Westministenders: Peak something

[BigChocFrenzy]

Westministenders: Peak something

The story so far

COVID has changed the world for the next few years, like a slowly exploding nuke:

• killed well over 100,000 people
• made many people afraid to leave their home
• caused a Global Depression

Countries locked down because they needed the extra time to

Raise the Line while Flattening the Curve:

1. Flatten the curve of the numbers needing healthcare to a level the system can manage

2. Raise the capacity of their health services and public health systems - their testing and tracking process

Also, scientists desperately needed time to find out more about COVID:
how to avoid it, how to treat it

What happens next ?

Research teams around the world are working to produce a vaccine,
will become hopefully available within the next couple of years

In the meantime, treatment procedures are being developed to better treat COVID sufferers.

Also in the meantime, countries will need to gradually exit lockdown to rescue their economies from complete catastrophe.

Timing & measures for each country will be dependent on:

Death rate after peak,
health service capacity,
testing & tracing capacity etc

....and also what their govt and public deem an "acceptable" level of extra deaths & serious illness.

Possibly some countries will need to cycle in and out of lockdown,
whereas others will be able to accept the death toll with lesser social distancing measures.

The first few countries are already relaxing lockdown,
so the UK will watch, wait and hopefully learn what works and what doesn't

..... then copy these the correct way round

In western countries with developed healthcare system it should be possible to roll out vaccination quite quickly, we did it for swine flu (I remember attending a vaccination centre where all four of us had it done). The question is how quickly production can be ramped up.

This is true, but for min 60% herd immunity via vaccination we’d be talking 36 million vaccinations in this country alone.

It’s reported today that UK could possibly have 1 million vaccines ready by September. Sounds good, but if the government can’t manage to get large numbers of tests rolled out effectively, how will they cope with the logistics of even larger numbers of vaccinations?

It’s not clear yet whether covid sufferers themselves will stay immune and retain antibodies - there’s no proof that antibody response will be protective or that people can’t be reinfected. Only 10% of Italians had antibodies in one study. (And SARS antibodies seem to have worn off after a couple of years.)

I’d like to think vaccination is an antidote to this mess, but by the time sufficient numbers are vaccinated covid may peter out of its own accord like Spanish flu. If it does persist and we have repeated outbreaks over several years, that’s the scenario in which vaccination will really have an impact.

Some interesting claims from the tree-huggers that COVID19 will save more lives than it takes on account of the reduced pollution and road deaths.

Mockers
Bless 'em

PS this this made me laugh a lot earlier
www.facebook.com/VickyRiley/posts/10158375061068343

Some interesting claims from the tree-huggers that COVID19 will save more lives than it takes on account of the reduced pollution and road deaths.

That was reported over a month ago ... admittedly from China so you can see why it might have not featured in the media. (But now it's white people that aren't dying, it's news ? )

So there is actually a truth (that you know won't ever be heard) that there is an ongoing human cost to returning to "normal".

The current tricky food is tinned tomatoes

I think this is an "Italy" thing maybe.

We don't have any problems getting tinned tomatoes, but I have noticed that Parmesan and the Italian brands of pasta and sauce have been consistently out of stock. However, I've just been preparing my weekly order and the Barillo sauce that DS likes is back in stock for the first time in weeks (he hasn't gone without because I started Covid stocking in January when my Chinese colleagues were on lockdown ).

Supply lines from Spain are apparently not that much of a problem here - I volunteer for a fruit and veg delivery service and they are getting stuff wholesale straight from Spain with no issues.

Overall though logistics is a significant problem. At work we are taking 4 weeks to deliver where we'd normally need 3-4 days. The U.K. being at the end of supply chains probably means you are more exposed to shortages.

And that's without Brexit.

I don't know about the UK,
but German commentators have confidence that once a vaccine has been developed, German pharma can produce it in the vast quantities required
and then the public healthy system will vaccinate the country in record time

All those so desperate to get the economy back to "normal" had better hope that the vaccination won't be so difficult and long as they claim

.... because many middle-aged & elderly consumers like me won't budge until we can be vaccinated

• or until Trump's miracle has happened and COVID vanishes in a puff of smoke

I won't be buying anything non-essential until then, goods or services, let alone big ticket items.
I'm saving money and I can carry on like this permanently

• when I don't go out, I don't need 90% of what I used to buy

In China it is probably true that there is a net positive (short term) impact on mortality. Covid deaths in big polluted cities like Beijing have been very low.

Much less likely to be true in Europe where air is somewhat cleaner and Covid has hit big cities badly. French road deaths are way down though.

Any trip on the Autoroute and you will see a massive smash. French drivers are mental.

This vaccine is hoping for a lottery win. We still don't have an HIV vaccine.

I'm very confident that if a vaccine can be produced then European healthcare systems will roll it out very quickly, probably prioritising older people and those who get the flu vaccine for medical reasons initially. They will rope in pharmacies and other health care providers like they do for flu.

Once you have adequate supplies of cheap vaccine, the vaccination process is extremely scaleable IMO.

This vaccine is hoping for a lottery win. We still don't have an HIV vaccine.

I'm not a virologist but I would say that the virology community on social media mostly doesn't agree with this. An HIV vaccine is apparently a much harder thing to do (according to virologists). And we have very good treatments for HIV so there is less financial incentive to pour money into finding a vaccine.

In China it is probably true that there is a net positive (short term) impact on mortality. Covid deaths in big polluted cities like Beijing have been very low. [] Much less likely to be true in Europe where air is somewhat cleaner and Covid has hit big cities badly. French road deaths are way down though.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52113695

While there are less particulates, there is now more ozone (which suggests scientists haven't quite cracked the ozone cycle ....) which is poisonous and can irritate asthmatics and allegies ....

Once you have adequate supplies of cheap vaccine, the vaccination process is extremely scaleable IMO.
In theory yes, but it will be a case of dealing with more haste less speed

• who goes first ?
• who get included migrants and refugees?
• what proof will there be that somebody is vaccinated?
• what checks will there be on fraud?

And as some countries are, shall we say, more obedient than others, at what stage does Schengen restart ?

Here, it's still loo paper and sometimes pasta that are in short supply
but my serviced flat supplies loo paper and I rarely eat pasta

I get online delivery slots within 2 days, so I haven't been out shopping for well over a month and don't plan to
I*ve just ordered 10 more tins of tomatoes, no problems so far with those - I love tomatoes, but they are produced here as well - and in the UK & France

TV showed Rumanian pickers being flown in and commentators think domestic food supplies will be ok.
Exports may be down though and prices up ?

I don't know how self-sufficient Germany is in food, but looks like we may find out what's missing in September !

Olives and olive oil, I'm sure - those I'd miss
I live in farm and wine country, so most of the essentials should be covered

When did Romanians become Rumanians?

Is it a Brexit thing? Are we also going back to Bombay, Peking and Batavia?

Listening none of those are especially complicated questions to answer though. Who goes first? Well, old people and those with underlying conditions of course. Same as for flu. As for capturing people who don't have healthcare, during the H1N1 pandemic the French ran centres where you could just show up and get vaccinated, no need for your insurance card.

Of course some people won't want to get vaccinated and of course there will initially be a queue. But actually rolling out a vaccination programme is just a fairly ordinary public health task, albeit on a larger than usual scale.

This vaccine is hoping for a lottery win. We still don't have an HIV vaccine.^

Luckily HIV is much harder to catch than C-19 (unless I've been doing something wrong all these years ...). And there is (or was ) a well proven protocol for preventing the spread of HIV.

However be careful what you write ... I was listening to Donald Trump telling me how smart the virus is (or was that how smart Donald Trump is ?, I didn't have the subtitles on) ... Imagine a virus that spreads like C-19, but carries the payload of HIV.

And I can imagine worse than that ...

Listening You seem to be determined that vaccination won't work
Well until it does, neither will the economy, not fully

"who goes first ?"

The highest risk - the shielded, then the remaining elderly, the vulnerable, then the middle-aged
Healthy people under 20 go last

"Who get included migrants and refugees?"

How many are there in the UK, who are not actual residents ?
Far fewer than Farage & co claim
There will be much less fear of new refugees bringing in COVID once people in the UK etc are vaccinated, but I expect hostility will continue anyway.

"what proof will there be that somebody is vaccinated?

• what checks will there be on fraud?"

Fraud mainly matters for foreign trips
A register that can be accessed, as for checks on terrorists ?

I'd expect that if countries make that an entry requirement, then there would be jail and swingeing fines for fraud, even in European countries
In the USA - just don't try it.

Yes, employers may demand vaccination certificates
Forgery would be grounds for instant dismissal and possible charges, same as faking ID or UK residence to get a job

Mockers Switching between too many languages
I keep writing "maschine" as well

reduced pollution and road deaths

An elderly friend nearby who suffers from (late-onset) asthma tells me it’s much better recently. There is a lot less traffic round here. (Big town surrounded by country.) Lots of people walking, cycling and running. People greeting/talking to each other. Thanking each other for moving aside etc. I know lockdown can’t, and shouldn’t, last, but there is something nice about that aspect of it.

I hope we’re learning something.

Listening none of those are especially complicated questions to answer though.

Oh, I'm sure Matt, Dom(x2), Priti and the other shower or useless shits could make it very complicated indeed. And given their lack of clarity - or indeed thinking - on the matter, it's understandable LQ asks here.

But actually rolling out a vaccination programme is just a fairly ordinary public health task, albeit on a larger than usual scale.

Not when it’s a new illness on this kind of scale, it’s not the same as whacking out a flu vaccine. Like I said U.K. can’t even organise testing! I have great confidence in Germany being able to organise themselves, however.

The obvious first wave would be frontline workers, I don’t think we can make our elderly population the guinea pigs.

Oxford is saying a million by September, other places are saying 18 months. 6-18 months. It could mainly over in 18 months anyway.

If there was a vaccine good to go on Monday and we spent the next few months jabbing as many as possible, I can see that having an impact. But on the time frame available, I don’t see mass vacc being pivotal soon enough.

BCF
Blimey I wish that was true for me! :)
I'm baking much more too and my scales broke so had to get new weighing scales, then a new sieve, and then I bought a wax melt making kit! 🙄🤔😁
However, I haven't filled the car with petrol since 2nd week of February and no cafe coffees either so I should be much better off than I am!
Our food bill is huge now though...no online delivery slots with ANY supermarket available so I'm buying locally from the co op and from farm shops.
Fine but its £££££
Kids eating me out of house and home!

All you whiining docs and nurses, get yourself down to Tilbury Docks (or wherever) when Jenrick's ship comes in. All the PPE you'll need for the next few days.

Now stop moaning.

"Thou shalt have a fishy on a little dishy
Thou shalt have a mackerel when the boat comes in."

Anyone watching Channel 4 news and wondering why we're listening to a vet!?!