Westminstenders: Political vacuums are very bad things

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has been notible (once again) but his absence.

Whilst we appreciate he has been ill and has a new baby, we are in the midst of a national crisis and a sense of leadership and guidance from our prime minister has been lacking.

And its not gone unnoticed.

Not just by the press. And not just by opposition. Nor NHS and care managers. But on the ground where it matters.

The lack of the sense of seriousness has dissipated. The sense of duty to country to behave. The idea that it will some how be all over this week when it doesn't appear to be the government strategy. The total lack of policy for a week whilst it's become clear bit by bit that these things have been under discussion and decided upon prior to the supposed key meeting on Thursday from the announcements from the regional assemblies. All in favour of a TV stunt tomorrow night.

Let's see how that goes.

The grandstanding isn't a substitute for detail and substance in a crisis. And we still have the looming show down at the end of June over extension of transition. More optics. More lack of practicality at a time when things will really be on the brink.

The next month will be telling and we hit the wall of economic reality which will bring the whole world crashing in on the lives of so many people.

This is the calm before the storm. Enough the sunshine. Enjoy the time with families. Before this is over everything will have changed for so many.

This is just the start of things unravelling and it needs someone to take control and draw up solid blueprints for all our futures. Is a man who is so frequently awol from where he is supposed to be and doesn't take commitments and responsibilities seriously, really the man for that?

Churchill had a vision for the country that cited housing as our second social service, the NHS being our first.

Will Johnson manage to some how forge out so grand new venture which gives the resource and rewards it deserves to the NHS (beyond lipservice and empty platitudes and clapping, that recognises the importance of social care and can stop the almost inevitable coming wave of homelessness and unemployment

And can he do it without selling us off as a basement bargain to the us?

We had a survey sent before the guidance came out from DSs school which basically wanted to know what concerns we had as parents and whether we'd be considering sending the children back in. DS is not in one of the year groups to go back in the first wave so that's some relief. I know a lot of the parents raised the issue of the amount of adults on the premises and drop off and collection, the lack of ability to distance them, the ridiculously small at normal time only entrance and exit, provisions for vulnerable parents/carers, etc. DDs school were somewhat ahead of the curve and had already raised adults as an issue with our local authority a few weeks back, though they're somewhat in a better position to handle the flow of adults.

From what I've seen of the guidance it's largely sort it out yourselves. This is going to be a real nightmare for them, I don't envy them at all. Both schools have been very active with setting work and being available to help throughout often dealing with their own children and rotas for key worker children days, so I'd be supporting them completely if they said no to shortening the summer. They've not been at home twiddling their thumbs. They may still have to plan home learning alongside lessons for the next year too.

My eugenicist in the making modelling friend posted this yesterday adc.bmj.com/content/early/2020/05/05/archdischild-2020-319474?fbclid=IwAR2C0TSAT0Ffk4yMFbQUu81uwf8WNUbYO7qVaEKFSZNdASCOUuagutfxCGs no one has liked it yet...he's playing with fire

The very first ref says kids do in fact get infected, which is taken out of context in the intro...or am I mis-reading here? Community testing in China did NOT indicate "significant number of children with no or subclinical symptoms" it actually concluded "Children of all ages appeared susceptible to COVID-19, and there was no significant sex difference. Although clinical manifestations of children’s COVID-19 cases were generally less severe than those of adult patients, young children, particularly infants, were vulnerable to infection. The distribution of children’s COVID-19 cases varied with time and space, and most of the cases were concentrated in Hubei province and surrounding areas. Furthermore, this study provides strong evidence of human-to-human transmission" ?

On the one hand I'm telling ds to stay two metres from everyone and he can't have his best friend to play, and then I'm being told he will be able to go to school (possibly in a different class to his best friend) and he's fine being around everyone but his best friend STILL can't come to play.

I'm a lot older than 5 but I'm getting frustrated with the mixed messaging as well. I'm vulnerable but not shielded. I shouldn't go out of my house unless I have to and even then stay away from others, I shouldn't see my friends or family who I know have been sensible. However my DC should go to school leaving me twice a day in a situation surrounded by possibly 600 other adults who could have been doing god knows what. If I'm going to have exposure like that then I may as well go to a pub and have a pint at least.

I think in 2 weeks the upward tick of the second wave will be apparent, so there's no point "planning" for it, personally.

I have an extra week (unless the school reopens during school holidays).

I'm largely of the same opinion at this stage but this government has a habit of ploughing on regardless of the practical sensibilities of deadlines so I'm still wary.

I've not said anything to DS, but he watches the news with me and may yet pick up on the school himself.

Exactly - it's basically and end to lockdown.
None of these studies are recognising that children are effectively shielded at the moment and have had zero contacts. Saying that therefore they pose no risk when we have no data for our own population on it is very irresponsible IMO.

@mrslaughan I really liked that link, it's very digestible and covers the communication issue well from a PH standpoint. His Agency Equation is also worth a read in this brave new world (and I'm not sure why I keep wondering more on Cummings as I read it - looking for phantoms maybe).

so much for the fancy link - medium.com/@jonjalex/the-agency-equation-3ca7d20e49eb The Agency Equation

Latest word from Handcock: You can meet a different person every day, but not two people on the same day.

(I'm wondering about the International Date Line)

To be honest, I now have no idea what is or isn’t a good idea to do. So many experts who can have very different pov, often opposite to each other.
And the reality is that we know very little about this virus, Incl the real death rate because we have never tested a whole population to see is or isn’t asymptomatic. (The only ones I am aware have done that is Iceland).

The advice though is crazy. It doesn’t make sense to anyone and it will just lead to people doing whatever they want. After all, if you have spent 8 hours working with Sonia in an office, you should be able to also see her at weekend at her house no??

I a:surprised they have put hairdressers as non essentials and one of the last ones to reopen!

@mrslaughan the idea that this is BJ way to make people responsible of what is happening and not him is one I have seen around quite a bit. And I fully agree. He is already starting to put things in place to be able to blame someone else for any issue. This
Incl the second wave that everyone is predicting to be much worse.

The very big issue I have is that he is putting people responsible BUT AT THE SAME TIME, he is also forcing people to do things they might not want to do, like going back to work (eg by ending the furlough scheme because people are getting too used to it). Add to that a bit of the ‘people who don’t work as just lazy’ attitude and many people will feel they have no other choice but to go out and work (even if they dint feel safe, their employer isn’t taking any step to protect them etc... - See tesco where people at the till still don’t have a screen to protect them or face masks)

.

Ryanair showing contempt as usual for everything except making money

Basically encouraging his passengers to ignore UK quarantine - because itherwise hardly anyone would fly into the Uk

and Ryanair passengers have to ask to go to the loo....
maybe cabin crew will be told to ignore all passengers unless they buy some Ryanair crap first

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/12/ryanair-flights-resume-coronavirus-rules-july

Michael O’Leary, the group chief executive of Ryanair, brushed off the 14-day quarantine,
from which French and Irish travellers will be exempt.

He said the exemption showed the quarantine period was not based on science,
passengers would ignore it, and the UK government lacked the police resources to check on people.

I've been worried for some time that the UK's version of "easing lockdown" would be like our planning for No Deal Brexit: not thought through, not based on anything more than soundbytes for their voting base, not taking responsibility for the decisions they've made that will make everything harder for ordinary people, making out that someone else should have stepped up and filled their leadership void. Just cross your fingers and hope your base keeps giving you a pass.

This is the end result of a mindset that's said that government is useless and only the private sector should be left to do things - the politicians who really think that don't believe they should be responsible for anything. "But we told business they should do something" is not leadership.

Difference between a Good Tory and a Bad Tory:

A Bad Tory will flick the switch off on your ventilator because we can't afford the electricity.

A Good Tory will slowly reduce the Oxygen supply to your ventilator to nudge you to get up from your bed and walk, because we can't afford the electricity.

Rishi is a Good Tory.

That’s a good way to summarise it

Maybe that is the whole cunning plan?!

Maybe it is Cummings cunning plan?! Not that our govt is actually incompetent but rather it is deliberate incompetence. Then the public will be ready to swallow the message that we/they cannot count on the government to do anything competently and therefore we must turn to the more efficient private sector.... including for our health care.

Will we see a round of FB memes / ads to highlight how private companies stepped up to the mark in PPE, testing, etc?. Perhaps this Is Cummings playing the long game and softening us up to accept NHS being on the table in US trade talks.

Or is that crediting the man with too much genius and sadly the fact of the matter is that this gov't is really this incompetent. Public enquiries are extremely costly and often fail to lead to any useful outcomes, but I would be interested in this one. It would make a great case study.

Starting my stopwatch to see how long it takes for someone to rush in and defend the Tories, because at least in the UK your ventilator won't go on fire and kill you, as has happened in Russia.

DS2 has returned after his first morning at school and is very chirpy. The skipping rope is a v good idea for maintaining physical distance...

"Or is that crediting the man with too much genius and sadly the fact of the matter is that this gov't is really this incompetent."

Yep, they are incompetent
Looking at their track record in .... well, everything, really

Yep, they are incompetent

May I be the first to get in "Corbyn would have been worse."

If they wanted to kill off the vulnerable,
v simple to resist lockdown and not subsidise people with several billion quid per month to stay home

By all accounts, the govt initially planned on herd immunity,
then they U-turned when Whitty looked at Italy and calculated "reasonable worst case" of ½ million UK deaths within a short space of time

From Elsethread:

"Control The Virus? I can't control my dogs!"

then they U-turned when Whitty looked at Italy and calculated "reasonable worst case" of ½ million UK deaths within a short space of time

Forgive me for being totally cynical, but at some stage they realised that this policy would literally kill off much of their voter base. If it only killed off poor working class folks e.g. young single mothers, those they categorise as benefit scroungers and those who don't normally vote or don't vote Tory, then it would have been all to the good.

As I said, I am totally cynical.

I see the Guardian is reporting that the UK death toll has now passed 40,000. Which I believe is definitely the highest in Europe.

As I said, I am totally cynical.

Nah, you're a realist. I have thought (and said) the same.