Westminstenders: What the winds bring

[RedToothBrush]

The next few weeks are crucial. Eu talks, covid handling, the US election and any other unexpected events (its nearly November, lets face it will probably be the weather).

It feels a little like the car crash in slow motion is about to hit the wall of reality. I guess that just means all there is left to do is to brace for impact.

Starmer's direction change is complete.
Good riddance to Corbyn.

@prettyscarybird

Farage back as Trump's warm-up man . Let's hope he has to eat his words

[[https://news.sky.com/video/share-12117456]]

And leaving LBC, was, apparently the last we would ever hear from him.

@GhostofFrankGrimes The Labour party?
No, your Labour Party.

@Jason118

@GhostofFrankGrimes The Labour party? No, your Labour Party.

Broad Church.

I have to hope that after acting decisively on this,
Starmer will be ready to act decisively against the government when it

• evades parliamentary scrutiny
• acts in an almost criminally corrupt manner
• does not protect the lives and rights of citizens

on both COVID and Brexit

TTT
as was done by Taiwan and South Korea without need for lockdown or causing major deaths

Well, sure, but once you have more than a few thousand cases a day TTT hits its limits. Even in France and Germany which now have relatively robust testing and tracing done by local health authorities.

With 50k cases a day (in the U.K.) or 100k (in France) you either have to impose restrictive measures or let people die. That's the brutal truth. You have to choose between giving up some civil liberties and people dying.

The announcement today that campuses will be open for practical lab work is going to cause lots of confusion,

So DS has had an email from his course director saying (I paraphrase) "we don't yet know if you should plan to come back for your exam on Monday".

Lockdown from tomorrow. Students all over France have no idea if they need to stay at their parents' houses (many have gone home for holidays this week) or get on a plane/train to travel back to campus.

At least DD's uni has made a quick and clear decision for which I commend them: campus closed. It's the right and humane decision in the circumstances.

The correct approach to Covid as it unfolded was to assume a vaccine wouldn't be available on demand, and to use the advance warning we had to spent the initial 3 month lockdown researching coping strategies.

Instead we pissed away the three months the same way we pissed away any time we had to prepared for Brexit.

If this shower had been in power in 1940, then WW2 would have ended with the UK jumping as high as Mr. Hitler wanted with 330,000 UK soldiers hostage in Europe.

Mistigri
I'd agree with you if there was evidence that lockdowns were actually reducing the true death rates now.
I see no large countries actually succeeding.
Taiwan and South Korea went in really hard with TTT early so never got to the higher case loads ....

The UK Govt is being spectacularly shit and corrupt
which does not bode well

Then again Trump is trying to stop the WTO appointing the best candidate as its boss
so things could get worse

Sure, re S Korea and Taiwan etc etc but - we are where we are. You don't get to choose from an imaginary starting post. You have to choose between loss of civil liberties or deaths. Your call. There's no magic sugar pill to sweeten this decision.

These public health decisions are hard. They are made a bit easier in countries where there is greater public consent for restrictions on civil liberties outside of national emergencies. This is what allowed for eg South Korea to use digital tracking in a way that western countries find more ethically dubious, or China to prevent Shanghai families from leaving the city during the recent school holidays. Those are the sort of decisions that stop epidemics getting a hold.

Public health decisions are also, paradoxically, easier in countries with weak healthcare systems. If poor people don't have good healthcare insurance, hospitals are less likely to fill up with sick covid+ poor people. Also in these countries people are much more likely to accept lots of deaths, because if your healthcare system is shit, people die unnecessarily all the time anyway.

But we are where we are. In Europe, more lockdown or more deaths. That's the choice governments have to make.

The correct approach to Covid as it unfolded was to assume a vaccine wouldn't be available on demand, and to use the advance warning we had to spent the initial 3 month lockdown researching coping strategies.

It sounds easy but even relatively competent European governments are struggling. France has screwed up badly. Germany still managing to maintain social cohesion and public consent but the second wave is still going to be bad. Is there a big European nation that has done and is still doing well? I think Germany is the last domino to fall.

Not defending the Johnson government at all of course.

@Mistigri

The correct approach to Covid as it unfolded was to assume a vaccine wouldn't be available on demand, and to use the advance warning we had to spent the initial 3 month lockdown researching coping strategies.

It sounds easy but even relatively competent European governments are struggling. France has screwed up badly. Germany still managing to maintain social cohesion and public consent but the second wave is still going to be bad. Is there a big European nation that has done and is still doing well? I think Germany is the last domino to fall.

Not defending the Johnson government at all of course.

You know that pandemic preparation that the UK was praised for until it decided it wasn't needed ? I am willing to bet someone elses livelihood and future that it pretty much had that in as a strategy. Assume you won't get a vaccine, and use the first quarantines and lockdowns to get the metrics on the various factors that will affect spread, treatment, recovery and public risk.

It's the same reason I got "alien invasion" signed off as a valid risk when I was working in DR/BCP. Not because there was any suggestion of an alien invasion. But if there were, you could pretty much work out the office would be closed.

(It's deeply ironic that a lot of BCP/DR plans would have obsessed about having premises available. Which as it turns out was not the problem with Covid)

The biggest problem with the whole Covid flap in the UK has been even before it had started proper, too many people in places of power had decided what they wanted the "after" picture to look like. And Covid - with rather unsporting grace - didn't play ball.

If you like images, then you can forgive Christopher Wren for starting his designs for new London by the light of the 1666 fire - we know how fires work. But it hasn't worked for all the regimes (in hock to their money men) who tried the same with Covid.

@AuldAlliance, the uni where I am teaching (very part time) has mixed provision.
The course is very hands on (and no way to avoid that part) so all those lessons are happening BUT in very small groups and the Uni is providing PPE to teachers AND students.
All the rest is online.

So far there has been no cases in that course across the 3 years.

It can work.

A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/a-room-a-bar-and-a-classroom-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air/ar-BB1atFI1?spot_im_redirect_source=email&spot_im_highlight_immediate=true&spot_im_comment_id=sp_NPDtp3N7_BB18U89I_c_1hKE2H1jfBIhYGewduTbnMoTdj2&utm_spot=sp_NPDtp3N7

A really good article on how Covid is spreading and why the most important part is ventilation.
The example of a classroom and how a lot of pupils will end up been infected after 4 hours in the same class DESPITE the masks (would be even worse wo them) should make us all think.
It’s coming back again to how well the buildings have been designed and looked after. Ancient heating system that recycles air or even worse shared them between classrooms will make a hell of a lot damage.

What happened to Corbyn?!?

A really good article on how Covid is spreading and why the most important part is ventilation

My enforced 3 hour visit to a hospital yesterday (appt was at 9am, got seen at 11 after sitting in a corridor for 2 hours. Out at 12) doesn't really help then ? Especially as 10 years ago Frankie and Bennies were running a pager system where you could fuck off until your table was ready.

In 2020, with everyone and their dog rocking a smartphone, then after check in, why wasn't I able to fuck off outside (it wasn't raining or too windy) and wait for a phone call/text/whatever to go inside for my appointment ??????

If nothing else, the UK publics response to Covid appears to be viewed through the same "no nuance" prism they've been indoctrinated with for years. Everything has to be all or nothing. No realisation that even a 20% reduction in risk is still a 20% reduction in risk.

Not the sort of question I would ask in a less discerning forum but I wonder what effect Covid is having on the overall IQ of the nation ? It would be interesting if in 5 years time there is a shift one way or the other that is too clearly centred around 2020. Will the dim have removed themselves from the population ? Or will they have succeeded in removing the brighter among us ? And what does that mean for the long term future our grandchildren might see ?

@Mistigri

The correct approach to Covid as it unfolded was to assume a vaccine wouldn't be available on demand, and to use the advance warning we had to spent the initial 3 month lockdown researching coping strategies.

It sounds easy but even relatively competent European governments are struggling. France has screwed up badly. Germany still managing to maintain social cohesion and public consent but the second wave is still going to be bad. Is there a big European nation that has done and is still doing well? I think Germany is the last domino to fall.

Not defending the Johnson government at all of course.

You see I’m really wondering if lockdowns (unless it’s a proper full on lockdown like we had in April- May) are the right answer. The U.K. has been in some sort of lo known all throughout. One of my friends has had 3weeks with no lockdown where she could go and meet up with friends/family inside their houses. The area still has high levels of infection. On thé other side, germany has had gyms/restaurants etc... opened for ages. When I went to France in the summer, it was business as usual bar wearing a mask indoors.

So we see all those countries going into lockdown again. Some which are basically doing what the U.K. has been doing well for at least 2 months. And with little success.
I don’t see those measures making a difference.

Track and trace IS an appropriate answer to keep the number down and under control. But when the numbers are too high (like France and the U.K.), it won’t be able to cope.

Which now makes me wonder if there is actually a way to keep things under control. Most of The countries that currently look ok are in the southern Hemisphere, going towards their summer. If this virus has some seasonality (like most/all coronavirus), then they should be in their low time anyway.
Maybe I’m getting pessimistic

DRG I think the info about ventilation will take some time to really trickle through.
I mean this was known in April, albeit for slightly different reasons. I know my dcs school checked their ventilation system during the summer because of that too.

But just as it took ages for the WHO and governments to acknowledge masks were necessary, then that the virus is transmitted through the air, it looks like it will take even more time for them to agree that ventilation is crucial.
Why is a food question. But the cynic in me says that it’s because this would mean ALL BUSINESSES would need to review and probably modify/change their ventilation system. So the measure would not be welcome by any mean.

A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

From 2010 (that's ten years ago, folks)

and (much more interesting)

Notice the elbow bump at 1:02 ....

The unpleasant truth - for some - is that you can't run our society at 110% efficiency and have a healthy society at the same time.

No one would care if it was only the poor and vulnerable that died (or if they did it would be a first).

It's worth remembering that Covid only became a concern when the elite suddenly twigged they were also at risk. At which point Something Had To Be Done.

(For some reason I am reminded of that statue that found itself swimming. If it had been left to the "proper channels" it would still be there in 50 years time)

And the twat Corbyn is still trying to say he is not part of the problem
while wearing a mask under his nose.

FFS the stupid old man should realise that every moment Labour's internal squabbles are on the news
the Tories get away with staying shit

I think people would care if only the poor were dying.
Because the poor usually have the luxury to do all the crap jobs that are essential but extremely low paid. Jobs that none of the better paid workers would be happy to do...

So I suspect there would be less worry about seen them die (which actually we are in some ways seen). But quite a lot of ‘feeling uncomfortable’ afterwards when they realise that some of those better paid workers will have to step in (esp if there are less jobs to go around).

Oe they might suddenly say that actually immigrants are welcome (to do all the shit jobs they dint want). Or is that what is happening anyway?

I’m getting confused