Westministenders: The Virus

[RedToothBrush]

Its like living in a Bad Disaster B Movie.

If you thought Brexit on your TV every day was Bad, The Virus is a whole new level.

The 5pm broadcast with Johnson and friends, and the public infomation video with the unblicking Chris Witty (who has such unfortunate mannerism he makes me think he's me a Dr Who alien akin to the Slitheen).

Who knows what will happen. Just that everything has changed and our entire economy is now on life support whilst we figure out how to deal with the crisis and what on earth our exit strategy is.

Johnson has however refused to join a joint EU purchase scheme designed to assist countries through the crisis.

Meanwhile the US is about to go nuts... so what does that do to a trade deal?

More money for the NHS? More hospitals?

Well its possible that might just happen...

Those who want to end the lockdown need to come up with proper numbers for costs, so we can examine costs per life saved in various scenarios
Why?
The cost OF lockdown has not been quantified.
The cost of QE was not quantified.
THe full cost of the banking bail out was not quantified.
Ain't my job to quantify an alternative to a bad path.

when weighed against the combined opinions of nearly every epidemiologist and virologist of note in the world

There are at least some saying that the current data is so incomplete that they can’t draw any conclusions.

I’m guessing you don’t get to be a Professor of epidemiology at Stanford for nothing.

Reading Listening Quietly, I'm starting to understand where anti-vaxxers come from. I mean, everyone dies, so why not do it early?

Oh no, a 13 yo dead now which could be an outlier...but...the 19yo the other day too? [[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/boy-13-die-london-after-testing-positive-for-coronavirus]]

RTB I hate the idea of that phone virus alert - they got that from the BBC show Contagion no doubt. Trouble is, the lock down message didn't get to me until 8pm the following night...likewise anyone else local on O2. Suppose you have your phone on silent?

That will teach me to refresh before posting !

The epidemiologists and public health experts have produced their figures:

500,000 if we do nothing
250,000 for light / moderate measures
under 30k for lockdown

I don't rate pp with no qualifications who just give their "no worse than flu" opinion

What could get me on board is a cost per saved life analysis of the scenarios
but this requires reliable references of estimated costs

• not denying the seriousness of the virus

Just pp saying "we're ruined" is no more informative than others saying "we're doomed"
Both are arm-waving.

"Professor of epidemiology at Stanford"

Let's have a reference to what he / she says and who they are
and why they differ from the WHO in how to handle this

I put "nearly every epidemiologist and virologist of note "

because e.g. there are about 98% of scientists in the field who agree on man-made climate change
and 2% deniers

BGF my mistake, Ioannidis is Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science at Stanford and was chairman at the Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine.

Go look him up for yourself.

once the data comes in I suspect it will look more and more like flu

Suspect based on what?

The most complete data set we gave is the Korean one. Widespread testing including of asymptomatic people.

Their death rate - in a population that is significantly younger than most European populations - is edging up and IIRC is now over 1%.

That's without an overloaded health system and with a cohort of infected people who skew young.

Models are all well and good (I develop models for a living, though not epidemiological ones) but there comes a point at which you have to step away from the screen and check whether your projections are consistent with the real world evidence.

And he’s not differing from WHO guidance, he’s saying that the information currently available is not fit for purpose in determining mortality rates.

It’s really not difficult to understand, if you’re only testing people presenting at hospital with severe CV-19 symptoms then your data is skewed. You have no idea how many people are in the general population that have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic because they are not being tested.

Ah yes, I have heard of him - the contrarian:

"Why most published research is false" etc

... but his is supposed to be correct

No, I don't rate him above the WHO experts in the field

I've read that argument often, including from him

But for flu as well, the mortality rate is only calculated from known cases, which are normally only those severe enough to see a doctor

So comparing like with like, we can judge how lethal COVID is

The studies show its R0, so we know that too

The spread and fatalities are based on the experience of epidemiologists who have worked on other epidemics

We can't just ignore the WHO and nearly all leading scientists in the filed, just because 1 contrarian says most published research is rubbish

Nearly all governments obviously went with the WHO, conventional science and what their own public health experts advised them

Bringing back a slightly Brexity slant. Or at least bringing back in some of the old faithful characters from Brexit. Our doctors of spin... Levido and Guerin.

A raft of former advisers have been brought back to Whitehall to track public opinion and gauge whether the government’s key messages on handwashing and self-isolation are getting through, including Gabriel Milland, a former head of news at the Department for Education under Michael Gove who is known for his experience running focus groups to refine messaging.

Because this is what we want the government to focus on, right? Not placing and sorting orders for PPE or ventilators or testing... Just get the message right. It worked wonders for the referendum and won Johnson the election. So why not return to this brilliant strategy? Does Cummings and Johnson not think perhaps handwashing messages are just a teensy bit late?

No wonder the poor GP's and nurses are getting threatened and gagged for speaking out. Doesn't that smack of Cummings and Levido's election strategy? Too 'off message' there...

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/johnson-rehires-election-chief-to-sharpen-coronavirus-messaging

I have also spent nearly 40 years working on highly complex maths / physics models
and in my field we always did prototype tests to validate the model

because reality bats last

But he’s not wrong when it comes to the WHO’s mantra of “test, test, test”. If you don’t test you have no idea what % of the population has been infected.

Iceland has found that up to 50% of case are asymptomatic.

Interesting, DrBlackbird The govt are reverting to spin over substance

It worked for the Brexit referendum

Unfortunately spin won't combat a virus

if you’re only testing people presenting at hospital with severe CV-19 symptoms then your data is skewed. You have no idea how many people are in the general population that have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic because they are not being tested.

Equally, if you're not testing other people, how many are dying outside hospitals and excluded from the (skewed) data?

I'm not a stats person at all, but one thing that I find really striking in all of this is how desperately we are trying to make sense of figures that vary hugely from country to country, for a whole range of reasons.

Here is a relaxed cat, for squid. My tiny garden is rocking a jungle vibe, but I'll try and post you some carefully cropped and edited flowers.

Any of you heard any more about that blood type theory?

I thought it was intetesting and wondered if there had been any more research/data collected?

@Barrique - just because the UK and USA have crap testing doesn't mean the rest of world has..... as Misti has pointed out some countries do it well...... we also can't trust China's data....

What we do know is in countries with better medical provision than here - their hospitals were quickly overwhelmed, which meant people who required medical attention didn't get it.

I think it is going to be messy in the states, with its fractured medical system - we're hearing a lot about NYC , but in the southern states I think it will be worse.

Only time can tell.

The provisions the UK gov have put in - is not about stopping everyone dying, but being able to provide medical care to those that have a chance of survival.

The WHO have said that 80% of cases are mild / moderate

where mild ranged from no symptoms up to about flu
and moderate is anything up to pneumonia that could still be managed at home

The problem is the 20% or so who need be hospitalised and the 6-7% needing critical care or they will die

Ben Guerin quoted as saying: “We find people who are on the fence and make their minds up for them.” Using memes and online publicity stunts... “You can have a quote from an economist. Or you can have a picture of a dog next to it saying ‘tax is bad’. Guess which one had more engagement.”

He, with his business partner, were tasked with running the Tories online election social media campaign. This is what he rightly thinks of the public.

I have a strong suspicion that this state of semi lockdown will last until enough people are sick of it to damage Mr Johnson's approval rating, rather than the actual science... Particularly if and when other European countries begin lifting restrictions.

He agrees with a lot of what the WHO says,
but then basically is saying he doesn't know what to recommend because he doesn't know what will happen

That's fine in an academic paper or lecture

However, governments want advice because they have to take action
and when one bloke says he doesn't know and a lot of experts - including those working for the govt - present a range of scenarios and options

then it's obvious who is listened to

Clash That is also my suspicion !
that it will be the polls, not the science, determining UK policy

All those who know BJ say he desperately wants to be popular and liked by voters
That's why he couldn't bear the scenarios of mass deaths
but also why he would hate to go against a public demanding an end to lockdown

The German lockdown will be at least until 19 April - so he could follow that, if you think he wants to copy someone ?

Merkel's target was published
and it is what the experts told her is both sufficient to keep the curve flattened and at a level that the health service can handle

It would be difficult for her to change this
So far the public are very supportive, probably because the strategy is consistent and science-based

I would like to see the target published that the CMO and science advisor have agreed with BJ
< holds breath and waits >

Listening you do also understand the fact that while the NHS is completely overwhelmed with all of this death, they aren't on hand to sort out people bimbling about on roads who might crash, or the kid with appendicitis if lockdown stopped? This isn't just about the people getting sick at all. There are finite resources which put us all in danger.

Agree with BCF on all of this, testing has been too slow as I said upthread. Am interested that they are again going back to behavioural science on public opinion - not like the country need experts in a crisis, obviously! Madness! It's the same with Bozo's communication - it's shit. Puts the ethical dilemma onto the public and the NHS workers. Oh, we "ask" you not to do XYZ so it's on you if you choose to work and infect others because you don't get a test to show you shouldn't be. That is not public health.