Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Brexit

Westminstenders: How many Dead Cats Do You Get In A Thunderstorm?

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 24/06/2020 14:14

It never rains. It only pours.

What I wouldn't give for a bit of old fashioned drizzle right now.

4 years on and we are facing a torment of calamities. Brexit, serious political instability in the USA ahead of an election that Trump will refuse to lose even if he does, trade deals with the rest of the world put on 6 week deadlines, anger within the commonwealth, a sick weak dependent PM on the back foot and ill briefed, rampant growing corruption in the Tory party, woke nut jobs out of touch with reality, councils on the brink of bankruptcy and the whole covid-19 crisis.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
44
borntobequiet · 28/06/2020 20:01

My WFH setup is a low coffee table, a pouffe, a laptop and a phone, along with a calculator, pencils and paper.
Amazingly, I have far fewer aches and pains working like this. I spent a day at work at a proper work station with a proper chair a couple of weeks ago and could barely stand the next day. (I have an unstable SI joint and arthritis in hips and knees, though you wouldn’t know to look at me.)
If I’m taking a long phone call, I roll off the pouffe and stretch out on the floor. I doubt my employer can provide this at work.

ListeningQuietly · 28/06/2020 20:19

Re Sedwill
I am both concerned and optimistic.
The mandarins are going not in my name
but on the other hand, without them the decision making will be worse.

Sir David King's Glasto talk was interesting on the topic

SheWranglesRugRats · 28/06/2020 20:36

Second-round mayoral elections today here in France, three months late. A lot of really major cities are electing Green Party mayors for the first time. Interesting.

RedToothBrush · 28/06/2020 20:55

I'm already seeing what were dormitory villages come to life because the residents are there in the day and with that come facilities and different opportunities

During lockdown there were a lot of people who (finally) got off their arses to do something for the community. However most did it out of boredom or because they were furloughed. I don't believe it's likely to continue long term tbh. It's still the same faces doing most stuff.

I wonder if the rise in WFH is going to see a house price adjustment, as the shoeboxes built in the past 30 years suddenly become totally unfit for purpose ?

(Ponders the possibility of using the unheated outside storage units some modern houses come with. Maybe there's a growth market in fitting them out as offices ?)

There is a little bit of an assumption going on there. The not fit for purpose showboxes are all many can afford. And in many places, house prices are already extortionate outside the cities in very rural areas and villages. I can't see demand for them changing because house prices are hugely driven by good schools.

People with money moving out of London has had a negative affect in terms of localism where I am. The only people able to afford to buy / move up the ladder have lived in the south. House prices here for 2 beds didn't rise and there were no smaller 3 or 4 beds built. Instead those with money leapfrogged into the executive homes that no one here could afford. There is huge resentment between long term residents and people moving in (who have an attitude of entitlement but aren't prepared to do fuck all for the community stuff they prize).

Smaller 3 beds and garages are being routinely converted already and have been for about 5 years or so. This is making the problem with a lack of 2nd tier homes in the housing ladder worse by reducing the already small number of properties in this tier even further. Now the only way to move up is to move out (once you have the kids in the school of course which also weakens the lack of community champions).

This will be awful for anyone who grew up in 'escape to the country' land. You will see an acceleration of the pattern of 'ghettoising' of certain undesirable areas.

Maybe it will alleviate some of the property issues in London, but realistically people moving out of London aren't going to head to Stoke or Knowsley or Middlesbrough.

You will just get entrenchment of the middle classes and not a lot more opportunities born from it.

OP posts:
HoneysuckIejasmine · 28/06/2020 21:13

Yes I do agree Red. There's always a type of poster over in property desperate to talk up the next house crash. Property in this country though... I just can't see it crashing completely. There will be repossessions, but people cling on to their home for as long as possible - those who own and aren't at the mercy of the landlord that is. After all, negative equity is only relevant if you're selling.

Having said that, if I was a BTL Baron or had a large commercial property portfolio, I'd be nervous.

DHs company maintains two large offices in the city center. In an employee group largely divided to "doers" and "thinkers", they have absolutely no plans to bring the thinkers teams back any time soon - much cheaper to have them thinking at home, and merge the doers in to one building.

TheABC · 28/06/2020 21:19

Don't worry, RTB.

Boris has a genius "Build for Britain" plan. My guess is that he will dust off the post-WW2 options and push the councils to release more land to commercial builders in return for fuck-all. I can't see the green belt or social housing being prioritized.

I am fairly sure whatever we actually need as a country, this Government will do the exact opposite.

ListeningQuietly · 28/06/2020 21:22

I do not see a property crash

  • because only 5% of homes sell in any year

and TBH my comment about dormitories is much more about villages (popn under 400) than towns
which I've watched for decades

and YYY things like help to buy and right to buy should be abolished forthwith

the dynamics of that market are something I discuss on other sites quite a lot

sadly the sacking of folks like Sedwill does not bode well

RedToothBrush · 28/06/2020 21:23

You mean Johnson will hold a festival of Britain next year with lots of union Jack's an bake off marquees and will declare the sites will then be used for housing?

And he will mean the tents.

OP posts:
lljkk · 28/06/2020 21:24

Listening to World Service politics programme... ... Frost moving job bc Brexit negotiations will be 'over' by September. So.. .No Deal, right, what else could happen? I am long ago surprised that EU hasn't already just said "Fine let's do that" and devote their resources to No Deal planning rather than keep hearing unicorn plans from UK.

HesterThrale · 28/06/2020 22:03

An interior designer friend (with a high-end office refurb company) said in May they thought they’d get work reconfiguring offices into socially-distanced workspaces. Now she’s unsure; her boss thinks companies might not want any offices at all! Maybe there’s a future converting offices to residential...

A relative works for a large US company and usually flies abroad several times a month. None since March, none planned for the rest of 2020, if ever. They’re managing their international meetings on Zoom. Personally I’d find Zoom all day tiring, but maybe you get used to it?

Twitter announces employees will be allowed to work from home ‘forever’

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/technology/2020/may/12/twitter-coronavirus-covid19-work-from-home

BigChocFrenzy · 28/06/2020 22:04

Depends what one calls a "crash"

  • a substantial fall is likely, despite property owners trying to talk up the market.

It's all a bubble, which mass unemployment and the deepest recession for 300 years can burst

House prices have fallen in past recessions
and there have been repossessions of properties where people lost jobs and could not pay the mortgage
In some areas, prices had barely regained 2007 levels before COVID hit

The questions will be how far unemployment rises from the current 2.8 million after August, when furlough starts to cost employers more

  • and how long there will be these extra millions unemployed

If it's just a year or so, this is manageable wrt the property market

... but we can't tell how much worse No Deal Brexit can make the COVID recession

  • or how many more bungles this incompetent government will make
BigChocFrenzy · 28/06/2020 22:09

The commercial property market could suffer from the accelerated WFH
but I'm not sure what knock-on effect this would have on the residential market

People who can WFH almost 100% would have complete choice about where they live.

Depends how many people this applies to in future,
but some areas could suffer a sharp decline over the next few years, even if the recession is a short V-shaped one.

ListeningQuietly · 28/06/2020 22:10

Bigchoc
I have a client who is still paying off his 1997 crash mortgage arrears ....

JeSuisPoulet · 28/06/2020 22:15

I'm also convinced they will do the opposite of whatever is needed for the country and best for their friends instead and I am going to wage a bet that the homeless being housed in shipping container homes will be one of the "new innovations" Hmm It's the kind of statement the Leavers love because it gets rid of the surface problem (people on streets) with the added bonus of being cheap, non threatening to home owners (none of that "but he got a house before my mate!") and the convenience of being stack-able, so we can create lovely ghettos. Plus it will allow us to reuse and recycle all of those empty crates we used to do trade with!

BigChocFrenzy · 28/06/2020 22:26

listening On my first contract in Germany in the 1980s, I met an engineer who'd abandoned his house and posted the keys to the bank.
He had left the UK precisely to avoid spending decades paying back his huge debt

That was in MrsT's de-industrialisation and consequent extra 2 million unemployed

Unfortunately, that kind of escape will be more difficult in a deep global recession

ListeningQuietly · 28/06/2020 22:29

BigChoc
He's paying £50 a month - they will get their money back when he's 103 Grin
I got the interest frozen decades ago !!!

In other news
my toes are crossed
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/28/poland-election-duda-forced-to-second-round-exit-poll-suggests

HesterThrale · 28/06/2020 22:38

Bigchoc where are you getting the 2.8 figure from? It's worrying me a bit.
The questions will be how far unemployment rises from the current 2.8 million after August,

All I can find is this: Has it doubled in a month? (I accept it will rise soon...)

For February to April 2020, an estimated 1.34 million people were unemployed.

www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/june2020#unemployment

AuldAlliance · 28/06/2020 22:38

Personally I’d find Zoom all day tiring, but maybe you get used to it?

I had meetings on Zoom/Skype on Tuesday 9:30-5:00 (15 mins to eat); Wed 9:30-3:00 (lunch at 3); Thurs 5:00-8:00 and Fri 11:00-1:00

It was exhausting, headache inducing and not something I'm eager to repeat. Ever.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/06/2020 22:48

Hester It's the figure I saw calculated for EOM, including the jobs that have been lost in June
and estimated the jobs that are actually dead now but will only formally end with furlough - currently subsiding over 9 million jobs

I can't find it atm, but these articles analyse the problems:

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/25/government-britain-unemployment-crisis-rishi-sunak-furlough-jobs

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/23/this-generation-of-tories-is-complacent-about-the-blight-of-unemployment

BigChocFrenzy · 28/06/2020 22:51

Whenever I think Trump can no longer shock me ....

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/28/trump-deletes-tweet-supporter-shouting-white-power-after-fierce-criticism

Donald Trump has deleted a tweet he sent featuring video of a Trump supporter shouting, “White power! White power!”
after an outpouring of grief and outrage at racist language flowing directly from the White House once again.

HesterThrale · 28/06/2020 22:54

Thanks Bigchoc. Worrying. I'm old enough to remember the devastation of the 3 million unemployed under Thatcher.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/06/2020 22:57

www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/jun/28/trump-retweet-supporter-shouting-white-power-coronavirus-cases-rise-29-us-states-live-latest-news-updates?page=with:block-5ef8ef148f08116127119208#block-5ef8ef148f08116127119208

A disaster is unfolding in Montgomery, Alabama,
where Martin Luther King preached and where Rosa Parks was arrested for refusing to give up her seat on the bus.

Hospitals are running short of drugs to treat Covid-19,
intensive care units are close to capacity,
and ventilators are running short.

Between 85% and 90% of the very sick and dying are African American.

BigChocFrenzy · 28/06/2020 23:06

Hester Larry Elliot in that link writes that the govt is sleepwalking into an unemployment crisis

  • which may reach 14-15%, which is 4 million

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/25/government-britain-unemployment-crisis-rishi-sunak-furlough-jobs

“The central point here is that the government has ploughed huge amounts of money into preserving firms and especially jobs.

A large part of this will be wasted if the job retention scheme ends abruptly after lockdown ends.

Furthermore, the fallout will be massive and the recession risks being more severe and sustained
if there is a collapse of demand in the economy from widespread job loss and, even more important, widespread fear of job loss kicks in.”

Mistigri · 28/06/2020 23:11

Big wins for the Greens in the French municipal elections.

Re Zoom/Skype/Teams I'm used to doing meetings this way but find that people want to meet more now presumably because they miss out on social contact. I like it, but it can take away time that I need to get actual work done.

My employer (FTSE 100 manufacturer) will definitely allow employees to continue wfh if they want to. The U.K. head office was redesigned a couple of years ago to cram more people in (lots of hotdesking) so post-covid it won't be possible for everyone to work in the office. In my team it was already possible for people to homework when they needed to.

BigChocFrenzy · 29/06/2020 00:07

John Hopkins University states that global COVID deaths now exceed 500,000
(and that's with a lot of lockdowns)

Confirmed cases exceed 10 million

Swipe left for the next trending thread