Westministenders: Peak something

[BigChocFrenzy]

Westministenders: Peak something

The story so far

COVID has changed the world for the next few years, like a slowly exploding nuke:

• killed well over 100,000 people
• made many people afraid to leave their home
• caused a Global Depression

Countries locked down because they needed the extra time to

Raise the Line while Flattening the Curve:

1. Flatten the curve of the numbers needing healthcare to a level the system can manage

2. Raise the capacity of their health services and public health systems - their testing and tracking process

Also, scientists desperately needed time to find out more about COVID:
how to avoid it, how to treat it

What happens next ?

Research teams around the world are working to produce a vaccine,
will become hopefully available within the next couple of years

In the meantime, treatment procedures are being developed to better treat COVID sufferers.

Also in the meantime, countries will need to gradually exit lockdown to rescue their economies from complete catastrophe.

Timing & measures for each country will be dependent on:

Death rate after peak,
health service capacity,
testing & tracing capacity etc

....and also what their govt and public deem an "acceptable" level of extra deaths & serious illness.

Possibly some countries will need to cycle in and out of lockdown,
whereas others will be able to accept the death toll with lesser social distancing measures.

The first few countries are already relaxing lockdown,
so the UK will watch, wait and hopefully learn what works and what doesn't

..... then copy these the correct way round

Trump supporters, even further rightwing groups, anti-vaxxers, dark Koch money

An ugly crew of often heavily armed demonstrators against lockdown / stay at home orders in Democratic states
Trump is egging them on

Coronavirus is another clash of cultures with polarised views
As usual the right express their views with weapons, for greater intimidation

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/far-right-coronavirus-protests-restrictions

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/17/trump-liberate-tweets-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders

U.K. Paid $20 Million for New Coronavirus Tests. They Didn’t Work.

This is what happens if you put PR man/lobbyist in charge of procuring tests. Lord Bethell. He funded Matt Hancock’s leadership bid. This is his thanks I guess.

I really do wonder at these PM's and Presidents so willing to kill of their voter base

*off

I thought those tests were the antibody tests that were dud? Was there another batch too? FGS.

I’m wondering if the average age of people in ICU being around 60yo is because anyone over 80/in care home isn’t taken to hospital anyway. So only the youngest are seen there (because they ought to be the ones with more chances of ‘surviving’)

I mean that the average age of people in hospital or ICU doesn’t say any thing about the average age of the people dying or who is more likely to get ill iyswim....

listening Even if lockdown were lifted tomorrow and your kids and your DH could look for any work they wanted,
unless they go in for care care work or selling / delivery groceries

... who will buy ?
So where are the jobs to go to ?

Most sectors will gradually be "unbanned", people can go out to work again and those who provide the essentials will be busy - more jobs there

But many people will just go to work to earn their wages, then come home, no going out for entertainment or shopping for fripperies
Even those who aren't scared of COVID may be skint, or feeling insecure and saving all theri spare.

Germany locked down on 16 March
For the preceding 2 weeks, I attended gym and restaurants for my usual 6 days / wk:

My local gym (I did classes only, no coffee or shower) - attendance 30-50% down
My local Rhine bistro, normally packed - about 25% full
Fav prize-winning regional restaurant in the next town - only 5-6 people there, I was the only luncher for the last couple of days

If all these places opened Monday, I wouldn't go to them now
Nor will many others, because they are not essential

They don't have that big a margin to continue with half their usual customers.
(I'm keeping my gym sub, in the hope they'll survive)

If the mean age in ICU is 60, I'd expect the mean age in hospital to be lower
.... unless any UK COVID case has to be turning blue for an ambulance to take them

This is really worth a watch: excerpts of the FT interview with Macron, subtitled in English.

twitter.com/carpedi56046538/status/1251240302440038400?s=21

I also think that the ‘getting real’ isn’t the right way to look at things.

I agree that things will change and tbh THIS IS A REALLY GOOD THING. They needed to because we have been facing a climate crisis for 20 years and no one has accepted that things needed to change for that to happen. We have our opportunity here to actually make things happen. Let’s grab it.
Whatever the future is, let’s make it a better future rather than going down the route of dark economic depression/raise of nationalism that we were starting to take.

I actually think that holding on the idea of vaccine as our saviour is not the right way to approach things. Vaccines won’t be ready for everyone for long time anyway. A safe vaccine even more so. (If people want to try them, fair enough as long as they actually know the risk they are taking. I know Id rather have the virus).
But mainly the issue is that many people equate a vaccine with being able to go back to a ‘normal life’. And I dint think it’s suitable (for the reason above - what about our OTHER very big catastrophe that we have so far refused to acknowledge??) .

And that’s wo talking about the fact this virus is mutating. Like all the CV. How are we going to deal with it if it behaves like the flu and we can’t actually vaccinate people for all the strains present that year?

BCF what is an essential job??
If you want hospitals, you need medicines and equipments. To get those, you need factories or manufacture them. To get them you need transport companies and trucks.
To have trucks you need repair shop and companies manufacturing those trucks ANd the spare parts (eg te tyres that need replacing very regularly)
You need petrol so they can run.
Etc... can’t you see that apart from basically the entertainment industry (aka theatres, gyms, coffee shops), most stuff is inter related and the system just cannot work wo the input of most companies.

So what will people buy? Well they might well be buying less. Esp not the frivolous stuff. Or the the things that they don’t really need. But they will need to buy clothes to go to work. They will need to repair their house, buy a new kitchen, repair their car. They will still go to the hairdresser and so on.....
And they might well still want to go to the gym because of its impact in their MH, because they want to get healthier/loose weight (obesity is a big factor it seems on how well you cope with the CV-19).

So yes things WILL change. But saying that people will not buy anything at all and there is no need for anything else bar the bare essential isn’t a true reflection of the reality imo.

I can't believe this Government! ICU workers now have to wash one use gowns because they haven't got enough???!!! That's the new directive!😮 I see this government do not value anyone's lives except their own! And wtf is Boris?? He's had long enough now to recuperate ffs! I'm so angry! I'm sorry folks for burdening you all with my anger😡💐

Well, we are now told that he was actually at death's door, although at the time he was supposedly working on his red boxes. But then we were also told that he wasn't on a ventilator. So was he at death's door or not?

QuestionMark I referred to the entertainment & hospitality industry as non-essentials
that people won't buy

However, other major sectors have been hit very badly and will take a long time to rebuild:

. aerospace obviously and all their suppliers
. automotive too, new cars are stacked up, unsold - expect more mergers / job cuts
. travel industry
. ads - because people aren't buying stuff
. newspapers - because the ads have dried up

Most people will be more careful with money

So have their hair cut, but maybe wash, tint set etc at home
maybe do nails at home too

New kitchen ?
Wait until they have rebuilt savings and their jobs are more secure

New car ?
Only if the old one is unreliable, otherwise keep the old one

New clothes ?
Yes if kids have outgrown them
Just for fashion, not so much

I've lived through previous recessions and heard first accounts of the 1920s / 1930s Depression from my late dad who grew up then

This is nothing like a recession, but even in recessions, most (non-wealthy) people cut right back on discretionary spending and big-ticket items

"If people want to try them, fair enough as long as they actually know the risk they are taking.
I know Id rather have the virus)"

Do you approve of the MMR ?

The measles vaccine was made compulsory in Germany last year, with CDU-SPD agreement, because of poor takeup, with fines of €2500 and other penalties if parents persist

I won't be surprised if the COVID vaccine is also compulsory here

Do you really expect a vaccine to kill tens of thousands in the UK ?

Even the "worst" vaccines are several orders of magnitude less risky than the diseases they protect against
unless maybe you freeload on the herd immunity of others .... that only works so long as not too many copy that

I would have the vaccine, so that I can resume my normal life
Until then, I'm only spending on Kindle books and ordering groceries online

I actually cried when I heard the Govts suggestion it was 'relaxing rules' to allow HCP's to wash and re-use single use PPE. That really got to me.

My DD fell off her bicycle after hitting a pothole on Thursday on her one day whilst cycling to get her shopping. She's a carer. She went straight over handlebars the only thing she didn't hit was her head. The rest of her body is black with bruises cuts and grazes. She rang up doc's because she thought she may have cracked a rib. 3 hours later he rings to tell her she's ok cis she can breath with no bad pain and not to go to a and e as he didn't think it an emergency. She rang her works who told her she can only have one day off cis of staff shortages. She can barely move and can only do light duties. Yet f PM can't sit in chair and actually do his f job! My DD looking after adult severe autistic clients twice the height and size of her. Her light duties consist of not walking with them for exercise but still has all other duties which I can assure you is not light work!

Sostenuto I feel the same as you. I'm in a very fortunate position; I have a nice home and garden, partner is working from home as am I ( kind of, part time), my student son is home with us, no health issues. But my fury at the government is a hot heavy load that I can only put down with a lot of effort. It's a constant effort to keep quiet and not take to the streets with a megaphone or batter down the door of Matt Hancock's home. It's frustrating that so few people around me are outraged. When my 90 year old neighbour expresses concern for the PM, a man who got the virus through his arrogant insouciance and then received far more care than she would get in the event of being infected, a man who sold his soul to be PM, I can't say to her, "I'm afraid you're wrong to trust anything this government says. I'm sorry to tell you they're fascists who either have no understanding of the human condition or just don't care because they have no moral capacity, empathy or imagination. You're wrong to assume they're doing their best in exceptional circumstances. They'd secretly be pleased if you and everyone else like you who they consider has no value, on account of not paying income tax quietly died at home. They've had such a dysfunctional upbringing that they genuinely feel entitled to a better, longer life than you." This government does the opposite of what a government should do. They create anxiety, encourage us to blame the very people who we all rely on, hide behind their stupid platitudes and tell lie after lie. They all give the appearance of having zero social skills, zero self awareness, zero intellect. Boris Johnson looks shifty and uncomfortable in himself. How can people not see that? Why are people alright with leaders who do not lead? Why aren't they bothered by the nasty things they've said about single mums (never single dads), BAME people, women?

As mrslaughan says, it is Criminal in its negligence

rogueantimatter

I hope it's okay but I wanted to say thank you SO much for your post.
I am now a single parent (after a 17 year marriage) and Carer to two kids with Autism and unable to work even part time as their needs and my own disability make it impossible. I did try incredibly hard to return to work last year and it made me really ill. Despite my GP telling me to stop, in writing, getting 'back' onto benefits was a nightmare. I am well aware that a significant minority (egged on by the Press) and the majority of those in this Govt consider me - as an uneconomic unit - to be a drain on society and (possibly?) 'better off dead'.
I try not to think of my children's future as it terrifies me. Posts like yours give me hope. I am very tearful tonight, so off to bed now, with your thoughtful and positive post in my mind - thank you x

Sostenuto I am also Enraged by this criminally negligent government

sos Your poor DD
That is outrageous treatment, total disregard for her health
Bastards

It is awful treatment from both doctor and work bcf. Am so fed up withit all. She has no voice, my Dgd has no voice and I'm back wearing calipers and crutches cos all my hospital appointments ( physio, Botox injections for keg and foot, podiatry and last cancer appointment) have been cancelled. In 3 weeks I've gone from almost independent to just sitting here wishing I could get out of the damn chair without excruciating pain! I know it's safer for me not to visit hospital but mentally am on brink!