Westministenders: Peak something

[BigChocFrenzy]

Westministenders: Peak something

The story so far

COVID has changed the world for the next few years, like a slowly exploding nuke:

• killed well over 100,000 people
• made many people afraid to leave their home
• caused a Global Depression

Countries locked down because they needed the extra time to

Raise the Line while Flattening the Curve:

1. Flatten the curve of the numbers needing healthcare to a level the system can manage

2. Raise the capacity of their health services and public health systems - their testing and tracking process

Also, scientists desperately needed time to find out more about COVID:
how to avoid it, how to treat it

What happens next ?

Research teams around the world are working to produce a vaccine,
will become hopefully available within the next couple of years

In the meantime, treatment procedures are being developed to better treat COVID sufferers.

Also in the meantime, countries will need to gradually exit lockdown to rescue their economies from complete catastrophe.

Timing & measures for each country will be dependent on:

Death rate after peak,
health service capacity,
testing & tracing capacity etc

....and also what their govt and public deem an "acceptable" level of extra deaths & serious illness.

Possibly some countries will need to cycle in and out of lockdown,
whereas others will be able to accept the death toll with lesser social distancing measures.

The first few countries are already relaxing lockdown,
so the UK will watch, wait and hopefully learn what works and what doesn't

..... then copy these the correct way round

because there will be no "Normal" economy until most people feel safe to resume what was their normal daily activities.
They feel safe to stand in huge crowds of a Thursday evening clapping ....

The vast bulk of the population think no further than their next wage packet
As soon as they are allowed to go back to the pub and the football and the beach they will
They have no concept of risk and probabilities and statistics.

These threads are an utter bubble (as we discovered with the December 2019 election result)
Look at the Comments on any BBC news story - they cannot wait for the end of Lockdown and then Brexit.

I am desperate for the economy to restart because only the most selfish of financially insulated people are not.

Some people will behave "normally" after lockdown, but a significant proportion won't and they may well be the people with the greatest spending power. Middle aged people still in the work force or young retired, the "worried well". They will stay at home and reign in spending, even though they may be the least affected financially.

Tbh as a 50 something asthmatic I won't be travelling or spending normally in the near future because I have a history of severe viral chest infections, a disabled partner and 2 teenage children to support. I have plenty of money while I am still working (my job isn't currently at risk) and nothing to spend it on. I could buy a car but where would I go? And I cant imagine getting on a plane or a train in the near future.

There is no scenario in which the virus circulates freely and the economy returns to normal. None. You have to force the infection rate low enough so that you can effectively adopt Asian test and trace strategies, and even that won't be enough if you relax border restrictions.

OTOH the Chinese economy does seem to be recovering quite strongly, BUT they basically have almost no cases apart from imported ones.

BUT they say they basically have almost no cases apart from imported ones.

There is no scenario in which the virus circulates freely and the economy returns to normal.
I quite agree.
There will be varying levels of lockdown for at least a year
until herd immunity actually does happen
because a vaccine will arrive too late

But at the moment (according to the ONS stats)
non productive post working age people are dying
potentially productive young working age people are locked down.

Its not a recipe that will lead to the left behinds feeling enfranchised in future ....

I am also desperate for the economy to restart

• but not if doing so kills hundreds of thousands within a few months

(selfishly) I am desperate for gyms and restaurants to reopen, but we have been warned that is months away still

We have to go cautiously, step by step and slam on the breaks if exponential growth restarts

• which is the strategy most Western governments are adopting.

It is ludicrous to suppose people would continue to go to work, send kids to schools, go out for paid entertainment .... during mass deaths

We'll have enough trouble restarting the economy in June, even though the danger should be lower then
As soon as deaths start rising again, teachers and pupils will stay home again and force the govt's hand, as in March.

Re;testing and false negatives .... it was very well known in China that this was a problem - end of January I think it was I read an article where a Chinese medic said they were performing CT scans to confirm as it was very easy to see on these. Obviously they have to show signs, but got the impression that they didn't need to be ICU level of sickness to see the changes. (Unlike an x-day I think)

With regards to people dying in care homes and at hone of this disease- I can't tell you how much this idea distressed me. Having sat with my Dad dying of respiratory distress- I can't imagine how awful it would be to go through that without the support if morphine to ease the symptoms.

Gowns - well what a fuck up that has been. Even the BBC is being critical - manufacturing association on TV this afternoon- obviously fucked if and frustrated as they have offered help , but as they are not a name (Burberry/Barbour) the haven't heard anything.

It's criminal in its negligence.

The "left behinds" in Brexit were more culturally left behind than financially
It was the wishes of the old outnumbering the needs of the young

However, 50% of people hospitalised are under 60, working age
How many of the young and middle-aged would die if the health system is overwhelmed so that most cannot get into hospital ?

How many would continue to work facing such prospects, while the old stay safely home ?
There would be a de facto shutdown and to avoid mass civil disorder any govt would have to supply sufficient income to live

Although I hope the house arrest aspect of lockdown ends soon for us all,
in practice, the jobs available for many young people will be very restricted until the rest of the population

• especially the affluent older middle aged & elderly with high spending power - feels safe to go out in their leisure time and spend money

Channel 4 News are having a good war.

Jeremy Hunt has just been skewered: Who was it ran down our ventilators and ICU beds? Who was Health Secretary when that happened, Jezza?

Jezza says mistakes were made and lessons will be learned.

The passive voice will be used.

Meanwhile Handcock says he doesn't have a magic wand. He should let go of his wand and do his fucking job.

All this focus on Rolls-Royce and Burberry is all about govt. wanting to associate itself with those brands. Its the little firms in sheds on industrial estates who are agile enough to take up the slack, but they've been ignored.

Oh, and the supermarket vouchers to replace free school meals don't work. As Prof Peter Townsend said, a service only for the poor will always be a poor service.

re people dying in care homes and at home:

Regardless of whether they are very old, or have LDs or severe disability,
it is inhumane to just leave people without effective treatment
They can still feel distress, pain, terror at not being able to breathe

It doesn't fool anyone to sidetrack this onto dramatic measures like CPR and ventilators for 105-year-olds,
which is not what anyone is demanding

So glad they skewered Hunt - a lot of this was on his watch and I was amazed he had the audacity to pop up so soon after it became clear UK was floundering when the public forced BoZo to lockdown.

I think the spending power of the nation, as we know mainly only the elderly have savings, is dependent on whether people get paid by the govt this month. It will be amazing if it is glitch free, seeing the state of the benefits system. Businesses may find people aren't as willing to part with their cash for some months yet.

Latest scandalous reinvention of shortages of PPE

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/nhs-staff-to-be-asked-to-treat-coronavirus-patients-without-gowns

No more PPE til Monday.

Don't get sick at the weekend, it's irresponsible of you.

However, 50% of people hospitalised are under 60, working age
Link please cos my google skills are clearly failing me today

I've been away from these threads for quite some time, the Election result nearly finished me off, but I have to say, I love your posts Mockers - an excellent addition to the crew!

I do think we need to remember that China also, as pp have said, had inaccurate testing. They developed it to where it is now, pretty much. Therefore, their mortality rate has a better excuse than ours, because not only were they ground zero, but they had to do the groundwork to fight the fire with zero international help. I do think they've fudged figures, knowingly or not, but it is no worse than what is happening here. The only thing it might have changed was the speed of WHO calling it a pandemic (I think should have been 2 weeks earlier) but even when they did Bozo and Trump did little about it.

Remember how we've talked about the financial collaspe of local government before.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52331282
Coronavirus: English councils 'on brink of financial failure'

Councils in England have warned that the coronavirus crisis is pushing them to the brink of financial failure.

The Local Government Association (LGA) said without more funding some authorities would be forced to cut "vital" services.

Councils face increased costs from supporting vulnerable people, while income from fees and rates is falling.

The government said it was providing £1.6bn extra to help them "provide services" during the pandemic.

The LGA welcomed this, but said more money was needed and called for a "cast-iron commitment" to cover the costs of coronavirus-related work.

Led by Donkeys... excellent video plea by NHS staff for PPE:

twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1251042037941653506

I think end of May loosening of lockdown. I reckon the govt know they have a serious CV outbreak on their hands - worse than many other countries.

I mainly lurk on these threads and hardly ever post, you all say it much more eloquently than I ever could and I always seem to be reading frantically to keep up. However, some analysis suggesting that actual “excess deaths” could be over 70% higher than reported deaths from the virus compared to the same period last year - though may be deaths from other causes where people haven’t sought medical attention as well as deaths from the virus?
www.actuaries.org.uk/system/files/field/document/Mortality%20monitor%20Week%2014%202020%20v01%202020-04-14.pdf

Listening Written links, unlike TV reports, are mostly those in ICU,
where there would be a much higher average age.
But what I have shows a hefty % of working age people

UK
In ICU, mean age 60

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/76a7364b-4b76-ea11-9124-00505601089b

In France, more than half of coronavirus patients in intensive care are under 60

https://www.businessinsider.com/half-of-french-coronavirus-intensive-care-patients-are-under-60-2020-3?r=DE&IR=T

USA:

CDC: 55% of hospital admission admissions , 47% of ICU , 20% of deaths are for age < 65

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?

Nearly 40% of those hospitalised were age 20-54:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-young-people.html

New York:

https://thecity.nyc/2020/03/one-in-four-nyc-hospital-virus-patients-is-under-age-50.html

25% of admissions are for age < 50

DGR

Does Russia have a shale gas industry? [] No.

Neither does my Uncle Festus. Not quite sure what that proves when discussing events of 34 years ago, but I'll play: "Snickers" used to be called "Marathon". Your go.

I do love it when you get all defensive when called out on your pontifications.

Pipkin
Interesting - so a very mild winter led to a lower end of normal death rate that is now catching up.

BigChoc
ICNARC table 1 median age is 61 ...

All of the newspaper stories I will treat as gossip until I see .gov in the links (particularly those from the USA which does not have universal healthcare)

Prof Neil Ferguson suggests there has been more planning for Brexit than Covid-19

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/uk-needs-lockdown-exit-strategy-says-key-coronavirus-adviser

"We need to put in place an infrastructure, a command and control structure, a novel organisation.

I’m reminded we had a department for Brexit for government.
That was a major national emergency and we are faced with something even larger than Brexit
< x 1000 >
And yet I don’t quite see the evidence for that level of organisation.
I’d like to see measures accelerated.”
...
"We will have to retain some level of social distancing indefinitely until we have a vaccine available.”

He said there now needed to be a "single-minded emphasis on scaling up testing and contact tracing”.

He argued that a huge infrastructure of testing and contact tracing would need to be in place in order for the lockdown to be lifted without further peaks

www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/world/europe/coronavirus-antibody-test-uk.html

U.K. Paid $20 Million for New Coronavirus Tests. They Didn’t Work.

Facing a global scramble for materials, British officials bought millions of unproven kits from China in a gamble that became an embarrassment.

LONDON — The two Chinese companies were offering a risky proposition: two million home test kits said to detect antibodies for the coronavirus for at least $20 million, take it or leave it.

The asking price was high, the technology was unproven and the money had to be paid upfront. And the buyer would be required to pick up the crate loads of test kits from a facility in China.

Yet British officials took the deal, according to a senior civil servant involved, then confidently promised tests would be available at pharmacies in as little as two weeks. “As simple as a pregnancy test,” gushed Prime Minister Boris Johnson. “It has the potential to be a total game changer.”

There was one problem, however. The tests did not work.

Found to be insufficiently accurate by a laboratory at Oxford University, half a million of the tests are now gathering dust in storage. Another 1.5 million bought at a similar price from other sources have also gone unused. The fiasco has left embarrassed British officials scrambling to get back at least some of the money

Listening What about the CDC report with 55% of admissions being for under 65 ?
Are the CDC not governmenty enough ?
I certainly wouldn't believe Trump over them

"Governments" otherwise have not yet published data on hospitalisations wrt age, just ICU at the most

However, with a median age of 61 in ICU in the UK,
don't you think that the median age outside ICU would be considerably lower ?

“As simple as a pregnancy test,” gushed Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

He should stick to what he knows !

Bigchoc
In the USA, anybody without full insurance will not go to a hospital until they are critically ill.
Therefore US hospitals are getting more people tipped over the edge by covid who in any sane country would have had proper health care months and years before
that says nothing about the risk of covid
and everything about the shit US medical system

VA links I might trust as the VA offers cradle to grave for all its people