Westminstenders: Magical Thinking

[RedToothBrush]

This week has seen reports of the government editing footage of Johnson to avoid embarrassing questions about the early government response.

We've been asked to accept that the rules were different to what we were told to excuse the law breaking behaviour of a senior government advisor. As Johnson said he was being a responsible father (as if Johnson knows what this is) and it wasn't as if he was visiting a lover (this Johnson would know all about). Let's be honest Johnson is the master of brazening out controversy.

We also have the ERG complaining they were lied to by Gove about the new Withdrawal Agreement and the border in the Irish Sea which surprises precisely no one else.

They appear to be a little upset by the Cummings debarkable too.

@SabrinaThwaite

Until DC resigns and beyond.

Do you think he will? I can’t see that happening. He really doesn’t think he’s done anything wrong. Classic psychopath / sociopath / narcissist.

Not willingly no. But some sackings billed as ‘resignations’ to save face.

To be fair to Jenkin, the Comittee has struggled for months to get Boris in front of it, and must have a ton of stuff to get through.
You'll just get more of the same from Boris anyway. Point is that DC is pivotal to him for the operation at the top of his Government, and he will only let him go if his own position is under genuine threat.

Point is that DC is pivotal to him for the operation at the top of his Government, and he will only let him go if his own position is under genuine threat.

Every day DC clings on Boris looks weaker and weaker. Boris will strong-armed unto shoving DC to save himself.

TBH who is there to be a competent spad to replace Cummings? Westminster full of Cummings proteges anyway?

No-one can replace him. Even if he stays the damage is done, Boris now looks super weak because it’s obvious who’s running the show.

On a completely different note 2 weeks ago I was lucky enough to win £1000 on the postcode lottery! I have spent that money several times over in my head but settled on buying a new bed and Hoover!. Not very glamorous things to buy but my bed is lush! I haven't had such a good night's sleep for yonks!

So true Tatiana

I wonder though, if his influence will wain? Like a spy, someone who is a power behind the throne, has to operate in secret. Now his cover has been blown - beforehand most people didn't know who he was, and didn't know how many of the decisions he was making instead of Johnson. Now they do.

People also knew that Johnson was lazy, but possibly didn't realise just how lazy he was.

When I wrote to my MP, the Conservative Party HQ and Downing St
(go me!) I said I had two concerns: firstly the Cummings Affair details themselves which are so self evidently inequitable, but more importantly, that Mr C had emphasised during his address from Downing St, that he is very selective in what information he 'bothers the PM with' and how much he makes decisions about all by himself.

To my surprise, my exH, who is dyslexic and has never 'written a letter' in the 25 years I've known him, has written to HIS Tory MP too!

Well colour me surprised - who would have thought it ...

Really significant report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which has found that mothers appear to be doing most of the housework and childcare during lockdown.

According to the research suggest that in homes where there is a working mother and father, women are doing more chores and spending more time with children.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and University College London (UCL) interviewed 3,500 families, and found mothers were only able to do one hour of uninterrupted work, for every three hours done by dads.

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/27/uk-coronavirus-live-tory-revolt-continues-to-build-over-dominic-cummings-lockdown-trip#block-5ece1e708f0887d70ac60fbb at 09:39

That's great, sos
Very useful purchases that make life comfier for you

Tired hello

So has Cendrillon been along to talk sbout the polls yet?

Gaspode That study shows how unequal life still is on average for women living with a bloke.
Since there are some / a few men who do their fair share, the ratio will be even worse than 3:1 for some women

Gaspode do you have a link to the study?
It seems clear that women in academia are being shafted just now, particularly those who have kids, while our male colleagues are churning out research like there's no tomorrow.
I'd like to flag up a few issues.

Sos: enjoy your bed!

Not seen too much of Cendrillon of late, only to sneer when someone said Johnson would be gone by Christmas. But with 40 or so Tory MPs rebelling, that 80 seat majority doesn't look quite as secure as it did.

Let's remind ourselves of an important story that was drowned out by Cummings Goings:

Sunday Times Insight: 22 days of dither and delay on coronavirus that cost thousands of British lives
[[http://archive.is/qbvY7
archive.is/qbvY7]]

....After being initially hostile to the idea,
the prime minister put his libertarian instincts to one side and agreed in principle that a lockdown would be necessary.

However, rather than locking down immediately,
there was a further nine-day delay as he deliberated over how and when a lockdown should be introduced.

That prevarication proved, for some, to be fatal.

New back-dated modelling assessing the historic spread of the disease

• which is published for the first time today - estimates the number of people infected in the UK was indeed doubling every three days during late February and early March, just as some of the initial reports from China in late January had suggested they might.

The work, produced jointly by an Imperial College London team led by Samir Bhatt and Oxford University,
suggests that on March 3 - the day the government committee gave the warning about the dire consequences of a mitigation approach -
there were about 14,000 infections in the UK.

Such was the speed of the spread of the virus that 200,000 people were estimated to be infected by the time the government began to change its mind about its policy on Saturday, March 14.

The last nine days while Johnson wrestled over the decision on when and how to go for lockdown were particularly brutal.

By the time the lockdown was announced on Monday, March 23,
such large numbers were doubling over such a short period that infections are estimated to have soared to 1.5 million.

According to the data, no other large European country allowed infections to sky-rocket to such a high level before finally deciding to go into lockdown.

Those 20 days of government delay are the single most important reason why the UK has the second highest number of deaths from the coronavirus in the world.

BJ is safe so long as Tory MPs think their seats are

If this changes, the Tory party would defenstrate their leader with their usual ruthlessness,
for yet another "wasn't us, we're new" government

Sos that quote on Boris from 1982 is incredibly telling. The boy became the man who got voted in as our PM on a landslide. Depressing.

BigChoc If more comes out about this modelling. Do you think it will occur to some solicitor that those people who got severely ill and families of people who died would consider a class action lawsuit against the gov't for failing to take action in time to prevent their illnesses/deaths? Especially those that contacted the illness early / mid March.

I follow this thread all the time so thank you for all of your insights. I agree we need to watch what is going on behind the Dom story. With regard to DC I wonder if he was booked to go on annual leave for those 2 weeks. Would this even be relevant?

Really significant report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which has found that mothers appear to be doing most of the housework and childcare during lockdown.

There are plenty of (primarily) Tories who see that as a win, and are busy dreaming up ways to keep it that way. Probably one of the contentions around lifting lockdown.

The nations collective behind fridges will be spotless.

@AuldAlliance link to study -from Guardian website

www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14861

Today's update from the motorway network .....
All of the Stay Safe signs are gone
the gantries are blank

Thanks, Gaspode

@DrBlackbird In a similar vein (legal action re late lockdown)I could see this investigation being pertinent
Liverpool City Council to investigate Atletico Madrid match
Occurred to me a while back that Liverpool (either City Council or class action of e.g. public transport workers]] might have a legal case over this being allowed to go ahead, either against the government or footballing authorities.

There’s a lot of experience in Liverpool over long uphill legal battles, and there was a lot of disquiet/disbelief about the match going ahead. Not least amongst the management and players of the football team if rumors are to be believed.