Westminstenders: Political vacuums are very bad things

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has been notible (once again) but his absence.

Whilst we appreciate he has been ill and has a new baby, we are in the midst of a national crisis and a sense of leadership and guidance from our prime minister has been lacking.

And its not gone unnoticed.

Not just by the press. And not just by opposition. Nor NHS and care managers. But on the ground where it matters.

The lack of the sense of seriousness has dissipated. The sense of duty to country to behave. The idea that it will some how be all over this week when it doesn't appear to be the government strategy. The total lack of policy for a week whilst it's become clear bit by bit that these things have been under discussion and decided upon prior to the supposed key meeting on Thursday from the announcements from the regional assemblies. All in favour of a TV stunt tomorrow night.

Let's see how that goes.

The grandstanding isn't a substitute for detail and substance in a crisis. And we still have the looming show down at the end of June over extension of transition. More optics. More lack of practicality at a time when things will really be on the brink.

The next month will be telling and we hit the wall of economic reality which will bring the whole world crashing in on the lives of so many people.

This is the calm before the storm. Enough the sunshine. Enjoy the time with families. Before this is over everything will have changed for so many.

This is just the start of things unravelling and it needs someone to take control and draw up solid blueprints for all our futures. Is a man who is so frequently awol from where he is supposed to be and doesn't take commitments and responsibilities seriously, really the man for that?

Churchill had a vision for the country that cited housing as our second social service, the NHS being our first.

Will Johnson manage to some how forge out so grand new venture which gives the resource and rewards it deserves to the NHS (beyond lipservice and empty platitudes and clapping, that recognises the importance of social care and can stop the almost inevitable coming wave of homelessness and unemployment

And can he do it without selling us off as a basement bargain to the us?

Is it hyperbole to think we're heading for a dystopian future? Doesn't feel possible to stop it. Authoritarian governments in bed with big tech. Attempts to shut down the free press.

A more immenient concern, however, is seriously doubting the skills and expertise of UK trade negotiators. All these trade deals to be done. Back when the US went to negotiate the multilateral agreement on investment, they sent 400 trade lawyers. The entire continent of Africa had two to represent their interests.... It's feeling like we are much more in the African camp, than the US camp.

Is it hyperbole to think we're heading for a dystopian future?

I thought we were already there ?

Someone on the internet remembers better times ...

A more immenient concern, however, is seriously doubting the skills and expertise of UK trade negotiators

And what their brief is. As it certainly is not going to be what's best for the population of the UK as a whole.

Songs 💐
I'm so sorry; everything hammering you over the head at once
Do take care of your own health first

Clash, Honey New cases in Germany are still decreasing overall, below 800 for several days now
Deaths have been mainly in double figures for some time now too

However, the low numbers and the fact that the small hotspots have been locked down,
make it difficult to assess what R0 means for the country

R0 fell again to slightly below 1, again without anything significant happening.

Currently, the German media and public are far less concerned than those in the UK

• who seem to be looking for reasons to avoid reopening schools etc

RKI (German oublic health)

They say they don't expect to see the trend increasing again

• which agrees with Denmark public health sessment for all European countrieis coming out of lockdown atm

ntbo they are monitoring closely, because they aren't sure about how to use R0 either, with such low numbers.

The mass testing and mass contact tracing enables local hotspots to be locked down promptly,
BUT
with people being infectious before syptoms, there is still a risk

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/NeuartigesCoronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-05-12-de.pdf??__blob=publicationFile

Outbreaks
After COVID-19 outbreaks in six retirement homes in the district of Greiz, Thuringia, the reported incidence in this district in the past 7-days has been decresasing to 54 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

In the district of Sonneberg, an increase of the reported incidence in the past 7-days to 53 cases per 100,000 inhabitants has been observed.

Since the end of April, COVID-19 outbreaks were also reported in meat processing plants in Baden-Wuerttemberg, North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein,
with case numbers ranging from 100 to 350 (each)

Estimation of the reproduction number (R)
....
The reproduction number, R, is defined as the mean number of people infected by a case.

R can only be estimated based on statistical analyses such as nowcasting and not directly extracted from the notification system.
.....
The number of incident cases estimated using the nowcasting approach is presented as a moving 4-day average to compensate for random effects of individual days....

With this approach, the point estimate of R for a given day is estimated as the quotient of the number of incident cases on this day divided by the number of incident cases four days earlier.

The current estimate is R= 0.94 (95% prediction interval: 0.79 - 1.10)
and is based on electronically notified cases as of 12/05/2020, 12:00 AM.

The estimate of the reproduction number R has been slightly above 1 in the last few days,
which shows that the decline in the number of new cases we have observed in recent weeks has levelled off and may be reaching a plateau.

So far we do not expect to see an increasing trend again.

The slowdown in the decline in new cases is also related to local outbreaks, for example in the vicinity of slaughterhouses.

Moreover, since case numbers in Germany are slowly decreasing overall,
these outbreaks have a greater impact on the value of the reproduction number R than if total case numbers were higher.

Overall, therefore, the development of the number of new cases must be observed in the next few days in order to rule out a merely temporary slowdown in the decline.

Statistical uncertainties are represented by the prediction interval.

Found this an interesting peice from Raphael Behr in the Graun on Boris

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/13/coronavirus-boris-johnson-tories-lockdown

Thank you BCF that makes sense.

Watching the wheels of SCOTUS turning ...

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/may/12/supreme-court-donald-trump-tax-returns

As the supreme court heard arguments concerning Donald Trump’s tax returns on Tuesday, justice Sonia Sotomayor told a lawyer for the president “there is a long, long history of Congress seeking records and getting them” from occupants of the Oval Office.

(contd)

interesting references to Nixon and Watergate and Clinton too.

Oh Honeysuckle - you must have got your provisions from the same place as me ! I also got a kilo of fresh yeast instead of 500gr dry.

yoikes John Lewis sell weighted blankets online, in six weights for different-sized sleepers.

Thanks hester
I've ordered the one pointy linked to. Excited to try it! My fibromyalgia has been horrendous lately.

BJ lying again in Parliament: in his reply to Ian Blackford he claimed that the UK now tests "more than virtually every other country in Europe"

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104645/covid19-testing-rate-select-countries-worldwide/

BJ lying again in Parliament: in his reply to Ian Blackford he claimed that the UK now tests "more than virtually every other country in Europe"

Is that litrally though ?

The vocal majority ?

The holding to account begins. Starmer writes to Johnson asking him to correct the record re advice given on likelihood of care home infections.

I imagine Starmer is just getting started...

twitter.com/bethrigby/status/1260540352408301570?s=21

It's incroyable the difference a competent person can make.

It was brilliantly done. Johnson out by his own document. He really needs to be more alert.

How long before BJ resigns?

It's all turning into a bit of work isn't it? Not the jolly jape he thought it would be!

...caught out

It was brilliantly done. Johnson out by his own document. He really needs to be more alert.

There are no cameras here

Survey from ds2s primary school...

Am I sending him back on 1/6?

No fucking clue

yoikes my DD is so much more rested - her fibro has been pretty awful too lately, I'm sure stress aggravates it. She says it stops her twitching at night so she stays down better, which means better sleep. Her fatigue is noticeably less and she has no dark circles under her eyes. She also reports a reduction in pain. I hope it does the same for you. It's not a cure, but it's a substantial improvement.

In news from "the continent", the mayor of our town ordered masks for everyone, from a reputable (he claims) French medical supplies co. who sourced some masks made in Bulgaria, through an Italian intermediary.
They are so substandard that he is suggesting giving us 4, rather than 2, so we can wear two at a time...
And is suing.
And the company has said they will replace the 20k dodgy masks our taxes paid for.

The same company supplied masks to two other towns and the mayor of one says he thinks his are fine