Westminstenders: All bets are off

[RedToothBrush]

We are seeking an extension. Apparently. No prizes for guessing why.

There is no news but COVID news. And that's all there will be for a long time.

Enjoy your stockpile and your sunny uplands it brought.

Keep safe.

The numbers aren't slowing yet either.

French numbers slowing but that may well be an artefact of inadequate testing. Deaths lower than yesterday too, but they are not including deaths outside hospital, and there have been some that are possibly coronavirus related in care homes.

squid
Part of the problem in the NHS lies solely at the door of the Tory party - the cuts to Local Council adult social care.
No other party / government has decimated the backup to its healthcare in such a blatant political manner.
Its not much help right now
but when the history is written, Hunt, Osborne and Lansley will be viewed as the utter heartless scumbags they are
by a populace paying higher tax rates to pay for Sunak's sanity

I'm not sure whether we can go by the number of cases, which depend on testing, to say whether it is slowing down

Maybe the number of deaths ?
But that can have 2-6 weeks delay from onset

and is anyway sufficiently low in Germany that we may have a day with 2-3 and then a day with several

Probably takes a week to reliably see the trend in cases

New cases in France & Germany

Number of cases
If you do not test you will have no cases
If you record deaths by the underlying disease you will have no cases
hence why Bojo cut testing
and Trump will
and Putin has
and Modi has

Sadly we'll only work out the true numbers in around five years time
by then, Covid the Boomer Buster
I did not make that up, its a common view among generation rent
will have done its worst

The rest of Illinois joins @mathanxiety in a shutdown tomorrow evening. I'm off to read the rules.

Today has a sudden cluster of deaths, so the daily total tomorrow will be grim:
9 people in a home for the elderly in Bayern
Probably more in the next few days, as it goes through the rest

Once it hits care homes, as in the early days in Italy, the casualty rate is dreadful

Almost 20,000 confirmed cases in Germany, with an unknown additional multiple having it too mildly to realise it

This afternoon there was a patrol of gendarmes in my little town, and a municipal police car driving round with a loudhailer telling people to stay at home and reminding them about fines. Plus a recorded phone message from the mairie reiterating that.
Place is eerily quiet apart from the odd siren.
Friday is usually market day, beneath my windows. Today they washed down the paving stones instead.
More people are clapping & cheering at their windows in support of HCP each evening.

(I have nothing intelligent to add to your knowledgeable posts. WFH and dealing with the kids' homework plus extra housekeeping, meals, etc. leaves me braindead of an evening, after 10 very broken nights due to DS1 coughing. Thanks for all your input.)

Boris: "we're not going to shut pubs, restaurants etc"

Also Boris: "we're shutting pubs, restaurants etc"

Our Numbers Don't Match Up With The Expert Predictions (Volume III)

Beth Rigby @bethrigby
We were expecting closure of bars/restaurants/gyms in London, but entire country? A bit of a surprise.

What drove the decision? Understand it was combo of pace of disease, mixed evidence around compliance with massage of cutting social contact and need for clarity. #Covid_19

Peter Birks @peterjbirks
1/2 I think what drove the decision was the (unspoken) awareness of the likely level of infection penetration today. Two weeks ago, infections recorded were 169. Today, 177 people are dead. That doesn't match. So, infection rate much higher two weeks ago than recorded.

2/2 But by how much? Well, if mortality rate is 1%, it likely means a massive level of under-recognition, with some 17,500 infected two weeks ago, and more than 200,000 infected today. That implies 2,000 total deaths within two weeks, and still increasing exponentially every day

Hell mend anyone who believes BJs shit.

Someone I went to school with was buried today. (Non cv related death)

Her own parents couldn't attend their childs burial...only her dh and dc were allowed to be present plus the vicar.

Can you imagine that ??? Not being able to attend your child's funeral???

So I'll save the cheerleading for BJ and Rishi....their govts inaction has doomed many, many families to disaster and heartbreak.

Maybe BJ can tell my weeping mum that her not being able to say her goodbyes to her sister is ok?

His glib comments, pounding of the podium and downright lies make me utterly FURIOUS.

How DARE they stand behind podiums with "SAVE OUR NHS" banner!!??

How???

I hope when the bodies start to pile up ai hope voters remember the lies about PPE, the no testing, the running the nhs into the ground for 10 years.

Fucking bastards

I began my day expecting to lose my best Client - got DS out the door for his last day (this year) at College - mooched down the local shop at 9am hoping to buy a loaf of DS's sliced bread - all gone, same with loo roll.

I had a confo with the Client and seeems they roll with the punches - so I've still got work to do.

I think the UK Govt (including opposition, Lords, Officers, etc) are reacting and acting well - as well as any could right now. It doesn't look or feel like a Tory Govt but A Government which is what is needed right now.

I wonder if you'll still feel that way in 2 weeks?..

yoikes I am so sorry, that is terrible.

squid and all your colleagues: thank you for everything you do, in the face of useless support from the govt and enormously high expectations. May you all come through it safe and well, and as unscathed as possible.

yoikes that is incredibly sad and I give you my condolence and reserve any further comments for another day.

As far as Govt response to the current situation I'm happy with it so far - I think the vast majority of the population are getting prepared and so are the essential services.

Not everything is up to the Govt and it is how we as as Communities, big and small, pull together (whilst remaining physically separate) to make it through the next few weeks with as many of us as possible at the other end.

Mooching anywhere is a sign that you've not been paying attention.

A Government.
The indefinite article sets a low bar.
Add your own adjective, maybe?

Trump is A President.
Kim Jong Un is A Leader.

It's not the capital letters that count, it's the competence and sense of responsibility.

Delurking to say that if the government had done their fucking job from the start, there would be little to "pull together" over @HateIsNotGood.

Also, whilst I am happy that your work is fine, crowing about that on here, when people are very much being adversely affected by the reality of Covid, is both tone deaf and insensitive.

"Boris: "we're not going to shut pubs, restaurants etc"

Also Boris: "we're shutting pubs, restaurants etc"

Well, after saying "never" to the backstop - and then signing a "frontstop", which was a significant concession

and "I'm not going to stop shaking hands" ... until he stopped

he's showed you he would go back on anything he says

• but everyone should have known that before

He is a blow-hard, who blows with the wind
Let's hope his latest blown U-turn is not too late

yoikes I'm so sorry 💐

bigchocfrenzy certificates for grading this year will be no different to others we have been told and hopefully employers in years to come will remember why this year's cohort were denied the chance of sitting exams.
My DD working in social care has not been issued with upgraded pp to deal with Covid yet. Her unit goes into lock down on Monday ( young adults with severe autism and learning difficulties) they will only be allowed out for brief walks. I can't imagine what the workers will have to struggle with and more importantly the clients who will not understand what is going on and will be confused and frightened by a change to routine which cannot be helped. And all that for minimum wage zero contract hours.

Update from Grinchly Towers.

I did the 111 online diagnostic and the result was call 111.

I did so, expecting to be on for hours. Answered in 20 mins. Took all details. Not the usual robotic script palaver. Called back almost immediately by a clinician. Told story again. She diagnosed viral illness and instructions on self care at home. Said out of abundance caution ooh would ring. Expected that to take many hours.

Perhaps an hour later call back came from GP. Told story again. Upshot high likelihood it's coronavirus. Can't be sure obviously but she said it matched many accounts. Symptoms vary considerably.

Astonished and grateful it was so efficient, have read so much of it taking hours. Maybe I was just lucky.

I feel very rubbish but paracetamol takes edge off.

Hope you recover quickly grinchly

Thanks Sos

Today was a bit easier in shops. Well better than the 4 hours spent on getting milk the other day. Could not get Tim tomatoes though and decided I did not want to risk going to more shops.

That's excellent, GRinchly
Look after yourself - is someone with you ?

I was reading on twitter from someone who had phoned 111 with CV symptoms of high fever etc and took hours to get through;
he was then told to stay home - and only phone again if he couldn't breathe

Only the three furry overlords BCF
They are being very solicitous.