Westministenders: Lockdown continues

[BigChocFrenzy]

The UK has been on lockdown since 23 March,
with no end in sight.

The deaths peak is predicted to be around 17 April,
with the controversial IHME prediction that the UK will have considerably more total deaths - 66,000 - by summer than other European countries.

Supermarkets are struggling to satisfy demand for online slots for the vulnerable
and to keep shelves supplied for other customers

Like all countries, the UK economy is being hammered and heading for a deep recession.
Estimates are for UK GDP to fall 15% this year.

A million people have applied for Universal Credit
The self-employed and small - and some large - businesses are struggling to stay solvent.

They don't know how long to plan for.

The PM is in ICU and Raab has taken over as stand-in, but needs Cabinet approval for decisions.
Probably BJ will be unfit to resume his duties as PM for several weeks, if ever.

WIll he stand down soon and let the Cabinet choose a new PM,
or will the UK continue for weeks with a stand-in leader during the worst crisis since WW2

What's the plan, anybody?

Thanks OhLookHeKickedTheBall, just seen tweet from Keir Starmer, pleased to see he and others are onto it. Hopefully a journalist at today's briefing will bring up the disgraceful blaming of NHS workers for lack of PPE.

yeah I'm sorry.
I'm just a bit tired and emotional.
I'll go make a cup of tea.
Sorry.
Thank you
We're doing ok at work btw I don't think our hospital has been hit as badly as some others. ITU is full but elective surgery has stopped so we can still expand quite a bit.

squid no need to apologise. Your anger is understandable. We're on your side.

A lot of hatred for teachers as well judging by a long running thread asking why teachers aren’t teaching via Zoom but are sitting at home twiddling their thumbs on full pay.
Anyone know what twiddling their thumbs actually means (cba to Google). I think DD does it, she links her hands and rotates her thumbs around one another, it’s very irritating.

This is all part of the "Nudge" policy from the Government: getting the subliminal message out there that it's the public's fault that we're having to stay in lockdown

They had excellent results with the 'scroungers' and 'strivers' nudge narrative, the UK populace as a whole has got more gullible in my opinion

The teacher bashing has ramped up but used to it on MN. It's the usual suspects anyway just finding another way of criticising us. What is frightening is how they view teachers as collateral damage.

Hello, I've lurked on here but not posted on these threads much before. I have a quick question that I could google but I'm guessing someone here knows off the top of their head.

I've also not trawled the thread to see if it's discussed elsewhere so sorry if it's been covered

I'm a remainer (for what that's worth now) but I was wondering whether being out of the EU will make it easier to give long term state support or public ownership to companies hit by the recession?

I seem to remember EU rules against nationalising industries or government support that makes it unfair competition. Obviously we got round it with RBS and I'm pretty sure Air France has only survived with state help before.

Will the nominal brexit we did allow us during transition to have more flexibility in our bail outs than otherwise?

Much though I hate to be wrong it would be something of a surprise if brexit turned out to be good in some way.

I remember arguing for us to join the single currency in the late '90's and then being very glad we hadn't 10 years later so wondering if this is similar.

Hancock was on the R4 Today programme this morning trying to downplay the 'wasting' of PPE line. Mishal Hussein pushed him on it.

I think the govt will quickly realise that line makes them look bad. It's a non-starter.

Squid

Charlie Stayt (I think; I had half an eye on it) was really going for him, too. Hancock looked quite thrown.

I wish they could do the press conference!

squid it must be difficult seeing NHS bashing when you’re all going through hell, but I’m convinced that nobody with half a brain believes that crap and the general public is firmly behind you. There are new reports every day of doctors, nurses and social care workers dying that can’t be ignored, particularly that poor guy who flagged the lack of PPE ages ago.

I sincerely hope that the British public gives its collective head a wobble once this is over and holds these bastards to account.

In the meantime, you’re doing amazingly, please try to take care of yourself

This is from the BBC story on PPE shortages:

On Friday, Matt Hancock said there was enough kit for everyone and unveiled a plan for addressing shortages.

I’m sorry, but WTAF? They’re addressing shortages that don’t exist now?

On Friday, Matt Hancock said there was enough kit for everyone today and unveiled a plan for addressing shortages expected tomorrow or the next day.

My DSiS works in the police in Philadelphia and has full PPE including a visor. I can't help but notice the police (who are also being bashed form many quarters) in the UK have no more than their usual kit. there was report in The Times today tucked away that a police officer had been badly bitten by a man she was talking to.

Regardless of whether some are being over enthusiastic in their application of perceived rules (much like teachers I doubt they are getting much clear support from HMGov) surely the police should have some level of PPE here?

No, I don't see any advantage in Brexit,Thinkaboutittomorrow
In fact if transition is not extended for a long period,
Brexit could be the final blow that kills off some already damaged British exporters

What we've seen in the shops gives us some idea of what a No Deal brexit would have done,
with the UK importing most of its fresh produce from the EU and the supermarkets JIT system.

The UK desperately needs to avoid an additional, self-created crisis in January,
while the COVID crisis will be continuing

EU rules always allow exceptions to tackle emergencies,
e.g. closing borders
and are not preventing any country taking the measures it wants

The Tories are not actually "nationalising" industries anyway, just temporarily taking over facilities
which is what EU countries have been doing too

The UK govt is not doing anything "exceptional", but appears to be trying to copy some of what EU countries like Germany did several weeks - and for some things 10 years - earlier

THinkAboutIt
The State rules holding back government stuff was Corbyn's Lexiter ideology.
THe EU has strict rules for state support of private and foreign owned firms
which is why other EU countries have not been dumb enough to privatise key infrastructure
in fact their state owned providers bought up UK companies

Governments are shit at picking winners
But what they are good at is supporting infrastructure and creating a level playing field
all perfectly permissible inside the EU

support for Main street rather than Wall Street was never part of the right wing Brexit plan.

Brexit will leave the UK isolated at a time when cooperation is most needed.
The EU will adjust its rules to meet the new normal they are the best at fudging issues anywhere

But at least the skies are clear

cross posted - same sentiments differently expressed :-)

Most leaders around the world have had a large boost in popularity, especially the ones who have had a "good" crisis

Those few who have been wilfully incompetent like the Brazilian leader - e.g. wiping his nose on his hand and then shaking a woman's hand ! - are already suffering loss of support

Trump's incoherence and flagrant narcissism looks to be losing support from some Democrats who initially rallied around the flag and the POTUS

Europe Elects@EuropeElects

Domestic Approval Rating
+/- vs. Feb/Mar

< Germany > Merkel: 79% (+11)

< Denmark > Frederiksen: 79% (+40)

< Austria> Kurz: 77% (+33)

< NL > Rutte: 75% (+7)

< Hungary > Orbán Govt: 74% (?)

< Italy > Conte Govt: 71% (+27)

< UK > Johnson: 61% (?)

< Turkey > Erdoğan: 56% (+15)

< Sweden > Löfven: 47% (+21)

< France > Macron: 40% (+7)

< USA > Trump: 43% (-5)

@ThinkAboutItTomorrow, no I don’t think it will because the EU will have no issue supporting said companies. It has already planned some support, which the U.K. won’t be benefitting.
The issue they have is who is going to benefit the most. Not if they will.

The other issue I foresee is food. The U.K. isn’t the only country to struggle with harvest. All countries have said there will be less food produced because it can’t be picked.
The consequence is Roumania stopping any exports of grains. I can see more countries doing that. I can see the EU stopping exports of some foods, like they have with ventilators etc... and to keep food for the EU market.
We are not part of the EU. I’m not expecting to see the UK to be welcomed with open arms if it asks for exports to be allowed for them.. And why should they? We’ve been treating the EU like shit for years now.

Good blog post from Joanne Harris.

The essence of it is that all this talk about "fighting" is unhelpful.

Thanks, for all the replies, I appreciate there are many things that are bad about Brexit and particularly risky at the moment I was just wondering about some potential upside.
I wasn't meaning the takeover of business premises but the other day Sunak was on PM Talking about the state taking significant long-term stakes in businesses that otherwise would go under. that was more the scenario that I was imagining might be more if possible in the brexit situation.

But if the EU relax rules I suppose it's a new era.

There was a spot on the German news a few days ago, welcoming plane loads of Rumanian workers coming to help with the harvest

EE agricultural workers are in greater demand than ever across Europe,
but as EU membership has made their own countries wealthier, they command higher wages and often tax perks now

It is not just a matter of being young, fit and without family commitments:
it also requires some experience of crops to pick correctly and efficiently

• which has been one of the problems reported before when the occasional Brit without experience who tries, lasts about one day.

The UK urgently needs to pick what fresh produce it produces, because the previous amount of imports may be not available and / or more expensive

I haven't heard whether UK farmers have managed to obtain the 90,000 workers they said they needed, whether domestically or from abroad
The reports of increased hostility to EE workers since Brexit won't have helped

(Contrary to public belief, even before joining the then Common Market in the early 1970s, most pickers in the UK were not Brits but were imported workers, travellers etc)

We have a local jobs site and there seem to be a lot of people asking for work, but not many "liking" the posts about desperate need for pickers...I think that might change next month when people rely on the govt to pay their wage.

Nearly all those claims about the EU stopping state support were from Lexiters and Brexiters wooing them,
either being ignorant or deliberately twisting things to support their agenda

Where there are EU laws, they are often just implementing international / UN / WTO rules,
which forbid nationalisation without fair compensation, or unfair state support

• the WTO has very strict rules about state support and countries are continually bringing cases against each other for that e.g. Airbus and Boeing etc

"if the EU relax rules I suppose it's a new era"

THinkABoutTomorrow It's not even a matter of "relaxing the rules:"
Just understanding what they actually are

It was always a UK Brexiter invention that EU rules would stop even a Labour govt carrying out its policies,
IF they were within WTO rules etc

• falling foul of the WTO would have been much more likely

The relaxation to allow closing borders was always built into the rules for emergencies,
so it's not that everyone had to wait for the EU Commision or Parliament to agree first

There was a spot on the German news a few days ago, welcoming plane loads of Rumanian workers coming to help with the harvest

Saw Henning Wehn a few years ago, in December at Birmingham Town Hall. His first gag was to say how much he had enjoyed going around the German market (a once annual fixture in Brum, but who knows ?) although he had never realised just how many Germans were Romanian ...