Westminstenders: Following the EU lead

[RedToothBrush]

Coronavirus poses a particularly Irish shaped question. How the UK responds to Irish plans for ending lockdown and whether Arlene continues to back an all Ireland plan will be fascinating to watch and see justified regardless of which way we go.

The UK for all its new found independence is looking very closely to the success / failure of EU strategies before making our own plan public. Mainly because we've yet to write one.

Johnson hasn't led much. He's delegated. Yet he gets all the praise for doing the sum total of fuck all and never being the bad guy. There always another fall guy to blame.

Economically we are stuffed and promises of a very quick bounce back don't look likely based on public confidence and willingness to return to places like pubs restaurants and shops.

Our ability to adapt to new conditions at short notice has been tested and businesses can not afford to do this again soon.

This is the background to which we go into talks. Both sides need an extension to serve their best interests. Johnson is determined to cut our nose of to spite our face for the sake of his legacy and to keep those paying the back handers and dodging tax happy.

That list of "signs things are really fucked" gets longer by the second...

Cue the UK having to have a fire sale in the talks and give it all away.[] Would that get around breaking an International Treaty?

The UK really is thick enough to believe it's hoodwinked the Rest Of The World with NI. And it will suit Americans to play along with the delusion as long as it's too their advantage. The moment reality bites (I refer you to the late much missed Feynman) it will just be the trap springing shut. The "deal" will suddenly wilt to "The UK does what we say" and that's that.

Remember, that US deal will mean the US gets the final say over all subsequent deals. That's one reason it has to come first.

The EU aren't stupid. They know it's going to be no deal. The only people who don't is the UK public - well what's left of it.

The EU aren't stupid. They know it's going to be no deal. The only people who don't is the UK public - well what's left of it.

I am 100% sure that the only deal Johnson and his right wing want is one with the USA. If it all goes tits up for the UK as a whole, they as individuals will bugger of there in pretty short order.

It all makes me feel sick. I wonder if this is how people felt when the Nazis took hold, or the Iron Curtain went up - thinking when will this end?

I am 100% sure that the only deal Johnson and his right wing want is one with the USA.

It's the only deal we'll get. Once it's in place the "material interests of the US" clause will prevent any deal with the EU - or anyone else.

Clearly it was getting too obvious that the UK was going to end up with no deal, so Boris and chums had to cook up an atmosphere where it seemed it was off the table to suck in more ponzi money for the Arron Banks and Crispin Odeys of this world. No deal has to come as enough of a surprise that they'll make money on it happening.

Once the Brexit vote was "honoured" the UK was never going to get a deal.

Not sure how serious Jenni Russell's suggested Govt of All Talents is meant to be. Her point, which she damages, is about BJ's useless cabinet of nonentities. Even Thatcher's "Vegetables" were towering statespersonages compared to this lot.

Meanwhile, this school meals voucher car crash looks a lot like the old thinking. Where the temporarily laid-off middle classes get the money, no questions asked, the feckless scrounging poor have to jump through hoops and supply non-functioning codes for non-functioning vouchers, in case they spend their children's dinner money on Special Brew and scratch cards.

...

I type "fire sale" and within seconds, this pops up on Facebook ...

The only thing you can say to the NHS contracts thing is at least they are all seen to be making a mess of it.

The doctor sums up my thoughts, LQ. Especially as Matt Hancock went on about it being our duty to download it. Ha, no. What do that lot know about duty?!

Peregrina I daresay the NHS will still get the blame when it inevitably goes horribly wrong (more wrong that it has already/when people notice it's gone wrong)

The US Congress will block any US-UK trade deal that breaks the WA NI Protocol
and it will anyway be a very one-sided trade deal in the US favour, whoever is POTUS.

I don't know why anyone still believes in the "Special Relationship",
which only ever existed in the minds of some starry-eyed Atlanticists

So BJ will either give in then, or give in at the last moment this year,
but the NI protocol - which he signed up to - will be upheld in the end

Hopefully not after the UK is taken to the World Court
and hopefully not before every other country in the world decides it is not worth having international agreements with a country that breaks them as soon as the ink is dry

BJ's piffle doesn't work on legally binding international treaties, any more than it does on a virus.

Probably BJ will try to frame a US deal as "saving the NHS"

It seems the NHS is the wedge issue he has decided works for anything:

Brexit, COVID lockdown..

• so why not a US deal too, if the NHS collapses under a 2nd wave this winter

The only deal that Trump will sign is one that he can proclaim as a win

as BCF rightly says, the legislature will not sign any deal that undermines James baker's work in the 90's

there is a decent chance that Trump will lose the November election

so there will be no US trade deal before the end of 2021
and there will be no EU trade deal before the end of 2021
and the isolationist stance of countries like New Zealand do not bode well for trade in general

more Turnips anybody?

^So BJ will either give in then, or give in at the last moment this year,
but the NI protocol - which he signed up to - will be upheld in the end^

Do you know something ?

I'd have a line on my plan where it isn't.

Because refusing to plan for something because it's inconceivable doesn't reduce the chances of that event happening.

You'd have thought we'd all know that now, given present circumstances.

Only countries with political clout can get away with breaking international treaties and the UK no longer has that clout.

Brexiters may think they can flout international law and courts like the USA can

That only works for a superpower
which admittedly some Brexiters think the UK still is

Reneging on the NI Protocol would end with a national humiliation as bad as when the USA slapped us down during the Suez crisis (year of my birth !)
but this would be most of the world joining in the kicking

Realistically, I don't see any UK govt, whether under BJ or anyone else, standing up to that for 2 minutes before running away

I thought that 27 Dec French case might get a mention on here. Please take a look at this review of the evidence: twitter.com/GaetanBurgio/status/1257629311487496195.

Executive summary: it is fairly weak, the test looks like a false positive.

Interesting. Thanks!

Looks like the UK death toll is going to be the highest in Europe.

Finally - at least we're good at something.

USA: Eat our shorts !

Yes, MShip It's not a very convincing study and retrospective analysis will not be a priority. To be honest there's enough controversy to be found from our lack of community testing and use of proven methods to date without other claims muddying the waters.

There will be no further extension, fudge or delay. Trump will win the mid terms in November and we will get a deal with the US, sooner rather than later. That will piss the EU off which is why their stance is both punitive and obstructive. However there are fault lines within the EU 27 and the reality is that they cannot simply ignore the UK - the Gilets Jaunes will be a picnic to the French Fishmen, believe me. It will a game of brinkmanship but Boris Johnson is not Theresa May or John Major. He will take it to the wire, probably making a visit to the Scottish and English fishing ports the day before. Many people , including the EU , see him as a clown. The reality is it is unwise to underestimate him. He has a remarkable habit of winning.

The November elections aren't mid terms, Annie. They're full on presidential elections. Though sadly you are right in thinking that Trump will probably be re-elected.

Your faith in Boris is really sweet.

Scottish government out ahead of the pack again: www.ideas.gov.scot/covid-19-a-framework-for-decision-making They're actually asking people what they think.

He will take it to the wire, probably making a visit to the Scottish and English fishing ports the day before.

Is he going to smoke a kipper like Churchill smoked cigars? He'd do well to visit a car plant the day before crash out.

Fishing is 0.12% of the overall economy, and less than 0.1% of the 33 million strong national workforce.

Less than timber, leather, woodworking and travel agency etc.
And the financial services industry... is worth £119bn (or 6.5% of economic output)

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46372153

Of course these figures may change with the economic shock we’re about to experience.

I fully expect Johnson to cave in on fishing - it is now such a small part of our economy, helped in part by Westminster allowing UK quotas to be sold off.

Haven't we already had a foretaste? I only half remember now, although it was only last summer. It was to do with the Channel Island fishermen insisting on access to French ports. The French blockaded them and their catches rotted.

Ditto with everything else Johnson does - no customs barrier in the Irish Sea, but he happily signs up to an International treaty which calls for exactly this. But he's so big and important, he is going to ignore an International Treaty.....