Westminstenders: What the winds bring

[RedToothBrush]

The next few weeks are crucial. Eu talks, covid handling, the US election and any other unexpected events (its nearly November, lets face it will probably be the weather).

It feels a little like the car crash in slow motion is about to hit the wall of reality. I guess that just means all there is left to do is to brace for impact.

Very interesting El País article about aerosol transmission. Don't really understand the UKs stance on masks. Kids at school here in Spain have been wearing them at school since they went back. They've been obligatory everywhere Since June.

Which now makes me wonder if there is actually a way to keep things under control.

You have to get case numbers low enough to enable test and trace, and even that might not be enough to avoid periodic restrictive measures (see: Germany, which I think everyone agrees has put in a good test and trace effort).

The U.K. has never had a lockdown. It has had stay at home orders with fairly wide exemptions and limited enforcement. That's why you never really got cases down.

A lockdown is what France, Spain and Italy had, and it's why you were able to have a fairly normal holiday in France this summer. But we pissed away that progress, partly because people couldn't behave, and partly because the government missed several chances to act earlier.

Mistigri
A couple of my gym friends have houses in France and all have commented that Social distancing just DID NOT HAPPEN when they flew in and out of Nice and Toulouse airports this summer.
At the UK end yes, at the French end absolutely not.
So you do have to wonder

Yes, here in Spain we had one of the strictest lockdowns, no one allowed out, not even kids, for weeks on end. And we got cases well down but the time was squandered and test and trace wasn't ready and we opened up too much too fast.

I think people would care if only the poor were dying.

Of course the families of people dying would care. But no one in power cares about them, so nothing would be done.

And the whole point of Tory economic policies are to ensure there is a steady flow of poor people, so that you can lose a hell of a lot until it affects the rich. And if you can ship in people from abroad as well, you can probably go forever without having to trouble your pretty little head about the poor and their quaint ways.

I appreciate my sledgehammer cynicism may not be for all tastes, but I'd like to have someone take some stories from the past few months to argue against me.

The whole shame of Brexit is that to a certain extent people did have the reading of the situation 100% right. Workers were being shipped in to ensure there were enough to keep costs down. Unfortunately they then managed to totally and utterly miss the donkeys tail of blame.

It may be semantics but we know that test track and trace can work infinitely better than the processes that the government have in place. The fact that it is really shit is widely known and all public trust is gone. This was an interesting piece from the epidemiologist at BRI which goes a long way to explaining why cases are still going up in places that have long been the subject of local lockdown. The virus is raging through three streets and yet people are still not answering their phones or doors to contact tracers, not even local ones, and the local track and trace officials are struggling in the face of widespread belief in conspiracy theories (around 25% of the population in recent surveys) that have been sucked in to fill the void in public messaging www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54666568 (All his diary pieces are interesting - a rare bit of worthwhile reporting of the reality and science on the BBC site)

The government have finally asked the public labs for help but they have the staff but can’t source PCR machines to expand their operation. The Dido labs are hoovering up the machines but nobody competent wants to work in them. To be honest if I was a contact of a case I would of my own volition quarantine (and I am lucky that I can do that - in fact have done it twice already to meet the NHS requirements for surgery) . However would I answer my mobile to a strange number that could be a contact tracer or a robot asking me if I have had an accident recently, probably not

It could scarcely be worse and a reset in terms of the test and trace strategy Focused on local public resources and clear and consistent public messaging would at least bring an incremental improvement, and help Male lockdown more effective because it isn’t making much difference now......

In summer there was unfortunately a big difference between people's behaviour on holiday and at home. Tbh in my bit of France I have been amazed at how well people respected the rules generally.

But as a general rule once someone has had a drink or two, social distancing tends to break down. I've been avoiding restaurants and bars for quite a while but until about a month ago generally felt safe everywhere else.

make

Mind you making all men stay at home, especially the corpulent older ones with illusions of superiority and an inflated sense of entitlement, whilst the women (excepting the ones in the Cabinet) took over might well be a very effective way of keeping cases down.

Total diversion, but I just wanted to share my joy that this popped up in my feed - Led Zeppelins "The Immigrant Song" in - appropriately - (what it is claimed, anyone here care to comment ?) Old Norse.

(finds himself humming "Gaudete" .... )

A couple of my gym friends have houses in France and all have commented that Social distancing just DID NOT HAPPEN when they flew in and out of Nice and Toulouse airports this summer.
At the UK end yes, at the French end absolutely not.

Being pretty much a loyalty card holder at one of the French airports you've named and a frequent traveller through one at "the UK end" my experience has generally been the complete opposite.

DGR
I'll check it with a friend who speaks Norse weird things that are true

How teenagers ended up operating crucial parts of England’s test and trace system

Or the victory of business and privatisation over the welfare of people (both the public and the poor teenagers who end up doing a job they are not trained for).
I’m still at the idea that a job that is supposed to be done by a HCP, someone who has some training in health and science, is now left in the hands of some 18yo. They are taking decisions that can have a major impact on people. They are the ones who are supposed to ensure they have the names of all the people one has seen in the last two weeks. This can impact businesses, work etc.... But apparently a 4 hours training is enough
(That’s not talking about teaching those people how to handle someone who is grieving or panicking, can’t answer questions properly, digress etc etc)

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/28/england-coronavirus-covid-test-and-trace-teenagers

@Emilyontmoor

make

Mind you making all men stay at home, especially the corpulent older ones with illusions of superiority and an inflated sense of entitlement, whilst the women (excepting the ones in the Cabinet) took over might well be a very effective way of keeping cases down.

Did they say that the countries who had the best results were lead by women??

I’m still shock at the idea that a job that is supposed to be done by a HCP, someone who has some training in health and science, is now left in the hands of some 18yo.

Not really sure why. We've seen a slow devaluation in the sector over years. The second the weasely "Healthcare professional" started appearing everywhere (because it's not a protected term) the writing was on the wall. After all, 0% of ATOS and Capita assessments are carried out by anyone with a protected medical qualification.

64 days till the end of Transition

can you bear the suspense

Croydon council on verge of bankruptcy after risky investments

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/29/croydon-council-on-verge-of-bankruptcy-after-risky-investments

www.google.com/amp/s/insidecroydon.com/2020/10/23/council-had-corporate-blindness-and-ignored-warnings/amp/

www.google.com/amp/s/insidecroydon.com/2020/10/29/jenrick-orders-urgent-inquiry-into-unacceptable-council/amp/

Hi All - glad to see most here are in fine fettle, wherever they may be.

Does anyone know what's happening with the Brexit Negs? Asfaik the UK Team are now in Brussels for the continuation of Negotiations.

May I wish all Negotiators well although I do question the wisdom of sticking to Brussels as the current Negotiation Location, given the current Belgian CV19 'crisis'.

I suppose it would have been too difficult for the EU27 to agree a different, more CV19-safe location, in a timely manner.

I still hope a deal will be reached and still think it will happen.

Coco
Lovely headlines
but English local authorities cannot go bankrupt / bust whatever you want to call it.
The law is very very clear.

Croydon council on verge of bankruptcy after risky investments

I may be imagining this, but wasn't there some sort of ruling that councils must consider high-risk schemes (and you can see where this is going) in the name of maximising public funds ? Or am I conflating it with excuses given by big investment firms for shafting investors ?

No they can't technically go bankrupt, they can issue a S114, cut services to the bare statutory minimum and a receiver can be appointed to collect revenues money owed.

None of this is good for local people or services.

They clearly learnt nothing from the 2008 Icelandic bank situation. They have done the same thing with property. The problem ultimately is a lack of central government funding.

www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2018-12-04/councils-borrow-billions-to-buy-real-estate

choco
If you think Icelandic banks have owt to do with Croydon you need to read a LOT more government law !

I know Icelandic banks have nothing to do with Croydon's current situation I was referring to previous problems with councils making risky investments in Icelandic banks in 2008.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/councils-deemed-negligent-over-iceland-banks-1654447.html%3famp

Choco
They all got their 2008 money back

It is estimated they only £1bn of £1.05bn owed which still leaves £50,000,000 unaccounted www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26052949. The money paid back took in some cases 6 years to come back. In that time it was not in the council treasury for use for public services.

If the same happens with the risky property investments, made even more risky by the possibility of inflated property prices falling due to Covid and Brexit, it is the local people who suffer as that money is not available for use on services that help them.

Councils are meant to consider the risks, there is guidance for this and Croydon is not the only council taking these risks. They are borrowing money (taking on debt) to fund these property investments www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2018-12-04/councils-borrow-billions-to-buy-real-estate.

www.cipfa.org/policy-and-guidance/publications/t/treasury-management-in-the-public-services-code-of-practice-and-crosssectoral-guidance-notes-2017-edition-online

www.nao.org.uk/report/local-authority-investment-in-commercial-property/

Anyway back to the rest of the shit show ... Storm Caroline bringing winds this weekend and a tier 2 lockdown for my area.

The gaping hole in the plan is how and where you feed the kids...

@Mistigri, almost everyone brings their own lunch in Ireland, always have.

They can eat in classrooms. Many do this anyway, especially in primary schools.

A big issue in Ireland is transport to school from rural areas. Busing was introduced in the 50s or 60s to ensure nobody had to miss school because of the remoteness of their home.