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Brexit

Westministenders: Peak something

990 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 16/04/2020 15:05

Westministenders: Peak something

The story so far

COVID has changed the world for the next few years, like a slowly exploding nuke:

  • killed well over 100,000 people
  • made many people afraid to leave their home
  • caused a Global Depression

Countries locked down because they needed the extra time to

Raise the Line while Flattening the Curve:

  1. Flatten the curve of the numbers needing healthcare to a level the system can manage

  2. Raise the capacity of their health services and public health systems - their testing and tracking process

Also, scientists desperately needed time to find out more about COVID:
how to avoid it, how to treat it

What happens next ?

Research teams around the world are working to produce a vaccine,
will become hopefully available within the next couple of years

In the meantime, treatment procedures are being developed to better treat COVID sufferers.

Also in the meantime, countries will need to gradually exit lockdown to rescue their economies from complete catastrophe.

Timing & measures for each country will be dependent on:

Death rate after peak,
health service capacity,
testing & tracing capacity etc

....and also what their govt and public deem an "acceptable" level of extra deaths & serious illness.

Possibly some countries will need to cycle in and out of lockdown,
whereas others will be able to accept the death toll with lesser social distancing measures.

The first few countries are already relaxing lockdown,
so the UK will watch, wait and hopefully learn what works and what doesn't

..... then copy these the correct way round

Westministenders: Peak something
OP posts:
Thread gallery
43
mrslaughan · 18/04/2020 18:39

Dr Blackbird - my husband and I just had the same outraged discussion

I would be so fucked off - in fact I and fucked off on behalf of the virologist who actually has pertinent education and experience

DrBlackbird · 18/04/2020 18:54

Exactly MrsL Ok so it's best for news to have a balanced viewpoint but it wasn't lost on me either that the virologist was calm, sensible, and basing her views on evidence vs the vet who didn't see anything wrong with giving his free opinion based on ... what?!

BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2020 19:14

It'll be an astrologist next

OP posts:
DGRossetti · 18/04/2020 19:16

It'll be an astrologist next

Well the piano tuners had a good look ....

Horehound · 18/04/2020 19:29

@BigChocFrenzy do you think that once a vaccine is found the supplier will happily dish out the information for other countries to manufacture it? I doubt it!

yoikes · 18/04/2020 19:29

Might as well
They have as much idea whats going on as the cummings govt!

QueenOfThorns · 18/04/2020 19:40

@BigChocFrenzy do you think that once a vaccine is found the supplier will happily dish out the information for other countries to manufacture it? I doubt it!

It will certainly be published in the scientific press. The manuscript will undergo peer review and be thoroughly scrutinised. I don’t know enough about vaccines to know whether that would be enough for anyone else to manufacture it, but I can’t see anyone keeping it to themselves (unless Trump gets a say in it, the vile orange bastard).

BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2020 19:43

Horehound Yes, possibly under licence
If govt-financed, then may be free
Most governments - except Trump - have said the vaccine must be available for the world
Any company that attempted to keep that secret while thousands died would be trodden on very hard

There may well be several slightly different vaccines produced, as there are over 20 teams around the world working on a vaccine

OP posts:
catdoctor · 18/04/2020 20:00

Dick Sibley (the vet on Ch4 news) had worked extensively on bovine TB
healthcare-in-europe.com/en/news/using-vets-infectious-disease-know-how-to-end-covid-19-lockdown-uk-government-urged.html#

borntobequiet · 18/04/2020 20:08

It’s always unwise to dismiss the opinions of those with pertinent expertise on the grounds that one doesn’t understand how their expertise may be relevant.

catdoctor · 18/04/2020 20:17

I’m a vet.
I’m quite narked by the astrologist comment.
We are scientists, we are trained in epidemiology. My profession has been looking on aghast at the total disregard for basic disease control measures during the Covid epidemic (government driven).
There are vets and vet nurses currently being recruited by the NHS as back up staff so you better hope we have some knowledge.

ListeningQuietly · 18/04/2020 20:20

I admit that my views on any mass vaccination campaign are based on the stop polio campaign which has been part of my life since I was seven
and it has not succeeded yet

I will be delighted to be proven wrong about how incredibly efficient the world's healthcare systems are

but a global pandemic has to be treated at a global level
so national our healthcare system is fab arguments are no reassurance to me I'm afraid

and as for records of who lives in what countries from other countries
yeah right
NO country has a CLUE of who lives there
(in the UK the margin of error is around 2m people and in the USA 15m)

I'd love to be proved wrong
and that a vaccine can magically make us all safe for 18 months or so by the end of the year
but I'll lay more money on the whole thing being history within 3 years

mrslaughan · 18/04/2020 20:53

But cat doctor - bovine tb is a bacteria?
I also have an intimate knowledge of bio security measures on farms - I do get his point , and generally the whole PPE debacle fills me with horror (suggestion of using products across patients , re-using product that is for single use only). Broadly - yes I can see lots applies. But to say you just need to apply that in prisons - how ? Boot washes between cells?

I am not saying he is not a scientist- but he was talking down to someone whose specific area if science is what's involved here - not generally - and if you really want to get into it... because she's a youngish women? And he's an older white make so he must know better?

DGRossetti · 18/04/2020 21:06

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-38-days-when-britain-sleepwalked-into-disaster-hq3b9tlgh

[I am quoting some of the highlights because many here won't have a
subscription to get through the paywall]

Coronavirus: 38 days when Britain sleepwalked into disaster

Boris Johnson skipped five Cobra meetings on the virus, calls to order
protective gear were ignored and scientists’ warnings fell on deaf ears.
Failings in February may have cost thousands of lives

Unusually, Boris Johnson had been absent from Cobra. Johnson went on to
miss four further Cobra meetings on the virus. As Britain was hit by
unprecedented flooding, he completed the EU withdrawal, reshuffled his
cabinet and then went away to the grace-and-favour country retreat at
Chevening where he spent most of the two weeks over half-term with his
pregnant fiancée, Carrie Symonds.

It would not be until March 2 — another five weeks — that Johnson would
attend a Cobra meeting about the coronavirus. But by then it was almost
certainly too late. The virus had sneaked into our airports, our trains,
our workplaces and our homes. Britain was on course for one of the worst
infections of the most deadly virus to have hit the world in more than a
century.

Last week, a senior adviser to Downing Street broke ranks and blamed the
weeks of complacency on a failure of leadership in cabinet. In particular,
the prime minister was singled out.

“There’s no way you’re at war if your PM isn’t there,” the adviser said.
“And what you learn about Boris was he didn’t chair any meetings. He liked
his country breaks. He didn’t work weekends. It was like working for an
old-fashioned chief executive in a local authority 20 years ago. There was
a real sense that he didn’t do urgent crisis planning. It was exactly like
people feared he would be.”

An investigation has talked to scientists, academics, doctors, emergency
planners, public officials and politicians about the root of the crisis
and whether the government should have known sooner and acted more swiftly
to kick-start the Whitehall machine and put the NHS onto a war footing.

They told us that, contrary to the official line, Britain was in a poor
state of readiness for a pandemic. Emergency stockpiles of PPE had
severely dwindled and gone out of date after becoming a low priority in
the years of austerity cuts. The training to prepare key workers for a
pandemic had been put on hold for two years while contingency planning was
diverted to deal with a possible no-deal Brexit.

The need, for example, to boost emergency supplies of protective masks and
gowns for health workers was pressing, but little progress was made in
obtaining the items from the manufacturers, mainly in China.

Instead, the government sent supplies the other way — shipping 279,000
items of its depleted stockpile of protective equipment to China during
this period, following a request for help from the authorities there.

The growing alarm among scientists appears not to have been heard or
heeded by policy-makers. After the January 25 Cobra meeting, the chorus of
reassurance was not just from Hancock and the prime minister’s spokesman:
Whitty was confident too.

Several emergency planners and scientists said that the plans to protect
the UK in a pandemic had once been a top priority and had been well-funded
for a decade following the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001. But then
austerity cuts struck. “We were the envy of the world,” the source said,
“but pandemic planning became a casualty of the austerity years when there
were more pressing needs.”

The last rehearsal for a pandemic was a 2016 exercise codenamed Cygnus
which predicted the health service would collapse and highlighted a long
list of shortcomings — including, presciently, a lack of PPE and intensive
care ventilators.

But an equally lengthy list of recommendations to address the deficiencies
was never implemented. The source said preparations for a no-deal Brexit
“sucked all the blood out of pandemic planning” in the following years.

[There is much more in the article]

BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2020 21:32

Listening EOY is a pipedream; we're looking at EOY 2021

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ListeningQuietly · 18/04/2020 21:35

BCF
If you think most people would tolerate any sort of lockdown for the next 19 months I think you are pretty unusual.
Opera fans of my acquaintance have not cancelled their August 2020 Glyndebourne tickets

BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2020 21:38

BJ still isn't on the job (IYSWIM) - he has an excuse but he should step aside or step down

I so wish Hunt had won the leadership contest and become PM

  • and the latter half of that statement is one I never thought I'd post !

Hunt, besides being a ruthless bastard - which may be an asset during a pandemic - has an excellent grasp of how to fight a pandemic, which is the skill set we need at the top.

(yes, I know he hammered the NHS before - that's just being a Tory in normal times; this is a 1 in 100 years pandemic)

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2020 21:55

Listening I don't expect lockdown to last much after the 3 weeks
but I also don't expect the economy to restart properly, either

If deaths rocket again, what can any govt do, except lock down again ?
Are the public any more willing now to accept ¼ or ½ million deaths within a few weeks ?

Even if COVID stays under control, we have a Global Depression which is likely to take several years to recover from
Average real wages in the UK had only last year caught up to where they were before the 2008 GFC

People don't go out and spend when they are in fear of a deadly disease, or of losing their jobs
Many are skint and have no spare for entertainment or experiences

Those who can't WFH will only grudgingly go out to work - expect strikes, btw - then go home, stay home

Schools are another problem:
a substantial number of parents will refuse to send their kids until they are sure it is safe

  • even though kids are the safest groups

It's not just on MN - Parents & teachers are up in arms atm in Germany, as the govt has announced some school forms will go back on 4 May

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2020 21:57

I don't know anyone who goes to the opera
They won't be the average Brit, at those prices

The days of the professional mc going to the opera may be gone for some time,
even those who still have those professional mc jobs

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BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2020 22:01

Love goes on ....

www.theguardian.com/media/2020/apr/14/the-sun-woman-attraction-to-chandeliers-not-a-sexual-orientation-ipso-says

A British woman in a long-term relationship with a 92-year-old German chandelier has been told that her attraction to historic light fittings is not considered to be a protected sexual orientation.

OP posts:
DrBlackbird · 18/04/2020 22:01

Dr Sibley may well be an expert in his field and I would not dismiss the intelligence and diligence it takes to become a vet or his experience with bovine TB. However, it does not sit well with me to compare humans and cattle in terms of the benefits of a herd immunity management approach or how it's better to let the 'resilient' 60% back into work with such little understanding of and data on SARS-CoV-2. The view on the lack of testing and tracing has been said by others so nothing new there. I would still prefer to hear the views of a scientist trained in human disease transmission. Unless it was to listen to the need for caution about assumptions with respect to the correct/best disease management.

Mistigri · 18/04/2020 22:12

do you think that once a vaccine is found the supplier will happily dish out the information for other countries to manufacture it?

There may eventually be several vaccines made by different companies.

I don't think vaccination is a magic bullet - I think we are in for at least another 18 months of social distancing before any mass vaccination program can be rolled out. But if virologists think a vaccine is possible then I don't see any particular need to doubt that. Especially as massive resources are being thrown at it.

The main question mark is whether it's possible to safely and ethically shorten the length of time that promising vaccines spend in clinical trials. There are ways that you can speed things up (eg deliberately exposing healthy vaccinated people to the virus) but which raise ethical questions that will need to be debated.

ListeningQuietly · 18/04/2020 22:31

The days of the professional mc going to the opera may be gone for some time,
even those who still have those professional mc jobs
Rich pensioners and those who live on investments will still be going to arts events to see and be seen
and they will restart as soon as they can

Glyndebourne tickets are the same price as rugby / gig / festival
and lots of non MC types had already paid for theirs ....

BigChocFrenzy · 18/04/2020 22:34

imo, if human guinea pigs are used, they must be well rewarded instead of the usual few thousand quid
and there must be far more of them

  • the few drug trials I've read on healthy people seem to only have 10 people at a time

I know the ethical implications of the govt offering say 100k each to 1,000 healthy people who think they are immortal,
but this is a global & national emergency
(and 100 million is peanuts compared to the several billion per month cost of lockdown)

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JeSuisPoulet · 18/04/2020 22:36

I agree many parents won't send their kids back and it's not because we don't know they are in the safest risk category, it's because we don't want to pass it on to others. Many parents are potentially in various risk categories or may have grandparents living at home / elderly dependents. Plus as has been noted time and again viral load does seem to affect outcomes. Who's to say kids won't suffer later on?

in order to achieve some much less measurable and more uncertain future outcome? - catching up from the govt dilemma posted earlier re lockdown stages - doesn't this remind you of Brexit? How could we say Brexit would hurt the economy without having actually done it?