Westminstenders: PreGrades (Minority Report comes to the UK)

[RedToothBrush]

In Aug 2020, London, DC's prototype 'PreGrades' launched from the education department stops plebs before they go to university, reducing the social mobility rate to zero percent. Social mobility is predicted using specialized mutated humans, called "Teachers", who "predict" grades by marking shit lots of course work and exams over a period of years. Would-be social climbers are knocked down in a computer algorithm which distorts reality and hits the disadvantaged hardest. Central government is on the verge of adopting the controversial program nationwide by applying it in all departments from the DWP, the Home Office, the Department of Health and the Department of Justice to predict benefit fraud, getting sick asylum seeking and crime before it occurs.

DC's vision of the future is based on excellence being genetically ingrained into the elite but he must sell this vision to the unsuspecting public in a series of public votes which rely on the idea of the 'undeserving'. Little do they know that they too will be the victims of this plan until a mysterious bug appears and only the wealthy and well connected are able to get hold of adequate PPE and they are no longer able to buy bog roll nor retire to Spain as they had previously and endless queues for pizza form near Kent.

Looks like universities have set appeals deadlines between 31st Aug and 7th September for some students. So this is going to rumble on until at least then. Thursday is going to be a real test...

... Pressure for a u turn is growing.

This is this morning:

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
There's a lot of anger on the Tory benches about A-level grades

Robert Syms, Tory MP for Poole:

'People voted for Boris Johnson to run country, not an algorithm

'In Scotland they got themselves in a hole then got out

'We seem to have gone headfirst in and are still digging'

It's quite something when Tory MPs are openly calling for govt to follow Scottish example and use predicted grades

Here's Robert Syms again: 'There is real risk of Tory MPs going on the warpath

'In the current situation, we ought to err on the side of allowing grade inflation'

Tory MPs say A-level grading chaos is undermining party's levelling up agenda

David Davis: 'It plainly undermines levelling up agenda

'There will be a lot of youngsters in red will seats and other seats who will say this is the opposite of a level up agenda. We may pay a price'

Iain Duncan Smith, former conservative leader:

'All of this should have been set against the simple test of how this works for the overall priority of improving the standard of life for those in the lower income group?

'We have got caught in this bureaucracy'

This quote from Robert Syms, the Tory MP for Poole, is an indicator of discontent on backbenches:

'There is real risk of Tory MPs going on the warpath

'The govt is defending Ofqual, I'm not sure it should be

'It should be on the side of hard-working students and families'

Ah the irony of the toffs who i think genuinely believe in the traditionally Conservative 'work hard and you will be rewarded' ethos having it shattered by this algorithm. They cant argue against the issues of class on this one. Its laid bare.

The whole ideal collapses. But we know this is happening not just because of an algorithm. Its the reason that Brexit happened in the first place and we know theres disillusionment with the collapse of the American dream in the States.

This is about high levels of inequality that the Conservatives have fuelled and continue to want to fuel with cronyism... Something, at some point, will have to give. The question is whether thats now, in 5 years or 20 years. But it wont be pretty whenever it happens.

Good point Peregrina - but there again, he went to Eton, so the algorithm would've worked in his favour and his predicted results from the teachers who knew he was lazy would have been moderated up

prettybird - yes, you are probably right. Although I gather that even the Head of Eton is not happy - they have big classes for some subjects which have been downgraded.

There has to be something wrong when I find myself in agreement with IDS and David Davis.

Tory MPs say A-level grading chaos is undermining party's levelling up agenda.

Except that there is no levelling up agenda - what it's done is laid bare the way that the current Tory Government is out for itself and its chums. They managed to hide that back last December.

@Sostenueto

Pmk. Seems ofqual divided half want to Chuck out algorithm and award CAGS. Gavin digging heels in or rather DC and grammar schools kicking off saying grades dropped by 6% on previous years and talk of delaying gcses because said algorithm will be much worse. There are over 2 million sitting gcses. You couldn't make this shit up!

That’s interesting - I can see the Tories intentionally favouring private schools, not Ofqual. So essentially they came up with it and the Tories pressured then into using it.

I’m surprised as much as half were ok with it. Did they all understand it? When I talk about work algorithms to colleagues and clients their eyes glaze over somewhat.

Tory MPs are right to worry about the red wall and their jobs - this could do for them what tuition fees did for the LibDems.

@Peregrina

Tory MPs say A-level grading chaos is undermining party's levelling up agenda.

Except that there is no levelling up agenda - what it's done is laid bare the way that the current Tory Government is out for itself and its chums. They managed to hide that back last December.

Agreed. The Tories just lied as they always do.

I love stuff like algorithms. The fun is all in finding the bullshit in them and what the 'outliers' really reveal in terms of human problems.

The very idea of applying one to individuals for A levels boogles my mind. What WERE they thinking? (clue: there wasn't a lot of thinking going on, because there were lots of people promoted above their ability - that phrase is going to stick around for a long time and will haunt the conservatives).

I have an idea, instead of holding elections, let's just look at the proportion of votes cast last time, and award the seats on that basis. It would produce a fairer result, surely? Except when it came down to individual seats there would be people whining that it wasn't fair, they got a majority. So in Oxfordshire for example, with 4 Tory seats, one Labour and one Lib Dem, this might well lead to the Tories having to give up at least one of their seats. Which one? A toss up between Banbury and Wantage, I would think, with Henley and Witney being pig with blue rosette seats. Although the Tories did lose control over South Oxfordshire DC, which covers Henley.

@TatianaBis

Tory MPs are right to worry about the red wall and their jobs - this could do for them what tuition fees did for the LibDems.

Hmm not quite. The LDs are and will always be held to higher standards. Because the Torys are 'expected' to lie they are off the hook a little.

HOWEVER, their whole ethos is about 'working hard gives opportunity' and the idea of 'promoted above their ability' is going to be more damaging as they will run beyond the A level debacle and will leach into other areas of policy before too long.

Thats what will be more damaging.

I was amused to see a Ipos Mori poll published yesterday about public opinion on the goverment's competence. Johnson was scoring considerably higher than he was at the end of last year. I do wonder how much its already shifted since the poll was compiled.

I can't help but think that some of the little Independent schools that have done well out of the algorithm are going to be brought down with a bump next year, or the year after, when normal results profiles resume. I suspect that there will be caveats made to explain how the 2020 results weren't typical so their standards haven't really fallen.

The LDs promised not to raise tuition fees though - whereas the Tories could not predict Covid 19, which is their get out of jail card.

Red: I am not sure that you can say that the Tories will get let off the hook in the Red Wall seats. There will be people who cast a vote for the Tories with misgivings or stayed at home, and who won't make that mistake next time. Especially now that Corbyn has gone.

@Peregrina

Red: I am not sure that you can say that the Tories will get let off the hook in the Red Wall seats. There will be people who cast a vote for the Tories with misgivings or stayed at home, and who won't make that mistake next time. Especially now that Corbyn has gone.

Exactly. Non-Tories who took a punt on them won’t do it again. Mind you the same is true about the impact of hard Brexit.

I’m not sure Tories do expect Tories to lie - or at least not the ones who have not already deserted them. Clavinova seems to believe every word they say.

The more astute ones do, but as long as the lies don’t penalise them, they don’t care. Once they do - that is a different matter.

I’m not sure Tories do expect Tories to lie - or at least not the ones who have not already deserted them. Clavinova seems to believe every word they say.

The more astute ones do, but as long as the lies don’t penalise them, they don’t care. Once they do - that is a different matter.

Most of the better off Middle Class traditional tory voters, rarely lose out though. They are safely comfortable and all these endless scandals hadn't touched them.

This is where No Deal Brexit and A Levels punishing them for being at other wise good but larger schools might bite them on the bum and provide a shock. Covid isn't helping either.

Johnson's stonking majority was based on the Red Wall seats, so he can't afford to antagonise them too much.

@Peregrina

Johnson's stonking majority was based on the Red Wall seats, so he can't afford to antagonise them too much.

Sorry, but what they gonna do ? Bring down the government ?

Bollocks they are.

Johnson can - and will - do exactly as he pleases.

For now he can do exactly as he pleases, and I agree he can do an enormous amount of damage meanwhile, but eventually there will need to be an election. Back in the 1980s Maggie Thatcher looked invincible, especially after the Falklands, but by 1997 it was a different story.

The Tories on these threads happily crowed about the 80 seat majority, and Labour's worst performance since 1935. They forget that Events, dear boy, events, caused Labour to have a landslide in 1945. Much to the surprise of the upper classes.

@prettybird - this is my complaint about the coverage - it's implying that independent schools aren't affected. They are - but not evenly across subjects? Dnephews private school has suffered it in chemistry it seems. So big independent schools - esp those that are selective have been affected. As much - I don't know. Dnephew has a friend who was forecast AABB - was awarded BCDD ..... it seems that they are so concerned about grade inflation, they have gone the other way.

It's a complete mess.

eventually there will need to be an election.

Personally I think that's the kind of lazy thinking (you see a lot of) that is predicated upon "well, we've always done it this way, so I see no reason things should change".

Exactly the sort of thinking - or lack thereof - that the parents of pupils currently paying the price for the countries Tory Lurch have been doing.

Why does there have to be an election ? Now we know the Queen is simply a very ( very !!!! ) expensive stand for a crown and fuck all else who ya gonna call ?

Remember we are so far down the rabbit hole, that a few nasty posters, a lot of mud slinging, and you could easy create a situation where the public "agrees" that it's too risky to have an election in case Labour win.

Trump has already started the narrative in the US that it might be a Bad Thing to have an election because Biden might win.

In normal times, both views would be laughed off the planet. But these aren't normal times. Or am I the only one that has noticed ?

After the Falklands we had boom and bust, managed decline and 3.5 million on the dole. The Tories still got re-elected, just like they did after the poll tax, a tax that punished poorer households. It is not 1945.

The Sun probably won it for Blair. I understand Starmer is courting Daily Mail readers but they’ll never back Labour.

Anti Immigration rhetoric is still a great dead cat despite some believing we’d seen the last of Farage.

The demographics of the country have changed quite a lot since 1982 ....
If the Government do stick with the Triple Lock pension rate increase
at the same time as increasing the interest rate on Student loans
they will pretty much guarantee never to win another election

because in 4 years time the incredibly angry students and their parents will finally start to outnumber the elderly.

Gavin Williamson is doomed , doomed I tell you

A-level exams row: PM has 'confidence' in Gavin Williamson and Ofqual http://news.sky.com/story/a-level-exams-row-pm-has-confidence-in-gavin-williamson-and-ofqual-12051028

The current A Level results debacle won’t last 4 years. It’s unlikely to feature prominently in 2024 election campaigning.

I expect Ofqual is divided 48% to 52%. A sign of the times.