Westminstenders: All bets are off

[RedToothBrush]

We are seeking an extension. Apparently. No prizes for guessing why.

There is no news but COVID news. And that's all there will be for a long time.

Enjoy your stockpile and your sunny uplands it brought.

Keep safe.

We’re having to change the way we deliver skills and I hope the changes will have a positive impact in the future. I’ve been trying to drive the change for some years now, but have met with considerable resistance - this might help effect it.

they cannot WAIT to get back to partying

And DS couldn't wait to fly on Concorde when he grew up.

I really hope people change their travel habits after this.

I only recently realised that a considerable proportion of our incoming exchange students fly home from SE France to the UK/Ireland 2-3 times a semester. That's how cheap it is.

In my day (gimmer alert), on my year in France as an undergraduate, I took the train to Paris (5-6hrs), a coach-ferry-coach combo to London and then a train to Scotland. It took 2 days to get home. If a flight had cost £20 rather than £250 (with my ISIC card), I'd have done things differently too. But I couldn't afford to fly, so didn't.

I can't see how the airlines that survive this will be able to bounce back and carry on offering ticket prices that are totally disconnected from actual costs (economic, environmental, etc.)

yoikes

Probably take a couple of years to get the vaccine, roll it out and check there are few cases left
before anyone sensible wants tourists

Then see how many can afford flights if there is still a global recession / depression

Banks may shut off credit for frivolities - under pressure from govts - so they can loan more to businesses

It's not just flights though

If people have less money or if their jobs are less secure, they'll tend to cut down on all entertainment and discretionary spending

No, it's not just flights.
It's meals out, regular haircuts, manicures, weekends away, leisure activities for the whole family...things that were once luxuries and have become the norm.

Funny you should mention hair cuts...

I bought some hair clippers from amazon (£12)

So as we are socially distancing and stopping all but necessary outings I cut dh, ds1 and ds2 hair today....they don't look too bad!

BigChoc / Auld
Like the wazzock from Next saying that nobody buys new clothes to stay in ....
FFS you should buy more clothes when your old ones are worn out
NOT just for a single day
))))))))) Fast fashion ((((((((

I've been idly thinking about this.

DS2 still has relatively smooth, straight hair and I could do a bad bowl cut. DS1's hair is thick and bushy, though. And it grows really fast Either he lets it grow out as a badge of lockdown honour, in which case he'll look like a demented Highland Cattle gone astray in Provence, or I hack away at it.

Sorry, cross-posted. That was about haircuts, for yoikes...

Listening I do hope this is the death of fast fashion. Neither DDs nor myself have ever been into that - we wear things until they are falling apart because we buy stuff we love, and don't care about being ' on trend'. We donate things to charity shops and buy things from charity shops. My best winter skirt is 20 years old and still going strong - classics endure.

Informative Q&A (in English) with a virologist who's been explaining COVID to Germany over the weeks:

"We Have To Bring Down the Number of Cases Now. Otherwise We Won't Be Able To Handle It"

https://www.zeit.de/amp/wissen/gesundheit/2020-03/christian-drosten-coronavirus-pandemic-germany-virologist-charite?

Drosten: In Italy, tests are apparently primarily performed on people who get admitted to the hospital.
That's because people there know that there aren't enough tests to go around anyway, so they initially stay home, even if they have symptoms.
They only go to the hospital if their condition worsens.
There, they arrive with shortness of breath and are immediately admitted to the intensive care unit, where they are then tested for the first time.

This is why the average age of recorded cases is much higher in Italy than here in Germany.

I assume that many young Italians are or were infected without ever being detected.
This also explains the virus' supposedly higher mortality rate there

ZEIT ONLINE: How much longer will we be able to keep up with testing in Germany?

Drosten: At some point, this won't be possible anymore.
We're simply not able to increase our testing capacity as quickly as the number of cases rises.

Then two things will coincide:
First, some of the people who are now sick with COVID-19 will die.
And second, because we won't be able to test everyone, our statistics will be incomplete.

Our fatality rate will then also rise.
It will appear that the virus has become more dangerous, but this will be a statistical artifact, a distortion.

It will simply reflect what's already starting to happen:
We're missing more and more infections
....
ZEIT ONLINE: By then, millions of people could be infected.
How well are German clinics prepared for that eventuality?

Drosten: No matter how you count or who you speak to:
We have to bring down the number of cases now. Otherwise we won't be able to handle it.

Otherwise we'll have exactly the same problems as Italy within a few weeks.

We do have more beds, and maybe we're a little better trained.
But even though intensive care in Germany is good, there's still not enough of it.

Based on the current figures, we would need – even by conservative estimates – to double our current intensive-care capacity in order to even come close to ventilating everyone who needs it

ZEIT ONLINE: Germany's federal and state governments have now adopted an emergency plan.
Additional capacities for minor cases are to be created
and the number of intensive care beds doubled.

Drosten: That's a good plan.
And in order to do this, we need the time that we hope to buy with the current measures.

Now is the phase in which ventilators are still being ordered and hospital wards cleared.
All this (points to a nearby building) belongs to the hospital.
Normally it's used for offices.
Now it's being cleared out and beds are being set up inside – including ones with ventilators.

Processes like these take a few weeks.
That's what the weeks we're trying to buy ourselves now are for, and not primarily for developing a vaccine.

Merkel weeks ago ordered 10,000 more ventialtors from the biggest German manufacturer, with additional ordered from other specialist suppliers
More staff are being trained, in preparation for their use

However, reports are the only British manufacturer of ventilators still hasn't received an order from the UK govt to produce any extra
Why would the govt be asking car manufacturers with 3D printers instead of a British specialist in ventilators ?

Is Grayling really running this, instead of his intelligence committee job ?

Car manufacturers could produce much simpler kit in bulk e.g. masks;
other firms could produce hand sanitisers in bulk
but leave the complicated, critical kit to the specialists

Just wondered (apart from the current crisis in UK), if many would risk travelling abroad even when (if) this CV issue might resolve itself?

Have to say I would not be first in the Q.

And wonder if flights/ferries would be restricted to major hubs anyway for a long time to come.

Any thoughts?

yoikes
I don't think I can give you words that offer much sympathy at this point.

I wish you the best. X

Tonight I've been looking at the latest FT figures and projections.

I showed them to DH who understand numbers better than anyone I've ever met and probably will ever meet.

For the last week he's been acting like a bit of a dick not taking the social distancing seriously and getting pissed off at me for being over anxious. My anxiety has been dreadful the last few weeks and at one point also ended up hospitalising me. So it's something of a sore point and he has thought I've been somewhat hysterical.

He saw the ft graphs and went white. Said we are not leaving the house again unless we really have to. Not even for walks.

The government last weekend said we were 3 weeks behind Italy. Then they changed their minds and said 2 weeks. The FT figures say 9 days.

The Italian outbreak centres on an area of Lombardy that's not as densely populated as London.

The density of population and the travel routes is probably why our death rate is skyrocketing particularly fast. We should have shut down earlier because of that. We didn't.

And Lombardy have more beds than the UK. I saw tonight that the figures for critical care suggest our deaths are not happening in ICU. People, for whatever reason it is, aren't making it to ICU before they die. Are they dying that fast? Are we failing to diagnose quickly enough? Is it a failure of the 111 system to get the right patients seen at the right time? Are we having a problem with hospital acquired infections? Lots of questions about that little gem.

The shit will start to hit the fan in a big way mid week if that data is anything like right.

We aren't even locked down yet. Italy was by the same point and the schools had been for some days and the red zone in Lombardy had been before that.

It's going to get BAD.

Really bad. DH is now upset and I think quite distressed. I feel guilty and like I've brought him down with my negativity. Except I know I havent at the same time. I just gave him a glimpse of the future and its sobering and frightening.

The WhatsApp groups I'm in are on another planet. I've been close to losing it today with them. It's saccharine vomit inducing fair too cheery nonsense combined with total stupidity and idiocy over what social distancing is and what it's purpose is. They will go into melt down next week when the penny drops. Complete meltdown. They are not psychologically prepared for this at all.

I suspect my anxiety will ironically be the thing that helps me over the next few weeks. For various reasons.

Its leaves a bitter taste to know what's coming is predictable. I just have to hope and yep, pray, that my family are OK.

ZEIT ONLINE: Let's look at the virus itself.
You have been researching coronaviruses for many years.
What has surprised you most about SARS-CoV-2 so far?

Drosten: Clearly the fact that it replicates in the throat.

With the SARS virus, which caused the outbreak in 2002-2003,
we were never able to isolate it in the throat.

SARS patients had far fewer viruses in their bodies and the pathogens were far less infectious.

In addition, the new coronavirus contains an astonishing biological innovation:

a protease cleavage site in the surface protein of the virus.

In the case of bird flu, for example,
whether this site is there or not makes the difference whether the pathogen makes poultry very sick or not.

ZEIT ONLINE: What's so special about this cleavage site?

Drosten: The surface protein must be cut so that the virus can mature and enter the next cell.

And this cleavage site may enable the virus to be cut
even when it's only just been released from the last infected cell.

It's like a sheet of paper that's easier to tear off the notepad because it's perforated.
And SARS-CoV-2 has this perforation.

ZEIT ONLINE: What does this mean for the disease?

Drosten: We don't know for sure yet. It could allow the virus to already be mature when it leaves the cell – ready to enter the next one.

This could also be the reason why SARS-CoV-2 replicates so well in the throat and why it can be transmitted so easily.

We now have to figure all that out.

Some realistic projections there, in fairness.

UK is not immune. Brace, Brace, Brace. Sorry that's my view now.

Just wondered (apart from the current crisis in UK), if many would risk travelling abroad even when (if) this CV issue might resolve itself?

Have to say I would not be first in the Q.

An acquaintance suggested a big party for all the kids who missed their birthdays as soon as lock down was over. I was the miserable parent who pointed out it was a bloody stupid idea for everyone to go nuts and shut 'paarrrtttyyyy' the second restrictions are lifted because you starting a big second wave.

Of course our government with its great understanding of the psychology of the country (as demonstrated by the car crash of communication strategy of the last week) is going to manage that as well as a chocolate tea pot.

No I wouldn't be at the front of the queue either.

Imo at this point this isn't merely negligence either. Someone has been crunching the figures.

Full lockdown tomorrow. Monday at the latest.

(I'd personally have ordered it tonight based on what I've seen from the ft and the behaviour of the public on social media)

red You gave him the facts - which he's now finally accepted from elswhere ! - so no guilt there
Sorry to hear your anxiety has been so bad.

As a maths / STEM bod, the Coronavirus has been scaring me for several weeks,
because of how exponential growth works

Most of Europe is on the same curve, see attached, just at different time points
Different to Asian countries

I don't know if even the German health system, with about 3 x critical care beds per 100,000 pop than the UK, will be swamped
The virologist intreviewed in my link above says Germany must take measures to reduce cases by at least half of what is predicted on the curve

So the UK needs to reduce to 1/6 of its curve ?
(Italy has about twice the beds)

oops, it's German GPs iirc that are 3 x the UK
Looking at critical care beds, they are 4.4 x the UK's

All countries have a surge capacity, so I presume both will be using theirs

RedToothBrush

Can only agree with you. And hope for all our sakes that full lockdown will happen very soon. It has not sunk in yet for many. Look at Italy, god almighty.

We are headed that way I fear. The trends are obvious now.

Too slow a response by Gov. Terrible if we go the same route as Italy. OMG, if only someone could make a fkn decision to lock down now and try to be ahead.

Sad face emoji here.

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
BREAKING: Boris Johnson says the NHS will be "overwhelmed" and Britain will become like Italy unless people immediately follow social distancing orders

His starkest warning to the nation yet about what is coming

PM says people must not visit their mothers on mother's day

Sam @samisam137
This aged well... in like a week

Links to this tweet

Jo Michell @jomichell
Nick Phin, Deputy Director of the National Infection Service, Public Health England, on Newsnight, 13th March: If you have don't have symptoms you are not infectious. Visit your elderly relatives. Go to the pub. Go to weddings. Book your foreign holidays.
video clip

The UK'S 111 system is concerning me - with all the calls, it may not be reacting quickly enough
and then patients not requiring an ambulance seem basically left to treat themselves and not knowing if they have it

I posted earlier how anyone in Germany with symptoms can phone either theri GP or a central number in their state

With 3 x the number of GPs, this actually makes sense as an option, since the GP would know their patient - we have more checkups here

Then they are evaluated and if it is thought likely / possible they have COVID, someone comes round to test them

If found positive, they are monitored at least daily by a phone call,
which also means the patient describes their symptoms and changes each time

This is imo important because deterioration would probably be caught earlier than in the UK

Their contacts are also traced and tested

This contact-tracing has become so manpower-intensive that uni students have benn called in to do it
and even testing itself won't be possible when we get into the millions of cases
but at least in the early to middle stages of a pandemic, this system seems sensible