This is an interesting thread and I wonder if the reason other countries haven't had such problems could be because their supermarkets are so heavily invested and dependent on just in time and people don't eat out as much. The combination of the two in the UK is enough to make the difference? This is certainly thought provoking
Greg Callus @greg_callus
I strongly suspect there isn't actually much panic buying or hoarding in the way we imagine. Supermarkets in the UK took £193.4bn in revenue in 2019, which is £3.7bn/week. £1bn extra has been added over 3 weeks: approx 10% rise per week for 3 weeks. That's small, give that...
Huge swathes of the population who were eating 1 (or even 2 or 3) meals out (cafe breakfast, Pret lunch, work dinner) are now home-working so eating at home & many kids aren't getting school meals. Inexperienced cooks, new to it, invariably buy too much (quantity & variety).
Then remember people are being encouraged to social distance, so they want to minimise shopping trips, so will get durables just in case (batteries, candles and - yes - toilet rolls). So the increase in purchasing is very modest, explicable, even justified. So why empty shelves?
UK Supermarkets are masterful: cheap goods at low margin in huge bulk, with highly sophisticated FMCG just-in-time supply chains. If you operate a Tesco Metro in Central London, you don't (a) carry excess stock (just exactly right amount based on models): wasted working capital
(b) rent very expensive premises with larger stock rooms than you need when stock-minimisation & just-in-time replenishment is part of the financial model that makes it profitable at all. That entire model for all supermarkets is based on predicable and modelled seasonal demand.
Remember all the Brexit/No Deal/Just-in-Time supply chain we talked about? How even slight shifts in the chain could cause massive chaos & shortages? This is it. A modest 10% uplift in demand makes it seem like locusts have hit all supermarkets (even though there's no shortage).
So this isn't anti-social idiots stockpiling canned goods: it's every household adding £5 or £6 to its weekly shop. It's happening to a highly-calibrated supply chain that can replenish daily – because there is no shortage – but just can't keep the shelves full during the day.
I'm sure there are some people genuinely hoarding/stockpiling, even hoping to sell-on some goods at a profit, but they aren't the major factor. Don't think most of your fellow citizens are monsters. This is happening in the UK, but not abroad, b/c of supply chain "efficiency".
That won't change, at least not quickly. Supermarket-imposed rationing sensible, but won't actually change much. Need to have (1) priority hours (first thing) for NHS staff (2) reserved stock for elderly; (3) get trucks & migrate people to online shopping (direct from warehouse)
Also important to remember symbiotic relationship with eat-out cafes. Pret a Manger has said it is closing its 400 cafes from this evening. Where are those located? In the city centres where supermarket's food storage capacity (inc refridgerated/frozen storage) is most-limited.
Supermarkets are facing opportunity loss where no stock to sell: if (for example) they were to rent empty Pret storage for middle-of-the-day refreshers of stock in city centre supermarkets & increase small van capacity, they could sell what they already hold in out of town DCs.