was Johnson's strategy all along. In fact I think the whole of the Brexit debacle comes down to a complete lack of strategic thinking. Johnson & co are relatively good at tactical manoeuvring, ie making decisions that confer a short term advantage (that can be sold as "world beating" to client journalists) - but tactical decisions, like the last minute cave-in on the withdrawal agreement, can lead you up blind alleys. For all her mistakes, at least Theresa May understood this.

Johnson's problem now is that no deal will be a disaster (quite how disastrous is hard to predict - we know what the likely worst case scenario looks like, but not what the worst worst case scenario is). But at the same time a deal will please literally no one. Certainly not the Brexit shaggers on the back benches, but nor will it please other natural Tory party supporters such as businesses and farmers (they may be relieved to get a deal, but they will still have to wade through red tape to continue exporting). And of course it won't please the >50% of the electorate which now thinks Brexit was a bad idea.

I certainly don't believe that Johnson planned to end up in this situation. He has made a series of bad bets, and now the chickens are coming home to roost.

Anyone whose hedge fund has bet against the pound (ie invested in the expectation that the pound to fall) will do well.

Interestingly, there was a film about the last global recession that came out on Netflix, and disaster capitalists bet against the pound back then and made a packet. I think these types of people will always find a way to profit out of bad situation.

The super rich will be insulated from whatever happens

and disaster capitalism

You will hear all the usual rubbish about disaster capitalism which you should ignore. No-one is capable of creating a disaster for the sole purpose of benefiting from it. Some people do benefit from it as an unintended consequence.
It's like saying the Chinese created Covid so they could sell face masks. Extremely unlikely to be the case.

I really do wonder about people on these boards! Whither some leavers want a no deal or not or might benefit from it in some obscure way is beside the point. We are coming to the very end of a long negotiation with the EU who don't want to give an inch. We have to show we will not give in to their demands, especially their ridiculous demands over fishing in our waters. The crux is for us to want our own elected representations to negotiate fishing rights with our neighbours as Norway have done for years, for some this is the whole point of Brexit. The EU have to know that we are prepared to walk away so they will have no access to our waters at all otherwise they will never move their position.

The EU will not give an inch on access to their markets.
Entirely reasonable.
They said as much in 2016
but the UK government never paid attention

trashing the whole UK economy for the sake of 12,000 fishermen
is insane

If you resign membership of a gym
they stop letting you in the door and using their facilities

why would resigning membership of the EU be any different?

How is a comparison with Norway valid when, although outside the EU, is in the EEA and Schengen? Therefore taking a more co-operative stance than the UK wants to do.

Just reminding people that sane countries have rock solid trade deals with the EU
boingboing.net/2011/03/12/venn-diagram-illustr.html

Interesting thread and I’ve been pondering the same. I’m bored bored bored of the whole thing and want to stop bloody hearing about it. But it’s also so incredibly important I find myself desperate to learn the latest as there are huge repercussions either way.

As a non fish eater the focus on fishing is baffling as much as it’s fascinating.

And such a good point about the government not saying anything to the country beyond “be ready” as if that’s any use.

@Applesonthelawn

You will hear all the usual rubbish about disaster capitalism which you should ignore. No-one is capable of creating a disaster for the sole purpose of benefiting from it. Some people do benefit from it as an unintended consequence. It's like saying the Chinese created Covid so they could sell face masks. Extremely unlikely to be the case.

You don't understand how disaster capitalism works do you?

And it is nothing like saying the Chinese created covid in order to sell face masks.
It's much bigger than that. It is shorting financial markets and profiting off them. It has happened at the time of the last financial crash that I know of and is documented. It has probably happened many many times before by various hedge fund managers. Just the last financial crash has been largely documented and as I said above, a film was released on Netflix about it. The film is called The Big Short.

@Corcory

I really do wonder about people on these boards! Whither some leavers want a no deal or not or might benefit from it in some obscure way is beside the point. We are coming to the very end of a long negotiation with the EU who don't want to give an inch. We have to show we will not give in to their demands, especially their ridiculous demands over fishing in our waters. The crux is for us to want our own elected representations to negotiate fishing rights with our neighbours as Norway have done for years, for some this is the whole point of Brexit. The EU have to know that we are prepared to walk away so they will have no access to our waters at all otherwise they will never move their position.

Norway's agreement is not comparable to what the UK is trying to do. Norway has been discussed to death over the last 4 years..... what is hard to grasp at this stage?

@Woahisme

And it is nothing like saying the Chinese created covid in order to sell face masks. It's much bigger than that. It is shorting financial markets and profiting off them. It has happened at the time of the last financial crash that I know of and is documented. It has probably happened many many times before by various hedge fund managers. Just the last financial crash has been largely documented and as I said above, a film was released on Netflix about it. The film is called The Big Short.

35 years experience in financial markets, but I'm sure you know more about it because you've seen The Big Short.

Well then you would know how people profit out of shit situations, wouldn't you Apple? Its well documented.

Here's the motivation for Brexit:

Making money out of a bad situation is not a bad thing, e.g. Chinese mask producers, The Big Short (which is not about shorting the pound as you state above, and not about creating a bad situation for people either - it was about recognising unsustainability in the valuation of asset backed securities).

Deliberately creating a bad situation that will damage many people just so that you can make money would a very bad thing for a government official (or anyone) to do. But that's not what is happening.