Westminstenders: Following the EU lead

[RedToothBrush]

Coronavirus poses a particularly Irish shaped question. How the UK responds to Irish plans for ending lockdown and whether Arlene continues to back an all Ireland plan will be fascinating to watch and see justified regardless of which way we go.

The UK for all its new found independence is looking very closely to the success / failure of EU strategies before making our own plan public. Mainly because we've yet to write one.

Johnson hasn't led much. He's delegated. Yet he gets all the praise for doing the sum total of fuck all and never being the bad guy. There always another fall guy to blame.

Economically we are stuffed and promises of a very quick bounce back don't look likely based on public confidence and willingness to return to places like pubs restaurants and shops.

Our ability to adapt to new conditions at short notice has been tested and businesses can not afford to do this again soon.

This is the background to which we go into talks. Both sides need an extension to serve their best interests. Johnson is determined to cut our nose of to spite our face for the sake of his legacy and to keep those paying the back handers and dodging tax happy.

Singasonga, I did have similar thoughts to you about the impartiality of that code critique, but various well-informed posters here seem to think that the criticisms are valid. Also, to your point about peer review, it’s generally anonymous as well, unless you’re just talking about colleagues having an informal look at each other’s work?

imo, the Imperial model is a useful squirrel to have in the cupboard

Fundamental modelling rule:

Without sufficient reasonably accurate data, models are no more accurate than back of the envelope calculations
by experts in the field that is being modelled.

Whitty, as CMO, calculating the "reasonable worst case" (80% x 67 million x max 1%)
would have been the one driving policy,
not modellers who are not even permanent civil servants

Any responsible govt must plan for reasonable worst case, with a completely novel virus
and Italy experiencing mass deaths

Merkel quoted 70% not 80% from her advisers,
but otherwise much the same back of the envelope maths from her epidemiologists and virologists

It's like some smelly rug salesman (in both senses) came up and whispered in BJ's ear: Dirty Postcard, Effendi? And you want buy PPE? Very Very Good......

"VIRAL SHAMBLES Coronavirus farce as Spain ‘forced to send back SECOND batch of faulty test kits from China to replace the first.’"

"The Managing Director of Finland's National Emergency Supply Agency, Tomi Lounema, resigned over the weekend after he admitted to having spent €10 million (US$11 million) on medical masks that were not up to hospital standards."

"Nurses' gowns disintegrate as soon as they are worn in shocking footage from French hospital treating coronavirus patients."

"Authorities in Italy and China are also investigating how a consignment of respirators sent by China to Italy as a gesture of goodwill ended up for sale in a department store in the small town of Letovice in the Czech Republic."

thanks @BigChocFrenzy

my confidence in this omnishambles is rock bottom

Of course the govt need someone to blame if it turns out their decision of lockdown was not necessary
So the Imperial squirrel may come in handy

However, we are looking at UK deaths with lockdown
so the logic of saying those deaths don't justify lockdown baffles me

"You took antibiotics and you have no more infection, so you never needed the antibiotics ?"

We can compare 2 v similar Scandinavian neighbours, Norway (lockdown) and Sweden (voluntary distancing)
and see that Sweden has multiple more deaths, even normalised for population size

Multiples of Italy / France / Spain deaths are not something a responsible UK govt could risk unless they are certain the risk is v low
which they couldn't be with a novel virus

However,
You can rarely convince someone of facts when their income & wealth & kids' future look much better if they believe something else

consignment of respirators sent by China to Italy as a gesture of goodwill ended up for sale in a department store

Anyone else hear the Are You Being Served ? theme music when they read that ?

Any dud equipment should be destroyed, not sold on

I'd be too worried about the UK govt buying it and giving it to squid and her colleagues

Exactly Squid. And I just feel very sad. It could have been handled so differently.

The Donkeys new film:

mobile.twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1258282699472715776

Listening I have assumed that the Imperial model is mainly something to impress / distract the public,
both earlier to convince about lockdown and later if an expendable scapegoat is needed

(Whitty & Vallance are probably too well-protected)

This squirrel is doing a brilliant job atm:
so much time wasted obsessing on that
and hence much less attention paid to the lack of testing, lack of PPE, BAME staff casualty rate, restricted admissions to hospitals, poor organisation and late decisions

Government decisions would be made on the basis of advice by:

the CMO - who used his back of the envelope calculation plus his own Dept of health modellers - and
the Chief Scientific Adviser

Countries around the world - like Germany - used their own advisers and modellers but independently came to the same decision: lockdown

.

Listening- I absolutely agreed with the lockdown, but it should have been used to slow the rate of infection while track and trace was ramped up.

Instead they completely fucked that up, from what I can see - there is no improvement. My unscientific opinion is hometesting is as useful as a chocolate teapot.
So strategy is now - discredit the science, via Ferguson.... start talking about lifting restrictions (not in parliament though where it could be debated properly) .... and the general public will go out and start spreading it again..... oh well it's all the public's fault - we never actually said that restrictions were lifted, we still wanted to look at another couple of days data.... it's all your fault and it's too hard to go back, so well loads of people are going to die and it's all on you.....it's quite a good narrative and shifts the blame nicely.

We can compare 2 v similar Scandinavian neighbours, Norway (lockdown) and Sweden (voluntary distancing) and see that Sweden has multiple more deaths, even normalised for population size.

Not sure their immigrant population is very similar - more refugees in Sweden. Housing probably closer together as well.

"The Hidden Flaw in Sweden’s Anti-Lockdown Strategy."
"The government expects citizens to freely follow its advice—but not all ethnic groups have equal access to expertise."

"a survey by Stockholm health authorities, which showed that some of the capital’s immigrant-dense suburbs were among the hardest hit by the virus.The Rinkeby-Kista district in the north was the worst affected, with 238 confirmed cases as of April 6.That is the equivalent of 47 cases per 10,000 residents, which is more than three times higher than the regional average of 13 cases per 10,000 residents." ...

"But for the writer and activist Nuri Kino, who has been focused on the pandemic’s impact on immigrants and in particular on his own community of Assyrians/Syriacs in Sweden, it is still hard to get certain messages across to the authorities and the media because of a prevalent fear of stigmatizing immigrant communities.“I’ve tried to raise the alarm over the fact that many of those who live in these hard-hit areas work in nursing homes and as home carers and they do not have enough protective equipment,” said Kino, who himself ran a home care service firm for two years.“I understand this is a sensitive matter because it can lead to a blame game, but there’s a risk factor here that we should at least consider.”

foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/21/sweden-coronavirus-anti-lockdown-immigrants/

Once again, is Dilbert trolling ?

MrsL
My unscientific opinion is home testing is as useful as a chocolate teapot.
luckily the Editor of New Scientist agrees with you

Ooohhhh so pleased I am in such good company!😂😂😂😂

Once again, is Dilbert trolling?

Dilbert is a Trump supporter? The magazine I linked to endorsed Hilary Clinton - I did check that before I posted - in case it was a dodgy website.

"You go to war with the resources you have"
is classic military, neither right nor left

(as all militaries through the ages have tended to find themselves neglected and under-equipped when suddenly they have to go to war)

Disappointing, Clavinova That you have again looked to blame immigrants for problems.

This time for COVID deaths in Sweden - but they are about 10 x higher than their neighbours,
so even 3 x the death rate of a small minority would not be causing that

The far right in Sweden are also blaming non-European foreigners

"many of those who live in these hard-hit areas work in nursing homes and as home carers and they do not have enough protective equipment”

So it's like blaming BAME doctors, nurses, care staff, public transport workers in the UK,
who are also dying in higher numbers, for the UK death rate

Another aphorism: “all models are wrong but some are useful.“

I agree this not about code. It’s just basic maths + worst case scenario that has to be addressed.

When it comes to relaxing lockdown,
the Uk is in the excellent position of being able to look at other countries doing this 2-3 weeks ahead

If all goes well, the UK can join them, taking what worked best elsewhere
but if death rates rocket in Germany, France, Spain ... then the UK will know to hold back.

Even after relaxing measures, the Uk can keep this 2-3 week advance warning

... I wish Germany had some other countries for guinea pigs !

Of course the govt need someone to blame if it turns out their decision of lockdown was not necessary
So the Imperial squirrel may come in handy

Some in the UK are looking for an early relaxation of the rules they've drummed into our heads for weeks.

We are going from a strong 'keep 2 metres away' whilst outside as its unsafe to be closer, to talk of relaxing the rule to 1m inside in confined spaces being safe to allow the economy to reopen.

And we locked down later and are thinking about coming out of lockdown earlier than other countries which have reduced the death rate to a much lower level.

My point being there is already something of a reverse ferret ongoing within the uk media.

The BBC are running a story today entitled 'Is it time to Free the healthy and shield the vulnerable'. Thread about it here:
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3901936-Is-it-time-to-Free-the-healthy-and-shield-the-vulnerable

As I say on that thread there is some really questionable language framing going on there, which is designed to put for the end of lockdown rather than ask the more pertinant questions about economic decision making and political will. Its all very... well Trumpian...

BigChocFrenzy

I quoted Nuri Kino - Swedish-Assyrian/Syriac award-winning investigative journalist, documentary filmmaker, author and human rights expert...

"He has won awards for his reporting on human-rights issues, and is the founder of human rights organization A Demand For Action (ADFA) which advocates for persecuted minorities in Iraq, Syria,Turkey and elsewhere in the Middle East."

Clavinova I'm aware who he is

He was concerned about the increased risk to then immigrant community,

He has never - unlike you - implied that higher deaths of a small minority are responsible for Sweden havig 10 x the death rate of its neighbours

You consistently seek out any story to distort and blame immigrants for problems in Western countries.