Westministenders: Lockdown continues

[BigChocFrenzy]

The UK has been on lockdown since 23 March,
with no end in sight.

The deaths peak is predicted to be around 17 April,
with the controversial IHME prediction that the UK will have considerably more total deaths - 66,000 - by summer than other European countries.

Supermarkets are struggling to satisfy demand for online slots for the vulnerable
and to keep shelves supplied for other customers

Like all countries, the UK economy is being hammered and heading for a deep recession.
Estimates are for UK GDP to fall 15% this year.

A million people have applied for Universal Credit
The self-employed and small - and some large - businesses are struggling to stay solvent.

They don't know how long to plan for.

The PM is in ICU and Raab has taken over as stand-in, but needs Cabinet approval for decisions.
Probably BJ will be unfit to resume his duties as PM for several weeks, if ever.

WIll he stand down soon and let the Cabinet choose a new PM,
or will the UK continue for weeks with a stand-in leader during the worst crisis since WW2

What's the plan, anybody?

Children going back to school = end of lockdown. This is just fodder for the govt to say this is what the public wants. Then they can continue with the "herd immunity" gamble because they haven't time to figure out a more effective route.

I would not be surprised if this is why Boris is asking for help from Behavioural Scientists, "Let's make them feel they can't cope unless we re-start the economy".

I think we need mass testing available until we even consider schools re-opening and people going back to work. If parents are worried about catching it or their kids catching it they will just keep them off school as they did pre lockdown.

I also dont think children wll be more at risk in Spetember. Risk level is liked with age and co-morbidities which are not going to change with the time of the year.
What could be happening is that children at school will bring back the virus and infect other, more vulnerable people.

The answer seems obvious to me. The people that need shielding and to be particulary careful are the ones in the at risk category.
For the rest of the population the BEST thing we can do is to ensure that people look after themselves so that their immune system is good (eg topping up on vitamin D during the winter...) rather than a blanket approach.

Which takes us back to UBI...?

While we (well I ) am talking about things we (well I ) expect the government to be doing (much shorter list than all the things they aren't doing) then another one is the entire management of any vaccination programme. Not the fine grain detail about dealing with refuseniks, but the broad brush picture of how the UK is going to manufacture (or source) the vaccine in quantities required (say 20 million doses ?) and then manage to get that vaccine into patients in a timely manner.

Even a million shots a day would take 3 weeks to compete.

It the lack of any discussion of matters that this that highlight how crap the UK is. These aren't the difficult questions. These are the easy ones.

Exactly DGR - they have no plan other than the original herd immunity, which is looking far more like rash eugenics.

Even Boris getting infected hasn't been enough to convince men over 40 that they might be next and they seem to want to plan everyone back at work again.

The main issue with vaccinations, given the UK no testing approach, is that we don't know who the vulnerable really are within our own population. It isn't just the elderly as was predominant in Italy (well, it might be if we can get the true data from care homes) but there are clearly other risk factors such as obesity, BAME, diabetes etc. One Chinese study (when they assumed smokers would have higher mortality) suggested smokers get the vaccine too. We have no idea because we have no such useful data.

@JeSuisPoulet UBI? (I have missed that acronym)

Sorry QuestionMark, Universal Basic Income. I was talking about suggestions on how to stop the economy from stalling without risking lives

BCF - sorry, belated reply. Have been battling with software that I need to use to take part in an important meeting at work, but that requires an OS at least three years younger than the one on my ancient work MacBook.

I realise the kids need to go back before Sept. I'd just have preferred June, not mid-May. TBH, nothing is certain as it will depend on the data (but it was important psychologically to give a date).

We are waiting for details and it has been said not all French kids will go back at the same time, with priority given to those in difficulty and who will suffer the most from being out of school. Perhaps half days for half classes, etc.

Even in a worst case no-immunity/recurring infection scenario, we're not all going to die are we? Unless the mortality rate increases dramatically.
Or am I missing sth?

But eugenics is already in place in the UK.

We know that about 50% of th deaths happen in care home.
We know that these deaths are not recorded as CV-19 deaths (no testing that is only done in hosp). Those people are left in care home to die wo treatment is the bottom line.

Its too late to talk about eugenics and the risk of. Its UNFORTUNATLY done and dusted here. I would suspect that al the people in care homes that could catch it will have done so by the end of the lockdown.

Yep, DG I've read that the vaccine itself might be developed in 12 months - best case - but that an extra 6 months is needed to produce all the millions of doses

I'd mentally added on 3 months for a vaccination program

We could be looking at 2 years

Mass testing before school opens isn't much good - painting the Forth Bridge comes to mind ....

Even Germany, with 500,000 tests per week, estimates 1 million per week is probably the limit

• so mass testing is not discussed here as a realistic option

Question I think that is a big assumption. Care homes have stopped visitors. As soon as kids are back in school families will be rushing to catch up with Great Aunt Maud at the first opportunity, assuming the risk to her life is over...

Nope you're not Auld. Despite all the shouts of how dangerous that virus is, its still less dangerous AND less contagious than malaria.
Many countries manage with malaria being endemic. And no one is thinking twice before going to country affected by malaria.

We will manage.

Piggywaspushed Tue 14-Apr-20 13:34:25
Nope, state school teachers don't get flu vaccine. We are the herd in every way.

I pay £14 each year at Boots. No way would I not pay if I was working in a school!

Re care homes. Its not an assumption JeSuis. These are the numbers all over europe (france, germany, italy, spain all have similar results) despite the care homes being closed to visitors, just ike they are here. I cant see any reason why this would not be the same in the UK. Its not as if we have been more stringeant.

The difference being we know what can protect against malaria and if big pharma would allow it, could simply vaccinate all kids on the planet where it is endemic. We have a control for that, see?

Re vaccine.
Having a vaccine ready in 2 years time is a dream. What we will have is the first phase of the trials. It normally takes 10~15 years to fully develop and TEST a vaccine.

I personally dont want to become a rat lab no more than I would be happy to take medication that hasnt been appropritely tested. Too many risks of dying even from tested medications.

Some people have natural immunity to some diseases at some time

We have v limited stats for COVID,
what % are genuinely immune,
how many just with a v good immune system that fought off a low viral dose,
how long any immunity lasts, if at all - I've read estimates from doctors / epidemiologists of 2 years+ - WAGs ?

I'd like to know how many of the 3,000 Diamond Princess passengers who did not get COVID - when 700 others did - have since caught it
it would be sensible for their various govts to monitor them - so I assume this has mostly not been done !

Question I was responding to your assumption here I would suspect that al the people in care homes that could catch it will have done so by the end of the lockdown.

Our schools are already open. My understanding is that in Spain (and I think France?) schools were totally shut. Ours are not. The much touted Lancet report recently which caused such a stir was actually a recommendation to do what we are already doing ie have schools open to the vulnerable and key workers' children.

Not sure about German schools bcf.

Can we really protect ourselves from malaria?
3 our 5 f the strains of malaria are resistant to treatment. that's not what I call 'having a treatment'

It's more than we have for COVID, and until we know the at risk groups sending people back to work with nothing but fingers crossed doesn't seem a very sensible way forward at all.

piggy Schools in Germany were closed on 16 March, earlier in the German states that were hit first
Lockdown here ends Sunday if not extended by the govt

Merkel has a Cabinet meeting on Wednesday which will discuss this

The Leopoldina (the German National Academy of Sciences) recommended opening primary & middle schools asap,
also pools, gyms, cinemas, restaurants, pubs, most businesses

But keeping the ban on mass public gatherings except in schools or on public transport

This restart is because the economy has been hammered, but the death rate is comparativel low
In fact total deaths may be lower than the equivalent period in 2019, due to drop in deaths from RTAs, work, alcohol, flu etc

The difference being we know what can protect against malaria hmm and if big pharma would allow it, could simply vaccinate all kids on the planet where it is endemic. We have a control for that, see?

^Can we really protect ourselves from malaria?
3 our 5 f the strains of malaria are resistant to treatment. that's not what I call 'having a treatment'^

Malaria isn't a virus and is spread by mosquitoes. Not by person to person contact.

Once a person has it, they have it for life. It can lie dormant and flare up at random intervals. You can only treat symptoms - there is no cure.

There is also no vaccine - prevention hinges on eliminating the stagnant water that harbours the parasite that mosquitoes live in (as Mussolini did in Northern Italy ...) or using quinine variants prophylactically to avoid infection.

Genetically, having dodgy blood is also a way of preventing malaria, if you are a fan of anaemia. Which is why sickle-cell and other genetically carried forms of anaemia are much more prevalent the further East and South you go from Europe. Something that popped up in my own medical history, as it's been noted more than once that taken with my 2 DBs, we have "weird" blood. All lovely O -ve for a start ...

Poulet There will be a risk analysis of total deaths now,
vs deaths over the next 5 years from increased poverty etc

The current lockdown has been v costly, but was essential to provide time to build up the NHS and also public health services
The next steps are not clear - or rather the timing isn't

It may be country-dependent initially, but if a few countries return and just accept the losses,
it will be very difficult for other govts to keep people locked up and the economy bleeding out.
At some stage, too many people will break the rules for lockdown to be sustainable or meaningful

Another factor may be how Sweden does - their deaths without lockdown are higher than their neighbours,
but still at a level that their public currently prefers to lockdown.
Will that situation change; at what level will deaths level out - or will Sweden choose lockdown first ?