Westminstenders: The Tunnel or Bridge

[RedToothBrush]

Apparently negotiations are in the black hole of the EU tunnel or should that be on the back of the fantasy of the Boris Bridge?

Another week closer to complete meltdown.

I'm guessing that our world beating customs solution will be based on blackboard and chalk.

@Clavinova

BigChocFrenzy

Just to point out that my extract came from the Resolution Foundation (your link/unemployment/the Guardian).

... No problem Sometimes theory and practice differ

Also, Merkel announced several weeks ago that these furlough / Kurzarbeit payments would last 21 months,
although hopefully they won't be needed that long for many

That gives security to employees and helps keep normally viable businesses in place to resume after this crisis ends

Louise Why do you not turn your attention to the people who are actually culpable for this economic damage. It isn’t the waitresses and bar staff on minimum wage is it? Plenty of examples around the world of how you control the virus, save lives and protect the economy. If we are headed into a lot of debt it is because the government turned it’s back on the world class public sector expertise and skills in testing and tracing and handed control of the virus to a load of useless Tory faithful cowboys who don’t even have business expertise, let alone in public health. We were ranked second in the world for our public health resources and capabilities but even Vietnam, ranked 29th, have done a better job of controlling the virus.

@Clavinova

BigChocFrenzy At least it's misleading for takehome pay

According to gym buddies, consensus is their takehome pay after deductions for tax, unemployment insuance, health insurance, old age insurance etc leaves them at ~90% takehome pay

That would include wages from their employers as well - not just government money?

... yes, business pays part of the salary - as in the UK scheme, I think ?

That does mean that if a business just decides to close permanently, then employees lose their jobs

However, mandatory unemployment insurance - which is a (hefty !) mandatory deduction for employees - pays out a % of salary for up to 12 months, not a flat amount

Also, this amount is independent of savings - having a million Euros in the bank would make no difference, because it is insurance-based.

Businesses atm receive grants if their outgoings exceed income because of these payments,
or if their income has gone below 70% of previous year

Much as the World Wars saw the role of women in society change beyond recognition, this pandemic looks set to reshape the way we work.

Not entirely DGR. WW2 brought a lot of women into the labour market but they were pushed out smartish when the war ended to become good little housewives again.

Speaking of government spending, here's a fun fact: it costs £1M/day to keep the police Airwave network running, as it is past end of life and the new Emergency Services Network is delayed. (I invite you all to google the story in The Register or any of the Parliamentary accounts sessions ESN has had to account to.)

Out of curiosity Louise, are you keen for the police and other emergency services to have no specialist, secure comms at all because the money to manage this situation needs to be prioritised at the expense of other new initiatives, or can you stretch to see why choosing to prioritise a type of spend might be beneficial to the big picture?

Much as the World Wars saw the role of women in society change beyond recognition, this pandemic looks set to reshape the way we work. I agree @DGRossetti
There seemed to be echoes of the post WWII women returning to the home with the ‘get back to the office’ push. It might woff RT k in the short term, but ultimately once things change it’s only a matter of time.

That should say ‘it might work in the short term’

@Peregrina

Much as the World Wars saw the role of women in society change beyond recognition, this pandemic looks set to reshape the way we work.

Not entirely DGR. WW2 brought a lot of women into the labour market but they were pushed out smartish when the war ended to become good little housewives again.

But things didn't return to women not having the vote, not being able to own property, etc etc

So two steps forward and one back ?

Although if things carry on as they are, I can see women being in a much worse position when I die than when I was born. Certainly in the UK and US.

Covid is like a hurricane that flattened the more flimsy edifices of our society which were probably tettering anyway.

It would be the work of a complete and utter nation of morons to put all their efforts into rebuilding the wooden shack (because "it's cheap") rather than looking at a more resilient solution.

I give you - the UK.

@Peregrina yes you’re right, but the change came eventually and the experience of mothers/grandparents in the wars would have had a delayed impact (among other things, not least education)

Random OT question for @DGRossetti
DH asks if the Fortean is worth buying or is it all just tattoos and this could mean ?

even Vietnam, ranked 29th, have done a better job of controlling the virus.

Very aggressive action though - Vietnam locked down villages of 10,000 people for 20 days after 6 positive cases;

www.bangkokpost.com/learning/easy/1856904/vietnam-locks-down-10-000-people-over-coronavirus

@BigChocFrenzy

The rule on MN is:

when someone is doing you a big favour, you pay them in full
e.g. all the posts that CFs should pay petrol for regular lifts

This is a compulsory "favour"

So 80% is already a compromise, which takes account of lower costs for transport, office clothes, meals out etc, but still leaves many people a bit out of pocket

I confess to being unaware of this rule, though it does make good sense. In this case, surely the person who is being done the favour is the person who continues to receive the 80% of their wages while they are not working?

@ListeningQuietly

Random OT question for *@DGRossetti* DH asks if the Fortean is worth buying or is it all just tattoos and this could mean ?

Depends on your tastes, I guess. It's merely a monthly roundup of weird and interesting stories from around the world, with features discussing the odd - but generally not advancing a theory.

Last months (for example) had a pretty thorough debunking of an "alien" sighting from the 70s.

Generally I find it tends to irritate people who can't distinguish between reporting on a subject, and advancing an agenda. Probably because the UK media actually works in reverse by advancing an agenda under the cloak of "reporting". (As one of our number so clearly demonstrates).

After all, I can cast a horoscope from a printed Ephemeris (somewhere I still have the blank sheets from the 80s). Doesn't mean I don't think it's a load of old poppycock though. (Actually I believe that astrology does have some value, but that's for another thread ...).

Along with being able to quote vast chunks of the Bible, which is also a load of old bollocks - as are all religions.

Emily makes a really good point. I am in agreement with her (I think, I'm sure she'll correct me if not) that I don't want the high street in every town and city to become one succession of chains to a greater extent than it is already.

This is why I'm entirely happy to have been supporting furloughed workers for 6 months, and I'm happy to continue doing so at a reduced rate for longer if necessary.

I'd be equally happy to support hospitality businesses I actually use and have a relationship with already on the basis of what I "would" have spent with them in ordinary circs as a gift to keep them going, but no-one seems to have established such a scheme at scale that I know of. That's essentially my view of the furlough, just on a much larger scale, again happy to support it. The questions I'm raising are, when do business owners contribute? when does the scheme stop? and when are some jobs judged to be unviable to support?

To answer Singasonga spending on our Police, other emergency services and the military needs to be very highly prioritised IMO, since what they do constitutes the first duty our government owes to citizens. I have always been in favour of hugely increased spending in these area, in ordinary times as well as COVID or post-COVID.

Emily makes a really good point. I am in agreement with her (I think, I'm sure she'll correct me if not) that I don't want the high street in every town and city to become one succession of chains to a greater extent than it is already.

As a way of bringing consumers and producers together, the High Street is dead. It died years ago.

That's not to say there isn't a role for the physical space it occupied and occupies. But retailing ain't it.

Before all this flap about Covid, I would have hesitantly suggested that more niche and artisan outlets might find some space - home brew, and hobbiest supplies. But from my personal experience they were one of the first areas to go online anyway. And whilst I miss popping in for a chat that might have led to the odd sale of a pack of yeast, it's no hardship to order online.

I don't think cities are going anywhere anytime soon. There is a reason we call it "civilisation" after all . But what goes on where and how are certainly all up for grabs.

Even Richard II was unable to legislate away the economic tsunami that the Black Death unleashed. And he was a real king. Not a King Rat like Boris.

Clav more aggressive than releasing people from hospitals untested into care homes and killing 2000?

Can you distinguish between the “aggressive” infection control measures that control the virus so that the minimum number of people are affected for the minimum amount of time and the Libertarian approach that kills the maximum number of people and results in maximum economic damage.

I know people who have been living with those aggressive measures in Hong Kong. If you test positive you go straight to a Covid ward where you self monitor and if you develop symptoms you are moved to a treatment ward. You are not released until you have two negative tests. All your contacts are rounded up and transported to a quarantine facility, fairly basic and some Siracha sauce is a must to cheer up the dismal food, where you stay for 14 days, tested daily and only released after a negative test. Nobody I know thinks it is aggressive even if they have ended up bored in the Lady Macclehose holiday village because it has minimised their risk and means that only 105 people have died in a city of 7m.

DGR
We subscribed to the Fortean for about 20 years but gave up when it got very repetitive.
Night try to get hold of a few recent copies and have a look.

Louise
Define unviable ?
Just that at the moment theatres and orchestras and bands and cinemas and the like are closed
not because they are unviable
but because of the rule of 6 which is totally arbitrary

Emilyontmoor

I know that Keir Starmer wanted us to follow countries such as South Korea (tracking credit card purchases etc.) - probably why he's fallen out of favour with the left of his party.

I know people who have been living with those aggressive measures in Hong Kong. If you test positive you go straight to a Covid ward where you self monitor and if you develop symptoms you are moved to a treatment ward. You are not released until you have two negative tests. All your contacts are rounded up and transported to a quarantine facility, fairly basic and some Siracha sauce is a must to cheer up the dismal food, where you stay for 14 days, tested daily and only released after a negative test. Nobody I know thinks it is aggressive

And that would be fine over here if someone discovers that ethnic minorities/migrant workers/those in safe Labour seats were disproportionately "rounded up"?

Louise Yes I think we agree on that much but the local leaders (and not just oop north, also here in the soft south where we are also on the verge of lockdown) are highlighting what is needed for their local economy but the government is stubbornly ploughing on with their one size fits all approach.

Actually our shop local initiative did try to bring together small business owners and their customers during lockdown. There was a big push to make it personal, to introduce us to the business owners as real people and also foster ways they could still provide a service, with deliveries, collection, home kits etc. There is now a catalogue of local businesses that came through the door and highlights how we can help each other when it happens again. Not a subsidy scheme as such but it certainly helped it become a challenge the community could respond to.

I thought Cineworld has just closed down hundreds of locations, hopefully temporarily for precisely the reason that they are unviable with the current levels of custom? Vue similarly according to these

www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/08/weve-literally-killed-james-bond-cineworld-final-day-screenings

www.theguardian.com/film/2020/oct/08/we-will-survive-we-just-need-movies-says-vue-cinema-boss

They say the long term viability of the industry is there, but to coin a phrase "they would say that, wouldn't they?" These are businesses that aren't closing because the law is telling them they must, they are closing because the people who own them aren't making what they deem to be enough money to continue trading. I can well believe that if there is a single person in a cinema screening as mentioned in one of the articles but holy hell these are supposed to be creative industries....

It must be possible to social distance a viable number of people in a large Cinema to make it worth showing a film, then the job is to encourage people to come watch it, a job these folks are clearly failing at.

Define "viable"... OK then here goes...

1. Does [your business] expect to return to trading levels exceeding 80% of total trading undertaken in 2018/19 upon general administration of a vaccine for COVID-19 to the UK population? Y/N

2. Will [your business] be able to return to that level of trading within 6 months following the administration of said vaccine? Y/N

2 yeses = "Viable"

Great to hear that Emily. I can't help thinking that smaller villages and towns have been better at such schemes than big cities (like the one I live in the outer 'burbs of)

And that would be fine over here if someone discovers that ethnic minorities/migrant workers/those in safe Labour seats were disproportionately "rounded up"?

You may recall that when we did have a working test trace and quarantine process it was disproportionately rounding up skiiers, business people and people returning from China. Indeed in cities with large BME communities now badly hit like Bradford, the highest death rates are still in the surrounding affluent, and overwhelmingly white, towns and villages where people returning from ski trips in February and March spread it to their elderly neighbours. So if we had followed the standard public health response and closed our borders, built on our public resources to have effective test trace and quarantine then the virus would never have penetrated as it did into our most deprived areas and care homes. Not one death in a Hong Kong care home. The figure I gave above is of course 20000 but in Hong Kong even 2000 unnecessary deaths amongst the elderly would be morally unthinkable. Confucian values

Having said that if it had do you really think that BME communities are as keen to kill their Grannies as the Tory government seem to be?