Westministenders: The Virus

[RedToothBrush]

Its like living in a Bad Disaster B Movie.

If you thought Brexit on your TV every day was Bad, The Virus is a whole new level.

The 5pm broadcast with Johnson and friends, and the public infomation video with the unblicking Chris Witty (who has such unfortunate mannerism he makes me think he's me a Dr Who alien akin to the Slitheen).

Who knows what will happen. Just that everything has changed and our entire economy is now on life support whilst we figure out how to deal with the crisis and what on earth our exit strategy is.

Johnson has however refused to join a joint EU purchase scheme designed to assist countries through the crisis.

Meanwhile the US is about to go nuts... so what does that do to a trade deal?

More money for the NHS? More hospitals?

Well its possible that might just happen...

@mrslaughan

Which is why I pointed out Iceland’s testing, which is not crap and any Icelander can request a test. To date the testing points to a very large proportion of positive cases being asymptomatic or mild.

And that doesn’t mean that quarantining and social distancing shouldn’t be used - they should as they prove effective to prevent community transmission.

But it’s still coming back to test, test, test.

I just watched the news with DH, who knows a fair bit about Covid-19 testing. He says that everything they said on the BBC about testing was correct to his knowledge, including the shortage of materials/difficulties in making enough tests to meet what is a GLOBAL demand. It is just taking time to get everything set up in the UK, but they are working on it, they haven’t done another u-turn.

Most definitely test, test, test - and trace contacts
Unfortunately the UK does not seem to have the capacity for either

Also daily monitoring of confirmed cases to promptly treat any deterioration - I'm sure that has helped Germany keep the death rate low

But all that is manpower and cost-intensive
I can see where some of my hefty taxes went in Germany - I've never resented it

I wonder what differences the final totals will show between well-funded and organised systems
vs those countries that prioritised tax cuts

I would be underwhelmed by this food parcel - how long is it supposed to last ?

And the first 4,000 have received theirs, 46,000 people to go - I hope they aren't hungry

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51737030

A total of one-and-a-half million people in England have been identified as being extremely medically vulnerable.

The government has contacted 900,000 of these and
plans to distribute free food parcels every week to more than 50,000 who have no family or friends to help them.

The first 4,000 were delivered at the weekend.

The identical parcels contain essential supplies such as pasta, cereal, fruit, tea bags, potatoes and tinned goods, as well as toilet paper.

DH has admitted tonight he is terrified. This isn't like DH. What sent him over the edge was seeing the infection numbers from two weeks ago matching the deaths this week. I had to calmly explain to him timescales and testing only being done in hospitals. Its completely freaked him out. He's naturally very logical and data driven rather that getting worked up about news headlines.

If he's doing this, then anyone can.

He says that everything they said on the BBC about testing was correct to his knowledge, including the shortage of materials/difficulties in making enough tests to meet what is a GLOBAL demand.

But when Johnson, who is a known liar, says something, and Manufacturers say the opposite, who are we supposed to believe?

Hasn't Gove blamed the chemicals running out? Yet the chemical suppliers knew nothing of this? Lack of coordination on every level in this country.

I always love ONS
(NOOOO, the other abbreviation !)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/england-and-wales-coronavirus-death-toll-40-higher-than-previously-stated

It suggests that almost 24% of coronavirus deaths have been going unreported in government figures.
.....
“What ONS has done is important as it starts to provide a more complete picture of the impact of Covid-19 on mortality.
The value of these data will increase with time.”
< yep >
....
The ONS also found that Covid-19 deaths accounted for 1% of the UK’s total deaths in the week ending 20 March
< at last a reliable number ! >

"Hasn't Gove blamed the chemicals running out? "

If German pharmaceutical firms can manufacture them, of course UK firms can
UNLESS....
are the UK using a different, very special British test that requires raw materials from China or wherever

A requirement for the German test developed early on for CV was that it only used stuff we can make

red ONS action should mean more reliable and comprehensive data

That is one of the prerequisites for deciding how big a problem we are facing
and what to do about it

And we only have this today < exits, grumbling >

Coronavirus: US Navy captain pleads for help over outbreak

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52110298

The captain of a US aircraft carrier carrying more than 4,000 crew has called for urgent help to halt a coronavirus outbreak on his ship.

Scores of people on board the Theodore Roosevelt have tested positive for the infection.
The carrier is currently docked in Guam.

"We are not at war. Sailors do not need to die,"

Captain Brett Crozier wrote in a letter to the Pentagon.
Captain Crozier recommended quarantining almost the entire crew.

I cannot believe the US has allowed that to the press! If they have minimal sailors manning the NUCLEAR ship in Guam, do they not see this is a rather large terrorist carrot? Or am I off on a tangent? Seems irresponsible to me.

And we only have this today < exits, grumbling >

Tbf statistically it couldn't have been earlier due to how small numbers were. So we should be grateful it's 'only' today.

Think the Tories have realised the public have twigged about the lack of PPE still going on, months in (funny how their promises never come true!) www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/31/nhs-staff-gagged-over-coronavirus-protective-equipment-shortages

do they not see this is a rather large terrorist carrot

Isis put a travel advisory out the other day

(yes really)

An old school friend is moving in US (LA). She seems to think it is essential. Lots of "Oh it'll be fine, the removal guys have gas masks and gloves". I didn't dare ask if she has had the house deep cleaned before they get the keys . Feels like watching us a few weeks back. I can completely see what Italy meant with all of the FB posts about staying home last week.

great picture of "the terrorists" too.

Is Guam on their list of must see destinations though? If not, it might be now!

No wonder so much of the govt caught CV - they don't even follow WHO advice themselves:

www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/mar/31/uk-coronavirus-live-ons-death-toll-covid-19-latest?page=with:block-5e8340d38f0866297e9f43d2

Boris Johnson intends to leave coronavirus self-isolation on Friday despite pleas from the Labour MP Dr Rosena Allin Khan to stay away from people for a further seven days.

The prime minister has been self-isolating in No 11 Downing Street since he tested positive for Covid-19 last Thursday night.

A spokesman said Johnson’s symptoms remained mild and he was following the UK guidelines by self-isolating for seven days.

Allin-Khan, however, has said that the PM should double his isolation to 14 days in line with World Health Organization guidance and that the UK should change its advice accordingly.

The current UK guidelines are that individuals should self-isolate for seven days, and entire households should do so for 14.

She told Sky News:

I would like the prime minister to self-isolate for 14 days.
I’m deeply concerned the advice we’re giving is not in keeping with what the WHO are saying

• they’re saying you can continue to spread the virus long after the symptoms are gone.

Speaking on RTÉ's Today with Sean O'Rourke, [Scally] said it is regrettable that Northern Ireland is continuing to follow the advice from Whitehall.

He said he believes that the advice from London is "seriously flawed" but added that health in Northern Ireland is a devolved power and they could choose to follow their own path.

He said that there is a hope and a chance that we can stop the virus properly but it has to be on the basis of stopping the importation of new cases.

He called for a harmonisation of measures on the island of Ireland and cited the example of self-isolation, which in Northern Ireland is seven days but in the Republic it is for 14 days.

While community testing of defined potential cases continues in the Republic, community testing was halted in Northern Ireland in mid-March.

Making a political point at such great cost is nothing short of criminal conduct by anyone refusing to take adequate and co-ordinated measures.

are the UK using a different, very special British test that requires raw materials from China or wherever

Nope.

We don’t know how Germany has been able to ramp up testing so quickly, maybe they already had the lab facilities set up. But I reiterate that a huge operation is ongoing in the UK, with central testing labs being established in various parts of the country. It’s a far more complex process than those ‘pregnancy test’ style tests that will be used for antibody testing, requiring a variety of different reagents and components.

The main obvious difference between the German approach and the UK is that Germany has a competent government with local well resourced regions. We have a shower of shit, hell bent on a low tax regime to the detriment of the population as a whole.

ListeningQuietly
Are you talking about the WW2 that involved the mass evacuation of children from large cities into the countryside, away from their parents for years, some of whom never saw their parents again?

The WW2 that saw people confined to their homes behind blackout curtains for years, except for the times when they cowered in the Tube in their night attire, wondering what grim sights would greet them when they emerged?

The WW2 when V-2 rockets rained down on civilians in British cities?

The WW2 that saw the development of criminal gangs of black marketeers and spivs, and ghouls who picked through destroyed homes and businesses looking for loot, that grew into a flourishing underworld in the aftermath?

There are medics on MN threads who are likely to catch a virus for which there is no known cure purely because they must work treating patients who have this virus and are highly contagious. No other causes of the normal 10,000 deaths in Britain are comparable in terms of risk to medical personnel. No normal 21st century health issues are comparable in terms of pressure on hospital resources.
Oncologists don't catch cancer from their patients and die within a fortnight.
Cardiologists don't catch heart disease from their patients.
Cancer cases don't arrive in lorryloads needing urgent operations and radiation and chemotherapy.
Hundreds of people don't flood emergency rooms needing quadruple bypasses all in the same week.

...............
Hitler once defeated, stayed defeated.
Oh did he now?

Oncologists don't catch cancer from their patients and die within a fortnight.
Cardiologists don't catch heart disease from their patients.

There’s a thread on the medical reddit that was posted last night about a paediatric neurosurgeon who has died of COVID19. Several replies underneath from colleagues and peers commenting on how difficult and small the field/specialism is and how this is a significant loss. www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/fs04fo/famed_pediatric_neurosurgeon_jim_goodrich_dead_of/

I make three main arguments.
First, that the cost of the economic bailout Rishi Sunack has proposed is too high. Spending that kind of money to extend the lives of a few hundred thousand mostly elderly people with underlying health problems by one or two years is a mistake.
Toby Young

The smug fallacy that only the old will catch this and die from it.

Seeing talk of how AirBnB is going to crash the US housing market. Thousands of properties were bought by a mortgage but properties are empty as travel is non existant. So there are likely to be mass defaults in a couple of months.

This is not good.