Westminstenders: Following the EU lead

[RedToothBrush]

Coronavirus poses a particularly Irish shaped question. How the UK responds to Irish plans for ending lockdown and whether Arlene continues to back an all Ireland plan will be fascinating to watch and see justified regardless of which way we go.

The UK for all its new found independence is looking very closely to the success / failure of EU strategies before making our own plan public. Mainly because we've yet to write one.

Johnson hasn't led much. He's delegated. Yet he gets all the praise for doing the sum total of fuck all and never being the bad guy. There always another fall guy to blame.

Economically we are stuffed and promises of a very quick bounce back don't look likely based on public confidence and willingness to return to places like pubs restaurants and shops.

Our ability to adapt to new conditions at short notice has been tested and businesses can not afford to do this again soon.

This is the background to which we go into talks. Both sides need an extension to serve their best interests. Johnson is determined to cut our nose of to spite our face for the sake of his legacy and to keep those paying the back handers and dodging tax happy.

@mrslaughan thanks for the link with plastic boxes. Now I have something to store my flour.

@borntobequiet that is exactly it.
With every clap sounding like a bullet and the people using it as a street party it has begun to seem increasingly macabre.

The clapping is North Korean. First one to stop gets dragged out to the middle of the cul-de-sac to be tarred and feathered when the lockdown ends.

I keep making the mistake of being outside in the front garden watering my plants when the fucking clap starts.

No I don't join in. I try and get back in the house as quickly as possible.

We still have fireworks here. Still. Where the fuck they are getting them from or how big their stockpile of explosives is, is quite worrying. I'm starting to wonder if they are making homemade explosives at this point!

.

Homemade explosives
That’s homeschooling for you, fraught with danger.

I go out and clap every Thursday. Tbh I've been somewhat clapped out since the second time but it's nice to see the neighbours and pretty much every week a different dog escapes and has to be chased so it's amusing. Not really the right spirit

We also have rainbows which I avoided for ages until my bloody MIL told the DC to do it. I love her normally and have had to remind myself of that a lot.

Though DD spotted the amount of rainbows in the Downing Street window and asked how many kids Johnson had which had DH and I laughing a lot. She didn't really get it or the answer that her guess was as good as ours. She's counted and decided on 20.

restarting the economy needs nearly all workers to comply

There was a gag on the Mash Report about restarting the economy so we could all enjoy one last time before Brexit ...

Clapping round here is pretty minimal - its an excuse for fireworks and boy racers to drive around hooting their horns.
Neighbours had another massive weekend party (previous one made it into the press)

I think a lot of people WFH on full pay or Furloughed do not realise how permanent the damage to small businesses will be.
They think that when Lockdown ends they will be able to go back to cafes and shops that will have actually gone bust.
The UK summer festival season was a huge industry.
Those people have lost a whole year's income and tend not to have savings.
The Sunak money tree will have to grow very large
and last a long time
but can he keep the plates spinning through a hard Brexit as well ?

The starting assumption that there's any trust to start with is rather touching, and feels like it comes from a different age of debutantes and diligence ... which really needs to be somebodies autobiography title, rather than a less than subtle way of watermarking a post ...

www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2020/05/me_on_covad-19_.html

schneier.com
Me on COVID-19 Contact Tracing Apps
3-4 minutes

I was quoted in BuzzFeed:

"My problem with contact tracing apps is that they have absolutely no value," Bruce Schneier, a privacy expert and fellow at the Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society at Harvard University, told BuzzFeed News. "I'm not even talking about the privacy concerns, I mean the efficacy. Does anybody think this will do something useful? ... This is just something governments want to do for the hell of it. To me, it's just techies doing techie things because they don't know what else to do."

I haven't blogged about this because I thought it was obvious. But from the tweets and emails I have received, it seems not.

This is a classic identification problem, and efficacy depends on two things: false positives and false negatives.

False positives: Any app will have a precise definition of a contact: let's say it's less than six feet for more than ten minutes. The false positive rate is the percentage of contacts that don't result in transmissions. This will be because of several reasons. One, the app's location and proximity systems <span class="line-through"> based on GPS and Bluetooth </span> just aren't accurate enough to capture every contact. Two, the app won't be aware of any extenuating circumstances, like walls or partitions. And three, not every contact results in transmission; the disease has some transmission rate that's less than 100% (and I don't know what that is).
False negatives: This is the rate the app fails to register a contact when an infection occurs. This also will be because of several reasons. One, errors in the app's location and proximity systems. Two, transmissions that occur from people who don't have the app (even Singapore didn't get above a 20% adoption rate for the app). And three, not every transmission is a result of that precisely defined contact -- the virus sometimes travels further.

Assume you take the app out grocery shopping with you and it subsequently alerts you of a contact. What should you do? It's not accurate enough for you to quarantine yourself for two weeks. And without ubiquitous, cheap, fast, and accurate testing, you can't confirm the app's diagnosis. So the alert is useless.

Similarly, assume you take the app out grocery shopping and it doesn't alert you of any contact. Are you in the clear? No, you're not. You actually have no idea if you've been infected.

The end result is an app that doesn't work. People will post their bad experiences on social media, and people will read those posts and realize that the app is not to be trusted. That loss of trust is even worse than having no app at all.

It has nothing to do with privacy concerns. The idea that contact tracing can be done with an app, and not human health professionals, is just plain dumb.

EDITED TO ADD: This Brookings essay makes much the same point.

Tags: base rate, Bluetooth, COVID-19, false negatives, false positives, GPS, identification, medicine, privacy, surveillance, tracing

dg The gps data not working properly seems really obvious, but it's surprising how many people seem to be bought into the idea of this app. DS uses one of DHs old phones, DD uses one of mine and if you ever use the gps on them at home DD is in the house but DS is in the nearby park. We've learned not to get too shocked when find my iPhone shows his phone as being there and just send the sound to it it's often hidden under a cushion on the sofa where he swears he looked

Interesting point math on accents.

I’d say it depends on the messsage and communication channel. For the basic “Stay at Home, protect the NHS, Save Lives” advert message I think this is so simple that it basically wouldn’t matter what accent of voice delivers it.

I am pleased they used Prof Whitty, personally because it to some extent “de politicises” the message and to my mind, increases the chance of compliance. Another option they could have pursued would be to use multiple public figures/celebs as happens on so many charity appeals, but from what I’ve seen they haven’t done that.

For the more complicated Q&A responses at the briefings we haven’t heard too many “regional” accents, maybe people do respond differently to different accents offering advice and explanations.

www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/travel-restrictions-will-not-be-amended-to-stop-northern-ireland-day-trippers/ar-BB13qdlB

Travel restrictions will not be amended to stop Northern Ireland day-trippers

Christina Finn 2 days ago
3-4 minutes

LOCKDOWN REGULATIONS DO not need to be amended to prevent day-trippers from Northern Ireland travelling to the Republic, the Taoiseach has said.

Over the weekend, a loophole in the emergency legislation emerged whereby concerns surfaced that those in Northern Ireland did not have to abide by movement restrictions once they had arrived in the Republic.

Speaking in the Dáil today, Varadkar said he had consulted with the Attorney General in relation to the loophole and it was determined that no changes to the emergency laws are needed.

He said instead, the gardaí and the PSNI need to co-operate to enforce laws on both side of the border.

“Unless we prohibit people crossing the border, which we are just not going to do, what is required is co-operation. Somebody going beyond the 2km restriction without a very good reason, such as being a cross-border worker, is breaching the law in one jurisdiction.

“What is really required is co-operation between the police authorities. We will not to make it illegal for people from Northern Ireland to come into the Republic of Ireland for reasons with which the deputy will agree. Enforcement is going to be the issue which will require co-operation between the PSNI and An Garda Síochána. I am reassured by what the Garda Commissioner said about this in recent days,” he said, replying to a question by Independent TD Thomas Pringle on the matter.

Commissioner Drew Harris said during the week, stating: “Those who are engaged in non-essential travel, who in effect of this expression day-tripping, into this jurisdiction – they may have breached the law as it is in Northern Ireland.”

Anyone who may have been in contact with a person who has COVID-19, is advised to contact HSE Live via 1850 24 1850 or on the HSE website here

If you are unwell with a cough, especially with respiratory symptoms (e.g. cough, high temperature, shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, fever) you should isolate yourself immediately and phone your GP

If you have a COVID-19 related travel query, you can call the dedicated advice centre on (01)613 1733.

Follow the government’s latest travel advice here

The gps data not working properly seems really obvious, but it's surprising how many people seem to be bought into the idea of this app.

GPS, DNA ... it's the magic wand of mysterious acronyms isn't it ? You just drop those into your proposition, and 80% of people will just nod sagely for fear of being thought a fool.

Before I catch up on the thread, here's a very useful timeline of the government response to the pandemic: edinburghcovid19selfisolation.blogspot.com/2020/05/on-thursday-in-question-time-sirpaul.html?spref=tw&m=1 Note this is from a geneticist I happen to follow on Twitter, not a journalist, but everything is linked to sources.

I wonder if the app will be useful regardless of the obvious shortcomings because it will change people's behaviours?

The fear of having to self-isolate if they come into contact with someone may be greater for many than the fear of the virus itself.

Discussion of the "app" elsewhere dug this up ... fascinating read.

Not only a fascinating read, but given it happened 70 years ago, it's also fascinating that I had never heard of it until today - despite believing I had followed the ID cards fiasco closer than most.

I'd be curious if anyone else here was aware ... it's hard to fight the sensation of suppression

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Willcock

In the UK, the most trusted accent of all is Educated-but-not-posh Scots.

Isn't that... Gove?

Actually, it's Sturgeon atm. Who else in national politics? Brown, Robin Cook, Charles Kennedy and Alistair Darling are examples that jump to mind. Who in the current crop?

Britons will suffer health problems from Covid-19 for years, warn doctors

That's those who had "moderate" / severe COVID:
PTSD, lung problems, blood clots, inflammation - possibly in brain too ....

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/coronavirus-britons-health-problems-covid-19

Re the reaching of the 100k/day tests by including those that have been sent out. That could come back and bite the Government if there is then a massive dip in numbers after the initial surge in requests tails off.

Unless of course, they start double-counting by including those tests that have been returned in the numbers not putting it past them

Johnson faces lockdown dilemma as scientists warn over grim data

Tough decision: paternity leave or go off sick again ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/25/boris-johnson-lockdown-dilemma-grim-virus-data

Professor John Edmunds, a member of the government’s Sage group of Covid-19 experts,...

“The strategy behind plans to lift the lockdown is based on the idea [that] you could then control the epidemic by testing people for infections before tracing their contacts"

“However, if we lifted the lockdown now, the testing and tracing system would be overwhelmed.
We will have to get case numbers down a lot lower than they are now before we can think of lifting current regulations.”

Professor Keith Neal of Nottingham University...
“This daily figure peaked on 5 April with 5,903 cases.
This Saturday it stood at 3,583,”
.....This latter figure was boosted by an extra 1,330 new cases of infected care and health workers, which brought Saturday’s overall total to 4,913.

“It has therefore taken three weeks for numbers of hospitalised Covid-19 patients to decline from a daily total of 5,903 to 3,641.”

Professor Paul Hunter, of the University of East Anglia...
“There is no doubt this rate of decline is disappointing.
Certainly it is far too high to consider lifting lockdown restrictions at present.

We need to get numbers down to a few hundred new cases a day before we can do that. Such a decline could take months.”
< imo, neither the economy or small businesses - or Tory donors - can wait that long >
.......
The prime minister is facing an acute dilemma over the lockdown as members of his cabinet and MPs in his party argue over

whether it should be eased to save the economy from collapse

• the predominant view in the Treasury -

or whether the public should be told to double down on restrictions to reduce the death toll.
Matt Hancock, the health secretary, is pushing the more cautious approach.

prettybird It's like someone on a diet daying they've lost 2 stone - when they've actually lost 1.5 stone,
but they've planned the menus to lose the last ½ stone

email from my local labour party:

^Community Contact Tracers
This was introduced by Dr Jack Czauderna, a GP in Sheffield for 30 years and for years involved with “Darnall Well Being”. He is part of a group of retired GPs and public health workers in Sheffield who have initiated “Sheffield Community Contact Tracers” (www.communitycontacttracers.com/).

They believe that the move out of lockdown requires a local approach, treating Covid as 100s and 1000s of separate outbreaks rather than one large one: identifying people with Covid 19 in a community and tracing their contacts. Need to do this linking GPs, strong community organisations and volunteers. They are running a pilot in Heeley with the retired doctors supervising a group of volunteers. They are given a name of someone with symptoms, ring them and provide support, then trace and follow-up all their recent contacts – again providing support. This has huge advantages over a top-down government scheme: engages local people giving them a sense of agency, prevents the long queues seen in the government volunteer schemes, incorporates support to those who are ill unlike an app, stops people being passed between 111 – GP – 111.

The presentation was well-received in the meeting with several questions and supportive comments. Paul Blomfield, in introducing his own part of the meeting, said that Jack was completely right, that there needs to be less centralisation, and pointing out that the effect of the Lansley reforms of the coalition government had been to remove local and regional structures.

So hopefully this might be something the Labour Party nationally could champion in their response to the government’s exit plans.

(Interestingly there were two reports on Newsnight later that night which reinforced everything that Jack was saying: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000hr18/newsnight-30042020. At 8 or 9 minutes an item on the variety of impact in different places across the country and the need for a local response. And at 31 minutes a report on South Africa which started out on this process at the same time as the UK, followed the same trajectory till 26th March and then while UK deaths continued to soar, SA’s fell away. The reasons: tough lockdown 10 days earlier than UK and 30,000 community health workers. Very well worth watching).

Thanks, Jack! More information and links to media coverage of the pilot on their website: www.communitycontacttracers.com/^

Can't see an app on its own working very well personally. Lots of older people will struggle to engage. Suspect it will be another headline and another load of cash chucked at a tory donor for something that doesn't really work.

Italics fail

Had two patients last night who had ordered online tests one never received it the other never received result