Westminstenders: What the winds bring

[RedToothBrush]

The next few weeks are crucial. Eu talks, covid handling, the US election and any other unexpected events (its nearly November, lets face it will probably be the weather).

It feels a little like the car crash in slow motion is about to hit the wall of reality. I guess that just means all there is left to do is to brace for impact.

Interesting to see how the Serco iteration of Track and Trace didn't get a mention...

Tomorrow's Sunday Times - big story

twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1322646591010971649?s=20

So, I'm confused having read the BBC page. Can my Mum still look after my kids whilst I work? It's says you can leave home to care for others, but doesn't go in to more specifics than that. I guess looking after children is allowed?

@ListeningQuietly, you say upthread that dentists will close but I can’t find any official confirmation. This is really important for me as I have a much needed appointment on Friday. So can you tell me the source of this, please?

Zebra
I too have dentist booked
and i'll be pissed if its cancelled

pissed off

Honeysuckle I'm pretty sure arrangements like yours for childcare are not affected.

Guidance (for now) available here: www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november#contents

Thanks both. So, the childcare section says

Parents are able to form a childcare bubble with another household for the purposes of informal childcare. As above, some households will also be able to benefit from being in a support bubble, which allows single adult households to join another household.

I assume that means it's ok? Mum doesn't live alone so she can't be in a support bubble but this sounds like a childcare bubble is different.

So damn complicated and made more irritating that we're in the South West so currently low infection rate.

www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from-5-november#meeting-with-family-and-friends

I remain unbelievably angry
squid and other medics will not be helped by this shit
but many others will be critically damaged
so, so badly thought out

LQ don't worry garden centres and ikea will be able to stay open...

@RedToothBrush

LQ don't worry garden centres and ikea will be able to stay open...

RTB If I did not know you were (a) a good person (b) joking I'd hit you

I have a very distressed university student child at the other end of the country
who I will probably collect this week
fuck any rules
and am facing more months of family financial meltdown
great

Was going to see Dgd on 21 St now we can't. Listening quietly💐

I'm certainly rather dubious that four weeks will be enough with schools open.

It's credible that R is 0.25 higher with schools open (as per PHE) - and that means you have to do an awful lot of heavy lifting elsewhere to get below 1.

In France we have just had a 2 week school holiday. Higher education has also been on holiday for one week (universities) or 2 weeks (lycée-based HE courses).

Growth in case numbers has fallen sharply in big cities in the last 4-5 days - still growing, but slowly, looks like a developing plateau effect. We don't know why, but a credible argument is that with schools closed, measures short of a lockdown enable you to reduce R to around 1.

Schools go back tomorrow, so in about 10 days we will see whether this hypothesis has something in it.

The second lockdown here is slightly less restrictive and won't be as well respected = very dubious that it will get cases down from 50k to 5k in 4 weeks as Macron hopes. In fact I am not sure that's possible on any timescale with schools open - even if you were to physically lock everyone who isn't a pupil, a teacher or a healthcare or care professional in their homes.

I can't see them keeping numbers down with schools open in France.
Nothing has been put in place to prevent spread of Covid in schools beyond mask wearing.

And the decision to keep prépas open while universities shut is tone deaf and typical of a government currently voting through major HE reforms that will kill off the ailing French public university system.

I've been waiting 6 months for a work laptop because mine is 8yrs old and really struggling to cope since I had to update the OS to install what was needed for online learning. I've been told the original order was cancelled and now my name is on a list for an order to be submitted in December. So I may get a laptop in about March...

The small business I'm involved with was just starting to pick up again to nearly breaking even after losing money since reopening in July. It's run out of warehouse. We installed a CO2 monitor. Thoroughly ventilated. All the other precautions. As Covid secure as you could make a business. Now it has to close again.

No word on whether we get a mortgage holiday along with our lockdown this time around. Even if one were announced, our landlord would be spitting nails on his lack of rental income.

An effective TTT system would've been able to more precisely tell us how and where cases were transmitted. You get the feeling that No 10's initial panicked response to Covid turned into seeing it as 'what a fantastic business opportunity to give mates some well paid government job and for our friends to get rich off lucrative government contracts' (aka taxpayer money).

It seems that after decades of pretending to espousing fiscal prudence and minimal government, these 3rd way Tories are taking government borrowing and tax payers money as revenue streams for their mates to whole new levels.

LQ i can only survive using black humour at this point.

I've become a gardener this year (as was the plan way back in December before this crisis even materialised), I adore Christmas and much to DH's frustration I love Ikea.

However even though they may remain open and I could go, i regard them as now off limits to any sane person. I have no intention in joining a bored zombie slouch around either, as I fear its a recipe for disaster at this point. Especially as anyone still doing those things past Thursday is more of a risk taker than I'm comfortable with.

We decided last week prior to any rumour of an English Lockdown that as of this weekend we were home for the duration and we were fully returning to Zoom. And that's it until probably the spring now in so far as we can avoid contact with people.

DS has had his hair cut. The Christmas shopping is all but done and the kids presents are all wrapped, packed and posted. Christmas dinner is on order. The Brexit shopping plan is largely sorted or in planned progress. Santa has been busy with early plans and wrapping to ensure covid safe delivery and becoming a super spreader. I have cherry infused brandy in the fridge. I am spent up and done. Tbh I'm done with all the insanity and the only thing left to do is watch it all unfold and unravel in a hideously predictable reason.

I don't blame you for picking up a uni child.

The guidance contains a clause that should bother students - arrangements for the end of term will be announced at a later date. They will have to be tested / quarantined or will not be able to return home for Christmas at all.

But i also stress that there is an exemption in the rules for prevention of harm to an individual. And for people to keep this in mind over the next few weeks and months.

I know a lot of people really in a bad place right now. If you are concerned for the welfare of anyone you are within the law to assist them / visit them. I have already seen a lot of threads about the tier rules along these lines about mixing for legitimate care and support reasons because people don't fully understand the law. Its troubling.

So do what you need to. And rant and rave as you need. Its past the point where anyone can do anything different and where normal rules apply as far as im concerned.

Rugby against Italy kicked off at 4.45, so shit show with shit slides was pushed back to accommodate I reckon.

These are the people running the country during a pandemic. Fucking terrifying.

I'm certainly rather dubious that four weeks will be enough with schools open.

I'm not certainly dubious. I'm certain it won't get cases low enough in either England or France to get either of us through the depths of winter.

England will in all probability stretch it until the week before Christmas in the end. Then that week will be abject chaos. Tbf if we have any degree of reopening before Christmas it will be adject chaos but i do think the government will most likely attempt at least a week break.

If only so they can go and have the Christmas they want.

Ugh, Gove has just been on Sky News quite merrily stating that they'll extend the lockdown of the numbers aren't good enough after 4 weeks then they'll be extending the lockdown. If this turns into 4x4 week lockdown again, I'm seriously considering running away.

Sorry, that's a bit garbled, but you get my meaning, and frustration!

Well AFAIK I (67, heart condition), will still be expected to teach up to 12 non socially distanced adults for 3.5 days at a time, 9 - 4, working at least half the time on computers so I have to get within 1m of them to do it effectively. My perfectly reasonable plans for blended learning to reduce contact time were kyboshed. Happily I have a week’s leave to think things over but despite normally not being anxious - I tend to the “what will be, will be” camp - I might well end up being signed off for medical reasons for the rest of the term. Which will be a huge problem for my employer, serve them right.

A normal or normal-ish Christmas was never on the cards. They’ve had plenty of time to think through and actuate making it not as bad as it’s going to be. They just didn’t want to be the Grinch that stole Xmas, or do any real work.

The lie that it’s a choice between bad COVID consequences and bad other consequences needs to be dispelled. The places that handled COVID better have had less economic destruction.

They are just callous, ignorant snd lazy really.

@borntobequiet

Well AFAIK I (67, heart condition), will still be expected to teach up to 12 non socially distanced adults for 3.5 days at a time, 9 - 4, working at least half the time on computers so I have to get within 1m of them to do it effectively. My perfectly reasonable plans for blended learning to reduce contact time were kyboshed. Happily I have a week’s leave to think things over but despite normally not being anxious - I tend to the “what will be, will be” camp - I might well end up being signed off for medical reasons for the rest of the term. Which will be a huge problem for my employer, serve them right.

You will not be alone.

Its a consequence of poor management of the crisis.

People can only do so much before they break. This will break a lot of people.

And yet, i dont see much of an alternative. I do wish they would just close the schools for all but key workers simply to get the figures down quickly rather than prolonging the agony. The kids in the most deprieved areas are already disproportionately being sent home by localised closures - and this includes vulnerable kids who may otherwise be in school under a managed closure.

I think I agree about the schools RTB I was keen for them to reopen to get back to some normality for DD, but last half term she had 2 spells at home and there wasn’t one class who didn’t get sent home (Primary). Realistically I don’t think we can get the numbers under control while they are open.